Trump seems to have had the week of his life. Don’t be fooled: MARK HALPERIN

There is at least one maxim of the American presidency that Donald Trump, for all his efforts to break precedent and convention, still finds himself subject to: nothing easy to solve gets to the Oval Office inbox. By the time a problem lands on the president’s desk, it is layered with fraught politics, division and risk. The decisions are rarely clean. The consequences always are.

Trump, of course, complicates this further by often seeking out fights of choice, rather than restricting himself to the crises that find him. He relishes conflict, believing—often correctly—that struggle itself can be a proving ground and yield an incremental victory of sorts. 

It explains why he can secure something as ambitious and improbable as a Middle East peace framework while failing to pry loose, so far at least, a handful of Senate Democrats in order to end a government shutdown on his terms. The man who can bring enemies to the table in Egypt cannot compel fence-sitters in Washington to cross the aisle.

Barack Obama might not be applauding Trump for his Middle East victory, but the Holy Trinity (David Ignatius, Peggy Noonan and Tom Friedman) is.

And the president did manage some other tangible political traction this week—especially in New Jersey, where the GOP‘s gubernatorial ticket under Jack Ciattarelli has crept into a tie in many polls. In a state long Blue, that closeness represents both opportunity and pressure for Trump’s influence. Ciattarelli’s momentum comes despite the fact — maybe even because of the fact — that the Democrats’ main line of attack against him is that he is a Trump Mini Me.

The indictment of New York Attorney General Tish James is another clear sign of Trump’s control over his Justice Department and a sweet victory for a man whose ability to settle scores on this front for the moment matches his long-running capacity to keep score.

But the week also brought sharp reminders of the legal and political constraints that the Maven of Mar-a-Lago is bumping into. In Illinois, a federal judge blocked Trump’s attempt to deploy National Guard troops to Chicago, holding that the administration’s evidence for rebellion was insufficient and that the deployment risked violating constitutional limits. 

Similar resistance has appeared in Oregon, where a judge temporarily barred deployment of National Guard troops pending review, signaling that federal authority over state military forces is not unlimited, part of a wider pattern of judicial losses chronicled today by the Washington Post. Meanwhile, the Republican governor of Oklahoma, Kevin Stitt, broke with Trump’s approach, publicly criticizing the sending of out-of-state Guard units into Democratic states without the consent of local leaders.

Trump, of course, complicates this further by often seeking out fights of choice, rather than restricting himself to the crises that find him

The indictment of New York Attorney General Tish James is another clear sign of Trump’s control over his Justice Department and a sweet victory for a man whose ability to settle scores on this front for the moment matches his long-running capacity to keep score

On the existential redistricting front, Team Trump is facing setbacks in both California and Indiana this week, with balky donors and Republican legislators, respectively, threatening defeats.

What explains the contrast between win and loss? The pattern suggests that Trump’s victories tend to come when he gets to frame the contest on his terms—as spectacle, moral drama, or direct confrontation. 

The New Jersey race becomes a stage for MAGA politics; the peace deal a high-stakes act driven by force of personality. But when the contest depends on institutional constraints, legal boundaries, or internal coalitions, Trump often chafes and stalls. The shutdown is not resolved on a rally stage or Truth Social; it is won through negotiation, compromise, behind-the-scenes work. He can lob accusations; he cannot always deliver votes or legal rulings.

This tension is sharpened when state sovereignty or local power resists. Governors refuse to acquiesce. Courts reject overreach. Legislatures balk. The rhetoric may thrill his base, but the machinery of governance demands more than flair.

Looking ahead, China looms as another existential test. Xi Jinping will almost certainly avoid being drawn into a dramatic confrontation unless the terms favor Beijing. Trump will get his headline summit, perhaps trade concessions or symbolic breakthrough. But Xi’s strategy is built on steady leverage, calibrated pressure, and patient economic dominance. 

The president did manage some other tangible political traction this week—especially in New Jersey, where the GOP ‘s gubernatorial ticket under Jack Ciattarelli (pictured) has crept into a tie in many polls

In Illinois, a federal judge blocked Trump’s attempt to deploy National Guard troops to Chicago (pictured, above), holding that the administration’s evidence for rebellion was insufficient and that the deployment risked violating constitutional limits.

Trump may score announcements or photo ops, but extracting meaningful commitments on intellectual property, Taiwan, or supply chains will be a far harder fight. In that arena, structural advantages tilt toward China, a reminder that came this week with their rare earth minerals pronouncement, which Trump Thursday vaguely pledged to counter.

Domestically, the shutdown remains unresolved. The contrast between grandeur abroad and gridlock at home is a perennial presidential tension—but for Trump, whose appeal rests in disruption, it becomes an internal contradiction. Over time, the key question won’t be whether he can win dramatic battles, but whether he can convert them into sustainable authority across courts, state governments, and legislatures. And, of course and most of all, whether he can revive economic momentum.

Trump’s week was again a tapestry of spectacle and stumbles. He will trumpet the tightening New Jersey numbers and the Middle East peace pact, and he will cast legal setbacks and internal resistance as betrayals or miscalculations. But in the domain of power, performance is only the opening gambit; persistence, persuasion, and institutional navigation decide lasting victory—and on those fronts, his greatest tests still lie ahead.