‘Keir Starmer will stroll tightrope with unstable Donald Trump on Washington journey’

Behind the scenes, there are major frustrations in government about how the carefully laid plans keep being torpedoed every day by pronouncements from Washington.

European leaders are now scrambling to stop Mr Trump from striking a deal with Vladimir Putin that damages security on the continent and betrays Kyiv. This will be the top item on the agenda at an emergency summit in France today on what is shaping up to be a critical week for the future of Ukraine.

Mr Starmer will have to walk a tight-rope with Mr Trump next week, where he is expected to focus on the most pressing issues, which are defence and security, and economy and trade. Downing Street sees this as a critical chance to focus on the big picture of national security.

It is a chance to persuade Mr Trump that Europe accepts his demand to step up on defence. This will only ramp up pressure on Mr Starmer on defence spending, as the government is still tight-lipped on how – and when – it will increase the defence budget to 2.5% of GDP as promised.

There is not expected to be an announcement before the White House visit but No10 is understood to be resisting calls from defence chiefs to raise spending even further.

The PM has so far avoided being drawn into a row with the mercurial President, conscious that this is the new normal. But this strategy is already being pushed to breaking point.

Child poverty row looms

What to do about Britain’s grim child poverty levels is shaping up to be a major row in the coming months. Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall has been handed the tough task of bringing down the benefits bill and spearheading the government’s child poverty strategy.

Ms Kendall, who spent years chairing anti-hunger programme Feeding Leicester, knows that the government cannot go into the next election with child poverty on the rise, for both moral and political reasons.

One particularly thorny issue is the two-child benefit limit, which is hated by many Labour MPs. There will be an almighty row if the strategy is all warm words but no action. The big question is whether she can get the money needed to make meaningful change.

Pinch of salt for Reeves speculation

Speculation about Rachel Reeves’ future should be taken with a pinch of salt. Fantasy reshuffle is one of Westminster’s favourite games but everyone got too hooked on the sugar rush of Tory chaos.

The Chancellor has definitely had a turbulent start and the road ahead is treacherous as she tries to fire up the economy. But those saying her days are numbered miss the fact that her growth strategy is the government’s strategy now.

And no PM could sack a Chancellor this early without serious questions about their own judgment.

Bad week for Kemi

The knives are out for Kemi Badenoch after a particularly dire PMQs performance last week. Tory mutterings have been growing louder after an underwhelming 100 days, during which the party has slumped behind Reform UK in the polls.

In a recent YouGov poll, just 14% said they believed Ms Badenoch looked like a PM in waiting. Only 26% of Tories thought she looked ready to be in No10.

A mauling at the local elections in May could prove a flashpoint for unhappy Tories.

Labour needs to shout about its workers’ rights reforms.

Business lobby groups and right-wingers have been moaning about the policy and trying to position it as a block on the government’s bid for growth. But the plans are not only a proper Labour policy, they are also hugely popular with voters, including those who chose Tory or Reform at the last election.

Finding a way to fix work so people get proper pay and respect is a good way to counter Nigel Farage’s snake oil.