Odds of an asteroid influence in lower than 10 years have gone up – now it is 1 in 43

It seems like the chances of a 60-metre-wide asteroid crashing into earth has gone up, but there’s not need to fear according to experts who explain why it’s not all doom and gloom

The odds of an asteroid colliding with earth in 2032 have gone up, but experts say it’s nothing to worry about.

Asteroid bigwigs expect that the impact probability of the asteroid 2024 YR4 is set to increase. However, once understanding around the asteroid’s orbit increases, the chance of an impact is set to fall dramatically.

Asteroid hunter David Rankin first “pre-covered” (short for pre-discovery recovery) asteroid 2024 YR4 in data from the Catalina Sky Survey. In simple terms, this means he was able to find images of the space rock in archival data that was gathered before it was officially discovered by the scientists.

When the odds were first reported by Space.com, it were just 1 in 83. Now, it’s increased to 1 in 43. Scary, right? On the surface, it sounds like chances of a strike have almost doubled — but there is another way to present those numbers.

Broken down, a 1-in-83 chance of an impact represented a 1.2% chance of an impact. This means that there was a 98.8% that 2024 YR4 would miss Earth.

The new figure of 1-in-43 represents a 2.3% chance of a strike. Rankin said: “That means we are still at 97.7% chance of a miss from this asteroid.”

The asteroid expert also isn’t surprised that the chance of the 60-metre-wide asteroid hitting earth has increased. But at the same time, he’s certain the odds will fall again. He told Space.com: “We still expect that to start falling at some point. People should absolutely not worry about this yet.”

When it comes to newly uncovered asteroids, certain aspects of their orbit are essentially overestimated.

Rankin explained: “We end up with a good understanding of the plane in space that the asteroid is orbiting on, but not exactly where along that plane it will be. This manifests with uncertainty along a confined line, called the line of variation.”

For 2024 YR4, the centre of that distribution passes close to the Earth. So with every update, Rankin said, the uncertainty changes. This has the effect of slightly increasing the odds that it will hit the Earth, even though the most likely outcome remains a miss.

Rankin explained that a lot of the uncertainty along the line of variation comes from the fact that it is difficult to confine the aphelion distance (the distance at which an object is at its furthest from the sun) for a newly-confirmed asteroid.

In 2024 YR4 is currently outbound, heading away from Earth, meaning it is difficult to observe. Rankin and colleagues will continue to track this space rock throughout February 2025 with 8-meter telescopes at the Catalina Sky Survey.

Rankin added: “When you can extend that to a new apparition after it’s gone around the sun again, or using archival data, the uncertainty drops dramatically.”

Additionally, teams of scientists around the globe are scanning archival data from 2016, when the asteroid was last visible to us.