DAN HODGES: Why Labour bigwigs already marvel if this might be Starmer’s first – and solely Christmas – in Downing Street

Labour MPs have begun to think the unthinkable. ‘There are two big events coming up next year,’ a Cabinet minister told me. ‘In May, the local elections. And then, soon after, we’ll have the first anniversary of our victory. At that moment, people will look back, reflect and ask themselves, “What have we done with our first year?”’

What might they conclude, I asked. ‘Oh God! Time is already running out to change things!’ was the reply.

Last week, precipitated primarily by the outcry over Sir Keir Starmer’s perceived betrayal of the Waspi women, something shifted within the Government and the Labour Party. Confidence in the Prime Minister – already badly dented by a series of unforced errors and a seemingly unrelenting diet of negative economic news – fractured.

‘We don’t know why they did it,’ another minister told me. ‘But it was just another avoidable blunder. And the reality is that Keir has been making too many of them.’

It’s important to understand what this change of tone means in a practical political sense.

In the minutes after Joe Biden’s game-changing debate with Donald Trump, CNN political analyst John King famously announced: ‘Right now, as we speak, there is a deep, wide and very aggressive panic in the Democratic Party.’ His words effectively marked the end of the Biden presidency.

We have not yet reached our John King moment. Panicked Labour donors are not ringing round, demanding a posse of party greybeards march up Downing Street and ask for the PM’s resignation. Wes Streeting is not installing phone lines in a leadership campaign HQ.

But discussions are now being held among Labour MPs – including Cabinet ministers – about the potential need to remove Starmer if his personal performance, the Government’s delivery and the party’s ratings do not improve.

Part of the trigger for this has, ironically, been some positive changes within the Downing Street machine. The appointment of Morgan McSweeney as Starmer’s chief of staff, and the less heralded arrival of well-respected former lobby journalist James Lyons, is seen to have stabilised the No 10 operation.

Communications director Matthew Doyle, who was initially perceived by some to be out of his depth, is now said to be finding his feet. But the blunders have continued.

‘In the beginning, everyone was pointing at Sue Gray [Starmer’s former chief of staff, who was sacked in October] and saying No 10 was completely dysfunctional,’ a minister told me.

‘But now it’s functioning OK. Keir’s got good people around him. So if you’ve got a good squad and the team keeps getting thumped 5-0, what do you do? You have no choice but to point the finger at the manager.’

This heresy is allied to a growing willingness within Cabinet to acknowledge a hitherto unspoken truth. Aficionados of the Tom Cruise Top Gun films are aware of the concept of a ‘hard-deck’, an altitude level below which the USA’s elite aviators are prohibited from flying for fear of endangering their aircraft and themselves.

‘At the time, everyone got caught up in the Election win, and our Commons majority,’ one Labour strategist told me. ‘But the truth is our vote share of 34 per cent was too low. Yes, we slipped below the hard-deck. A point or two lower and it would have been a total disaster.’

A succession of self-inflicted wounds, Starmer’s lack of engagement and energy, his apparent addiction to foreign trips and an inability to turn round his dire personal approval numbers have prompted some in the Cabinet to engage in a hypothetical audit of what qualities are required from a Prime Minister and, in turn, align them with the current incumbent.

Their verdict is not a positive one. As a campaigner, Starmer is seen as wooden and uninspiring. He’s been unable to set out a compelling political vision or, in the words of one minister, ‘tell the story of what the Government is trying to achieve’.

His reputation as an efficient manager and delegator has been tarnished by the Sue Gray debacle. He has proffered no significant new or original policy ideas. He’s seen as politically naive and, indeed, has admitted to allies he doesn’t really understand politics. And he seems to lack a hunger for the job he has inherited.

All of which is leading even previously loyal ministers to ask a searching question. Now Starmer has successfully carried the Ming vase into Downing Street, what actually is the point of him any more?

As one MP told me: ‘If you look around the Cabinet, Wes Streeting is more articulate and ambitious. Yvette Cooper is more focused on detail and delivery. Rachel Reeves understands the party better. Bridget Phillipson has a better policy vision. Pat McFadden is a better political manager. Angela Rayner connects more with our key voters. So what box does Keir actually tick?’

Starmer’s allies concede he’s had a rocky start to his premiership. But they insist there are parallels with his equally difficult induction as party leader.

‘It reminds me of that first year after he replaced Corbyn,’ one minister recalled. ‘The country was stuck in Covid; he couldn’t cut through. Boris was popular and people were already writing Keir off. But behind the scenes he was putting in the hard graft to turn things around.’

But the problem now for Starmer is that even his own Cabinet believe things are destined to get worse – a lot worse – before they get better.

‘When we get into the New Year, the new spending round will start,’ one minister told me. ‘And that means we’re going to start seeing some serious cuts. Is that what people really voted for? A slashing of public services? And is that going to turn our ratings around?’

A growing number of Labour MPs fear the answer to that question is ‘no’.

Many have slender majorities. And while they see little immediate danger from Kemi Badenoch and her broken party, they are starting to cast increasingly nervous glances over their shoulders at Nigel Farage and his Reform insurgents.

‘People keep saying there’s going to be a Reform breakthrough,’ one Labour MP told me. ‘Well, if you come out on the doorsteps in my patch, they’ve already broken through. The question is whether we can beat them back. And whether Keir is the man to beat them back.’

Sir Keir Starmer is about to celebrate his first Christmas in Downing Street. And, for the first time, some of his colleagues are beginning to picture a scenario where it’s his last.

So what qualities are required to be PM and does he measure up?