Nigel Farage’s Reform ‘respiration down Kemi Badenoch’s neck’ as ballot reveals Tory collapse

A top pollster has warned Reform UK is breathing down Kemi Badenoch’s neck as a survey showed the Tories being pushed into third place.

Professor Sir John Curtice told The Mirror Nigel Farage’s right-wing party was finding it “easier” to eat into the Conservative vote than it was in attracting Labour voters. It came as a poll by YouGov found Reform almost tied with Labour – 26% versus 25% – but leapfrogging the Conservatives on just 22% – two months after Ms Badenoch became leader.

The Liberal Democrats, who won an extra 64 MPs at the 2024 general election, are on 14% while the Greens are on 8%, according to the survey.

Sir John said that while some Labour voters are defecting to Reform, they are also heading to the other political parties at Westminster, including the Lib Dems and Greens. He said: “It’s true more are going to Reform now than were willing to do so back in July but it isn’t the case of Labour voters simply going to Reform.

“What is also true… while Reform are indeed to some degree eating into the Labour vote they are finding it easier to eat into the Tory vote. Having now taken all the polls that have come out since Christmas, what you do find, Labour’s vote is down slightly – but it’s marginal.

“What does seem to be the story since Christmas is indeed Reform are further up – they are now running on average 24, which is up three on what they were running in December. But the Tories are primarily down – down two, Labour done one.

“The rise of Reform is at least as much a problem for the Tories as it is for Labour.”

Sir John said Ms Badenoch, who took over from Rishi Sunak in November to rebuild the Tories after their worst-ever election result, was “still largely unknown to the public”.

He said: “We’re waiting to see what appeal she [Ms Badenoch] can make but she’s still a relatively unknown character. She is not immediately making the weather and you can see how Farage is breathing down her neck. Who has tended to win the battle to take the initiative on the airwaves? It is Reform.”

Sir John also suggested the political world “changed” in July at the General Election. He said: “We are no longer in a world where you can just worry about your principal opponents on the other side of the House of Commons.

“Folk who aren’t happy with Labour, they aren’t just wandering off to the ‘pro-right’ in the form of the Reform or the Tories. They are also wandering off to ‘left’ to the Greens and the Liberal Democrats. This is a challenge now that both Tory and Labour face – they no longer are simply in competition with each other with the Lib Dems being a bit of a nuisance in the middle.

“The Tories face competition from Reform and Labour potentially – although at the moment it’s not as serious – face competition from the Greens. We have now got five-way politics and you can no longer assume that there is nowhere for voters to go if you decide to head to the centre.”