‘Andy Burnham faces choice time on Westminster comeback – however there are hurdles’

Since last summer there has been feverish speculation the Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is seeking a Westminster comeback – he now faces a major decision

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Andy Burnham has made no secret of his ambitions to one day lead the Labour Party.

The so-called “King of the North” has previously thrown his hat into the ring during two leadership contests – in 2010 and 2015 – and at the end of last year tactfully said: “I don’t know what the future will hold.”

Since last summer there has been feverish speculation the Greater Manchester Mayor is seeking a Westminster comeback. Mr Burnham claimed on the eve of Labour’s conference some MPs were urging him to challenge the Prime Minister. It was a comment that overshadowed the annual gathering in Liverpool and enraged Downing Street.

But there has always been the stumbling block to Mr Burnham being a serious challenger – the fact he is not an MP. This led the suspended Labour MP Andrew Gwynne to express his annoyance last September at the “tedious” talk and reports of a secret pact to vacate his own seat of Gorton and Denton for the Greater Manchester Mayor.

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Given Mr Gwynne won with a comfortable 50.8% vote share at the 2024 election it would – theoretically – be a plum seat in a Labour heartland for anyone wishing to stand as a Labour MP.

But the MP appeared to kill off the idea of resigning in order to allow Mr Burnham to stand. “The route to No10 is not going to be through Gorton & Denton,” he declared at the time.

That changed today as the MP, who was suspended over offensive messages in a WhatsApp group, announced he would resign from the Commons, paving the way for a by-election. Mr Burnham now has a decision to make. But even if he decides to run as an MP – and in turn give up his mayoralty of Greater Manchester – there are many obstacles to a Westminster return.

Labour’s governing body – the National Executive Committee (NEC) – will be responsible for selecting a candidate to fight for the party in the Greater Manchester by-election. And the NEC has no shortage of Starmer loyalists who could block Mr Burnham from standing.

One Labour MP from the left of the party predicted such a move would provoke a “huge row” in the party while a union chief said it would be a “democratic outrage”. If Mr Burnham passes that hurdle there is then the small task of winning the by-election at a time when Labour’s popularity has slumped in the national polls.

Opposition parties will throw the kitchen sink at the seat in an attempt to deliver a major political upset. Reform UK said the party would “throw everything at” the Gorton and Denton by-election. A party spokesman said: “It’s a huge ask for anyone to beat Labour in Manchester but we will give it our all.”

The charismatic Green Party leader Zack Polanski, who is not an MP, may also throw his hat into the ring. A party source did not rule this out, saying: “Zack is continually focussed on building the Green Party, and increasing the number of Green MPs who will bring a politics of hope to the next Parliament.”

The Greater Manchester Mayor Mr Burnham may relish the challenge – but it’s decision time on whether to roll the dice.