BUSINESS LIVE: Inflation eases to 2.8%; Chancellor prepares Spring Statement; Vistry earnings plummet

Myron Jobson, senior personal finance analyst at Interactive Investor:

‘The lower than expected fall in inflation offers scant relief for the Chancellor ahead of the Spring Statement as the real litmus test for inflation will take place in the coming months, following rises in utility and other household bills in April and once the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariff wars starts to filter through.

‘The dip in inflation in February was largely down to the discounting of clothing items – which is a volatile component. It reflects bumpier progress on inflation’s path back to the Bank of England’s 2%, with the inflation landscape becoming increasingly uncertain as various economic factors begin to take effect. The UK’s central bank has warned that inflation could spike to 3.7% later this year before falling.

‘Looking beyond the headline figure, the continued easing of core inflation, which strips out volatile food and fuel costs to gain a clearer sense of the underlying trend, could offer some assurance to the Bank of England to cut interest rates in May.’

Smiths Group offered the City some lukewarm support yesterday by saying it would stay listed in London – at least for now.

The engineering group, which makes airport baggage-screening kits and explosive detectors, has been urged by US activist investor Engine Capital to explore a move to New York.

Nathaniel Casey, investment strategist at Evelyn Partners:

‘The Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) is expected to deliver a downgraded UK growth outlook which could wipe out the fiscal headroom that she created during the Budget last Autumn.

‘With a slashed growth outlook and inflation still proving stubborn, Reeves faces a challenging task later today when she delivers her Spring Statement as she tries to balance the economy’s need for growth while balancing the books and staying within her own fiscal rules.

‘With rising energy price caps expected over the coming quarters, the BoE will have to balance the risks of low growth and above-target inflation. In our view, the growth risks outweigh the inflation risks, and the Bank will cautiously continue its interest rate cutting cycle over the coming quarters.’

Rob Morgan, chief investment analyst at Charles Stanley

‘Although the worst of the cost-of-living crisis is fading into the distance households cannot rest on their laurels. UK inflation remained stubborn in February at an annual 2.8%, moderating slightly from the 3.0% seen the previous month.

‘However, it’s only a speck of good news. Price rises are forecast to move in the wrong direction most of this year following a small lull. Services inflation also remains stubbornly strong at 5% and continues to drag inflation away from target.

‘CPI is expected to hit 3.7% in the third quarter, according to the latest forecast from the Bank of England, driven by higher energy and utility costs.

‘The saving grace for some households is that resilient wage growth is ahead of price rises for the time being, although the relentless drag of frozen tax bands is watering down the positive effect on disposable income.’

Inflation eased by slightly more than expected in February, falling to 2.8 per cent from 3 per cent the previous month, according to the Office for National Statistics.

The fresh data comes ahead of Rachel Reeves’ inaugural Spring Budget, with the Chancellor expected set to outline more than £10billion of spending cuts in efforts to plug a £22billlion fiscal black hole.