Underwater ‘submarine volcano’ set to erupt in 2025 after ‘swelling’ say boffins
Scientists predict an undersea volcano will erupt in 2025, the volcano has been dubbed ‘the most well-instrumented submarine volcano’ on the planet and activity is imminent
An undersea volcano, 470 km off the coast of Oregon, is likely to erupt sometime in 2025. Forecasting eruptions more than hours ahead is considered “pretty unique” and this much of an advanced notice by scientists is considered a big deal.
The volcano, known as Axial Seamount, ticks all of the boxes that hint at imminent activity. The submarine volcano is considered by scientists to be 1,100 meters tall, has a diameter of 2km and is located at 1,400m below sea level.
Over the past decade a number of devices have monitored every action of rumbling, shaking, swelling, and titling from the volcano in real time via a seafloor cable.
Geologist Mark Zumberge, at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, has dubbed the volcano “the most well-instrumented submarine volcano on the planet”.
In November, Axail’s surface ballooned to the same height as before its last eruption in 2015. The ballooning was a sign that magma had accumulated underground as the pressure inside the volcano began to build up.
Similar swelling in 2015 allowed researchers at Oregon State University to predict the eruption that year which they dubbed “our best forecasting success” and similar activity alongside increased seismic activity have led researchers to predict the next one.
The broader team Axial researchers have recently started using artificial intelligence to dig up recordings of earthquakes that preceded the 2015 eruption to identify what patterns they should look out for following the hours before the next eruption.
“There’s no crystal ball,” says Valerio Acocella, a volcanologist at Roma Tre University, Rome. Acocella has labelled Axial as a “very promising volcano” and due to its frequent eruptions each one is an opportunity to test ideas. “We need ideal cases to understand how volcanos work,” he said.
Despite the Volcano’s nature he also adds: “There’s always a risk that a Volcano will follow a pattern that we haven’t seen before and do something unexpected.”
No matter what happens in 2025 Axial’s eruption will not radically change the world of eruption forecasting, but Acocella says: “We’ll understand it better and that will help us understand other volcanoes, too.”
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