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Robert Jenrick tipped as favorite to succeed Nigel Farage as Reform chief as odds slashed in wake of sacking: Live response and updates

Robert Jenrick has been tipped by bookmakers as the frontrunner to succeed Nigel Farage as Reform party leader following his dramatic dismissal from the Conservative frontbench today.

Kemi Badenoch ruthlessly kicked the shadow justice secretary and her former leadership rival out of the party following an apparent plot to defect.

It is claimed Mr Jenrick was sacked after colleagues discovered a near-completed resignation speech lying around. Mr Jenrick is yet to issue a response to his dismissal but is said to have protested his innocence to Tory chief whip Rebecca Harris.

Nigel Farage claimed he was ‘very surprised’ by Mr Jenrick’s sacking as he denied plans to unveil him as Reform’s latest defection in London later today.

According to Oddschecker, one bookies has dropped their price from 20/1 to 4/1 within half an hour of Ms Badenoch’s announcement, making him a frontrunner to succeed Mr Farage as Reform’s next leader.

Additionally, Betfred has dropped the odds from 10/1 to odds-on 8/13 on him becoming the next Tory leader while Bet365 has enlisted him the favourite to succeed Ms Badenoch at 11/8 from 8/1. 

Follow the latest updates and reaction below

Watch: Nigel Farage says he’s ‘very surprised’ by Jenrick sacking

Reacting to Kemi Badenoch’s announcement she has sacked Robert Jenrick from her front bench, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage said:

I’m very surprised that this news is broken.

Asked if he had been speaking to Mr Jenrick, the Reform leader said that while he never reveals his private conservations, he has held talks with senior Conservatives over the course of the last week and month.

Pressed again about whether he had spoken to the now ex-shadow justice secretary, Mr Farage said:

Of course I’ve talked to Robert Jenrick. Was I on the verge of signing a document with him? No. But have we had conversations? Yes.

Mr Farage was asked again if Mr Jenrick had been considering leaving the Tories for Reform, and said he thinks ‘virtually every Conservative’ is considering leaving the party.

POLL OF THE DAY: Are Brits ‘tired of political psychodrama’?

Tory leader Kemi Badenoch says she has sacked Robert Jenrick as shadow justice secretary and kicked him out of the party due to ‘irrefutable evidence that he was plotting in secret to defect in a way designed to be as damaging as possible’ to his Conservative colleagues.

Ms Badenoch wrote on X: ‘I have sacked Robert Jenrick from the Shadow Cabinet, removed the whip and suspended his party membership with immediate effect.

‘I was presented with clear, irrefutable evidence that he was plotting in secret to defect in a way designed to be as damaging as possible to his shadow cabinet colleagues and the wider Conservative Party.

‘The British public are tired of political psychodrama and so am I. They saw too much of it in the last government, they’re seeing too much of it in THIS government. I will not repeat those mistakes.’

Now it’s time to have your say in the Daily Mail’s latest poll – do you agree with Ms Badenoch’s claim that Brits are ‘tired of political psychodrama’?

To take part in the poll click here:

‘Totally betrayed’: Robert Jenrick’s constituent reacts to his sacking

A Conservative councillor in Robert Jenrick’s Nottinghamshire constituency has said he feels ‘totally betrayed’ following his sacking.

Keith Girling, who represents the Newark West ward on Nottinghamshire County Council. said Mr Jenrick had shown a ‘complete lack of loyalty’.

He said:

I think Kemi has done absolutely the right thing when she finds evidence of what he’s plotting to do. She’s shown real leadership there to sack him, kick him out of the party, and we’ll deal with the aftermath.

Asked if he felt betrayed, Mr Girling said:

Totally betrayed. We’ve supported Robert with his political ambition, you know, he obviously wanted to be the leader (of the Conservative Party)

Clearly he was disappointed he didn’t get that. But that’s not down to the efforts of this association who’s always supported him, you know, and he’s really just sort of turned his back on all that, on that loyalty, and gone his own way. I think that’s quite shameful, really.

Listen: Robert Jenrick insisted he wouldn’t defect to Reform

Just last month Robert Jenrick insisted he was ‘not going anywhere’ as he addressed rumours of a potential move to Reform UK.

Speaking to Times Radio, the then shadow justice secretary said:

It wasn’t very long ago that I was running to be leader of the Conservative Party so I’m not going anywhere.

Listen to the interview here:

Robert Jenrick’s journey from Tory leadership hopeful to … Reform MP?

File photo dated 03/11/24 of Kemi Badenoch with Robert Jenrick before being announced as the new Conservative Party leader following the vote by party members at 8 Northumberland Avenue in central London. Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch has said she has sacked shadow justice secretary Robert Jenrick due to "irrefutable evidence that he was plotting in secret to defect" from the party. Issue date: Thursday January 15, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Stefan Rousseau/PA Wire

Robert Jenrick was pipped to the party leadership by Kemi Badenoch in late 2024, and has long been tipped to abandon the struggling Tories and line up alongside Nigel Farage.

He had raised eyebrows among commentators and his own colleagues as he appeared to regard every brief in the shadow cabinet as part of his responsibility.

As well as his mid-ranking justice brief, he would frequently dip into his former home affairs speciality, the shadow chancellor’s role opposing the Treasury, defence, communities and housing to name a few.

Last May he made headlines when he filmed himself approaching three men at Stratford station in East London in an attempt to show the extent of fare dodging in the capital.

He has also been the subject of comment over his noticeable weight loss, finally admitting he had used weight-loss drugs.

While denying he was planning to defect to Reform he made several warm overtures towards Mr Farage, even when it went against Mrs Badenoch’s party line.

