How shut are China and America to triggering World War 3? Edward Alden tells the Mail’s ‘Apocalypse Now?’ podcast how the 2 superpowers might ‘blunder’ into devastating world battle

The ongoing trade war between Trump’s America and China poses perilous risks to global security, foreign relationships expert Edward Alden has told the Mail’s ‘Apocalypse Now?’ podcast.

In conversation with special correspondent David Patrikarakos, Alden argued that America’s record 125% tariff against China will make trade between the two nations effectively impossible.

This economic decoupling leaves both sides scrambling to grow their spheres of influence, increasing the chances of military conflict.

Edward Alden is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and an author who specialises in works analysing global trade.

‘While I don’t think either side wants a head-on conflict’, Alden said.

‘We saw during the First World War in Europe how countries can blunder into wars in the pursuit of a balance of power.

‘Having political and strategic rivals can lead countries into doing stupid things, which end up in conflicts neither side wants.

‘I don’t think China or the United States wants any form of military conflict, but this sort of economic warfare can lead to dangerous places.’

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Edward Alden: ‘I don’t see Trump as someone who would be personally hostile to Xi Jinping’ Listen here

Edward Alden: ‘There’s a lot of worry about the rise of China, about China’s growing influence’ Listen here

Alden said that although Trump has set out his stall as a president who is vehemently anti-war, there are more hawkish elements of his administration that may be able to influence his decision-making.

‘I don’t see Trump as someone who would be personally hostile to Xi Jinping’, Alden argued.

‘He respects strongmen leaders, and I think he quite likes Xi – but there are certain people in his administration that are extremely hawkish.

‘Most notably, Peter Navarro, his trade advisor – he has dark views about China and sees conflict as inevitable. So, there are people close to Trump pushing in the direction of greater conflict.

‘I don’t see Trump trying to do things that lead us into war. But intentions aren’t always what leads us to outcomes.

‘Things happen in unexpected ways. We’ve seen with this trade war, that if you asked Trump two weeks ago, do you want to see the US impose a 125% tariff on China, he would’ve said no, that’s ridiculous. And yet, here we are.’

Asked to speculate as to what Trump might do next, Alden said it was unlikely the President would stop his trade war given the support from the American public for measures that are tough on China.

‘Of course, Trump could change course’, Alden emphasised.

Edward Alden: ‘Peter Navarro, Trump’s trade advisor, has dark views about China and sees conflict as inevitable’ Listen here

Edward Alden: ”We saw during the First World War in Europe how countries can blunder into wars in the pursuit of a balance of power’ Listen here

‘But this is a hard thing to walk away from. Unlike the tariffs against Canada, Mexico and the European Union, there is a fair bit of support in the establishment for tougher measures toward China.

‘There‘s a lot of worry about the rise of China, about China’s growing influence. This trade war will be harder to turn off than the conflicts with other countries.’

Apocalypse Now? is a brand-new weekly global news podcast hosted by the Daily Mail’s special correspondent and best-selling author David Patrikarakos.

Every episode promises a panel of guests who are on the frontline of the geopolitical world as it threatens to spin off its axis.

Each week, listeners can expect informed analysis, discussion, and on-the-ground reporting about the most influential diplomatic flashpoints.

From President Trump rewriting American foreign policy at will and war in Europe, to hostilities in the Middle East and the resurgence of Isis – has world order ever felt so uncertain?

You can listen to ‘Apocalypse Now?’ wherever you get your podcasts. New episodes are released every Thursday.