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Elon Musk predicts ‘20% probability of annihilation’ at arms of hyper-intelligent AI robots

The world’s richest man, Elon Musk, said he was optimistic about the future of AI technology but admitted there is a one in five chance that they could destroy all of humanity

Elon Musk speaks during the annual Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) at the Gaylord National Resort & Convention Center at National Harbor in Oxon Hill, Maryland, on February 20, 2025. (Photo by SAUL LOEB / AFP) (Photo by SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images)
Elon Musk has predicted the chance of robots destroying humanity(Image: AFP via Getty Images)

Elon Musk has predicted that there’s a 20% change of “annihilation” at the hands of psycho chatbots.

The world’s richest man, who recently celebrated his ’14th child’ with Neuralink employee Shivon Zilis, said he believed artificial intelligence would be smarter than any individual person in the next year or two. And within the next five years AI will be even more powerful than humanity, he suggested.

Despite his US Government DOGE department recently ‘accidentally cancelling’ plans to deal with a potential Ebola outbreak, Musk is still seen by some as a tech guru.

And discussing the rise of AI tech, he said: “There’s a level beyond which is smarter than all humans combined, which, frankly, is around 2029 or 2030. Probably right on time.”

TOPSHOT - -- AFP PICTURES OF THE YEAR 2023 --  Humanoid AI robot "Ameca" looks on at the booth of Engineered Arts company during the world's largest gathering of humanoid AI Robots as part of International Telecommunication Union (ITU) AI for Good Global Summit in Geneva, on July 5, 2023.. The United Nations is convening this week a global gathering to try to map out the frontiers of artificial intelligence and to harness its potential for empowering humanity, hoping to lay out a clear blueprint on the way forward for handling AI, as development of the technology races ahead the capacity to set its boundaries. (Photo by Fabrice COFFRINI / AFP) / AFP PICTURES OF THE YEAR 2023 (Photo by FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP via Getty Images)
AI could be smarter than all of humanity in the next five years(Image: AFP via Getty Images)

The billionaire said he believed that there was an 80% chance there’d be a good outcome from the machines but warned the technology is “something we should be worried about”.

The X owner told The Joe Rogan Experience podcast: “The probability of a good outcome is like 80% likely. That’s my rough estimate.

“So in a way, the cup is 80% full. Only 20% chance of annihilation.”

He also talked about his dream of colonising Mars, a plan which he called “incredibly important in ensuring the long-term survival of civilisation”.

He said: “Can we make Mars self-sufficient before civilisation has some sort of future fork in the road where there’s either, like, a war, nuclear war or something, or we get hit by a meteor or simply civilisation might just die with a whimper.”

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And he said he reckons AI sex robots will be available in “less than five years probably”.

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