In April he was recorded proposing a ‘coalition’ to unite Tory and Reform UK voters at the next election.

He told Conservative students that ‘one way or another’ centre-Right voters had to be united to ensure Keir Starmer does not ‘sail through the middle’ again.

Keir Starmer – Why did Jenrick dismissal take so long?

Sir Keir Starmer has questioned why it took Kemi Badenoch ‘so long’ to sack Robert Jenrick following accusations he was planning to defect to Reform UK.

The Prime Minister told broadcasters during a visit to Scotland:

My question is: why did it take so long? Jenrick has been making toxic comments to try and divide our country for months, and months, and months, but it’s only now, when he’s on the verge of defecting to Reform, that Badenoch gets around to sacking him. So, that’s weakness on her part.

There’s a bigger story here, because we’re seeing a flood of Tory politicians, ex-politicians, going across to Reform because they know that the Tory Party is a sinking ship.

Equally, from Reform’s point of view, you’ve got Nigel Farage who is welcoming these failed politicians into his ranks and building his party as a party of the Tory politicians who let the country down so badly.

Odds slashed on Jenrick becoming new leader of Reform

Bookmakers have slashed odds on Robert Jenrick becoming the next leader of the Reform party following his dramatic dismissal from the Conservatives.

According to Oddschecker, one bookies has dropped their price from 20/1 to 4/1 within half an hour of Ms Badenoch’s announcement, making him a frontrunner to succeed Nigel Farage.

Betfred has dropped the odds from 10/1 to odds-on 8/13 while Bet365 has enlisted him the new favourite at 11/8 from 8/1.

Mr Jenrick was defeated by Mrs Badenoch for the Tories’ top job in November 2024.

However, he has constantly fuelled speculation about his ambitions by roving well beyond his justice portfolio.

There have been persistent rumours linking him with a move to Reform, but he has previously played the idea down.

Starmer brands Badenoch ‘weak’ over timing of Jenrick sacking

Keir Starmer has branded Kemi Badenoch ‘weak’ over the timing of her decision to sack Robert Jenrick from her frontbench.

In remarks made by the Prime Minister’s press secretary, he said the Conservatives would be unable to ‘stop the flood’ of MPs ‘deserting her sinking ship’.

It shows how weak Kemi Badenoch is that she could only sack Robert Jenrick when he was on his way out.

But it doesn’t matter what colour rosette failed ex-Tory ministers such as Robert Jenrick put on. These are the same people that voters resoundingly rejected because they failed the country, crashed the economy, left our NHS on the floor.

The press secretary continued:

Robert Jenrick is just the latest in a long line of failed Tory retreads and has joined the disgraced former Tory politicians that Reform has welcomed into its party in recent weeks. Kemi Badenoch is unable to stop the flood of Tory MPs deserting her sinking ship.

‘Kemi is a badass’: Tory MPs welcome leader’s ‘decisive’ move

Conservative MPs have welcomed Kemi Badenoch’s decision to axe Robert Jenrick from her shadow cabinet.

Reacting on social media, MPs hailed her ‘decisive’ leadership, while one described her as a ‘badass’.

Mrs Badenoch’s allies told the Daily Mail they were hopeful the move would stem any further planned defections, voicing confidence that Mr Jenrick’s close allies would not follow him out of the door.

Let’s see how MPs have reacted:

Jenrick and Farage had dinner together in December, Tories claim

A Conservative Party source has claimed Robert Jenrick and Nigel Farage had dinner together last month following his sacking from the Conservative frontbench.

The source reiterated Ms Badenoch’s claim of ‘totally irrefutable’ evidence that Mr Jenrick was planning to defect from the party.

The Tory source said:

We have had lots of reports coming in that he was meeting with Reform. He went for dinner with Nigel Farage last month, he had been speaking to people within Westminster about the possibility of a defection. His team has spoken to various people, including journalists, about defection.

Kemi doesn’t take decisions lightly, she thinks about these things, she analyses things properly. But the evidence was just totally irrefutable that this was going to be done to inflict maximum pain on the party.

Farage to contact Jenrick this afternoon

Is this the moment Nigel Farage learned of Robert Jenrick’s sacking

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage checks his phone during a press conference announcing Malcom Offord as the Scottish leader of Reform UK, at Dean Park Hotel, Kirkcaldy. Picture date: Thursday January 15, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Andrew Milligan/PA Wire

Nigel Farage said he will call Robert Jenrick later this afternoon after Kemi Badenoch sacked him and suspended his Tory membership.

‘I’ll give him a ring this afternoon,’ the Reform UK leader told reporters at a press conference in Edinburgh, later adding, ‘I might even buy him a pint.’

Mr Farage also stressed he did not plan to unveil Mr Jenrick as the latest defection to Reform UK at a planned press conference in London today.

Asked whether he had planned to unveil the former Tory frontbencher as the latest member of his party, he said: ‘I suspect she’s added up two and two and made five.’

Watch: Kemi Badenoch explains Jenrick dismissal

Here’s the moment Kemi Badenoch stunned Westminster by announcing she had sacked Mr Jenrick from her frontbench.

Dropping the bombshell, Mrs Badenoch said:

I have sacked Robert Jenrick from the Shadow Cabinet, removed the whip and suspended his party membership with immediate effect.

I was presented with clear, irrefutable evidence that he was plotting in secret to defect in a way designed to be as damaging as possible to his Shadow Cabinet colleagues and the wider Conservative Party.

The British public are tired of political psychodrama and so am I. They saw too much of it in the last government, they’re seeing too much of it in THIS government. I will not repeat those mistakes.