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Now shameless Rachel Reeves moans there have been ‘too many leaks’ about Budget as she tells MPs she’s attempting to find a mole (however it undoubtedly wasn’t her)

Rachel Reeves admitted there were ‘too many leaks’ about the Budget and they were ‘very damaging’ as she was grilled by MPs today.  

The Chancellor insisted she was ‘frustrated’ and is now ‘doing something about it’ by launching an official probe into who was responsible.

She told the Treasury Select Committee that a ‘review’ is also being conducted into the department’s ‘security processes’. 

But Ms Reeves herself has been accused of talking up a ‘black hole’ in the public finances that effectively did not exist to justify another massive round of hikes. 

The OBR told the Treasury as long ago as September that a downgrade to long-term productivity estimates had been offset by higher tax revenues and inflation.

By the end of October Ms Reeves had been told the books were in a small surplus, with only Labour’s humiliating U-turns on benefits curbs and axing winter fuel allowance pushing them into the red. 

However, Ms Reeves still called a press conference on November 4 stressing the bleak situation, before hammering the country with another £30billion of tax increases at the Budget.

Rachel Reeves has been accused of talking up a ‘black hole’ in the public finances that effectively did not exist to justify another massive round of hikes

Treasury Committee chair Meg Hillier was leading the questioning of the Chancellor this morning

Treasury Committee chair Meg Hillier was leading the questioning of the Chancellor this morning

A letter from the OBR to the Treasury Select Committee has spelled out the timetable of exactly what forecasts were provided to the Chancellor as she drew up her Budget package

A letter from the OBR to the Treasury Select Committee has spelled out the timetable of exactly what forecasts were provided to the Chancellor as she drew up her Budget package

Timeline of Treasury’s Budget outrage 

September 17: OBR gives initial forecasts to the Treasury showing that higher tax revenues have largely wiped out £21billion of productivity downgrades.   

October 31: OBR’s last pre-measures forecasts are handed over. The Chancellor is told she is meeting her fiscal rules with £4billion of headroom on the current spending balance element.

November 4: Rachel Reeves gives a highly unusual pre-Budget ‘scene setter’ speech in Downing Street. She refers to productivity downgrades – but not the tax upgrades – and says they will have ‘consequences’. 

This is widely taken as a signal income tax will be hiked, a conclusion the Treasury does not discourage. 

November 10: The Chancellor doubles down on her dire warnings in a BBC interview, suggesting the only way to avoid breaking the manifesto would be to cut capital spending. She has already been adamant this is something she will not do.

November 13-14: The Financial Times sparks pandemonium by reporting that the income tax rise plan has been ditched.

The gilts market rises sharply as traders price in risk that Ms Reeves is not serious about balancing the books.

In order to contain the situation government sources brief journalists the following morning that the idea has been dropped because the OBR has upgraded tax revenue forecasts. However, they still stress that Ms Reeves has a big hole to fill.

November 26: After another week of confusion Ms Reeves unveils a Budget that imposes £30billion a year of extra tax on Britons by 2030-31. A large portion of the extra money goes toward extra benefits spending, including £3billion on axing the two-child cap on benefits – something mutinous Labour MPs have been clamouring for. 

The OBR forecasts released alongside the Budget show that Ms Reeves’ headroom had only been reduced by £6billion since March.

The Chancellor uses some of the projected extra tax revenue to rebuild her headroom to more than £20billion.

November 28: The Treasury Select Committee publishes a letter from OBR chief Richard Hughes laying out in detail what forecasts they gave to the government.   

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She used some of the money to cave to mutinous Labour MPs by scrapping the two-child benefit cap, as well as increasing the ‘headroom’ in the finances to help calm nervous markets.

Treasury officials have been ordered to carry out a leak inquiry into briefings that misrepresented economic forecasts the department was being given privately.

Permanent secretary James Bowler said this morning that it will examine ministers, officials and advisers. 

The Financial Conduct Authority has warned it could launch an investigation into the situation if it is not satisfied with the findings. 

Ms Reeves confirmed this morning that the leak inquiry will focus on briefings on November 13 that she branded ‘partial and inaccurate’.

On November 13 the Financial Times broke a story saying that the government had abandoned a widely-briefed plan to breach the Labour manifesto by increasing income tax.

That sparked pandemonium on the gilts market, with interest on government debt rising sharply as traders priced in risk that Ms Reeves was not serious about balancing the books.

In order to contain the situation government sources briefed a number of journalists on November 14 that the idea had been dropped because the OBR had recently upgraded tax revenue forecasts.

However, an exact timetable of forecasts released by the OBR later showed that was not the case.

The watchdog has made clear it was infuriated by the suggestion that its forecasts had improved late in the process. 

Ms Reeves said this morning of the FT story: ‘It was not an off the record briefing. It was a leak.’

She added: ‘It was incredibly damaging and frustrating…

‘It was not something that was signed off by me, any of my ministers… ‘

Ms Reeves kicked off the session by saying she was ‘grateful’ to have the ‘opportunity to… reiterate in the strongest terms that leaks are unacceptable’.

‘The Budget had too much speculation. There were too many leaks, and much of that, those leaks and speculation, were inaccurate, very damaging, as well as the IT security issues… The OBR’s report also noted that the spring statement had been accessed early as well,’ she said.

‘I want to say on the record how frustrated I am and have been by these incidents and the volume of speculation and leaks, and that is why I am doing something about it, because we cannot allow this to happen again.

‘A leak inquiry is under way with my full support, being led by the permanent secretary at the Treasury, and we are also conducting a review of the Treasury security processes to inform future fiscal events.

‘We also clearly need to look explicitly at physical IT security.

‘The Treasury have asked the National Centre for Cyber Security to undertake a forensic examination of recent economic and financial outlooks.

‘The outcome of that review, of course, will be public, and we’ll write to you with the outcomes of that review.’

Even Labour MPs have suggested the leak probe is a sham, observing that such investigations almost never find a culprit.

The Tories have called for the FCA to hold an investigation into whether market abuses took place. 

In a letter to the Treasury Select Committee, FCA chief executive Nikhil Rathi said the organisation’s ‘purpose is not to make judgments on political discourse, even though that discourse may on occasion have an impact on markets’.

However, he did not rule out holding a probe, noting the government’s ongoing leak inquiry. 

‘We have requested details of this work and that the outcome, including of the inquiry into any leak of market sensitive or inside information relating to the Budget, is shared with us so we can consider as appropriate,’ he added. 

Brits appear to be running out of patience with Labour according to a poll released yesterday that showed the proportion saying the government taxes and spends too much at a six-year high.

YouGov research found 45 per cent believe the burden of the state is too great, while a fifth thought taxes and spending was too low.

The level of dissatisfaction has not been worse since the firm started tracking it in 2019, while just 11 per cent said the balance was right. 

The tax burden is due to reach a new peak as a proportion of GDP in records that go back more than 300 years. 

After the ‘stealth’ freeze on thresholds was extended by another three years, a quarter of the working population is set to be paying higher or top rate tax by 2031.

That is up from just 15 per cent when the freeze began in 2021. 

The Financial Conduct Authority has warned that it could launch an investigation into the situation if it is not satisfied with the leak inquiry findings

The Financial Conduct Authority has warned that it could launch an investigation into the situation if it is not satisfied with the leak inquiry findings