‘Keir Starmer had solely unhealthy choices on Andy Burnham – however dangers calamitous fallout’
The decision by Labour’s ruling body to bar Andy Burnham from standing in an upcoming by-election triggered a furious backlash and may have long-term consequences
Keir Starmer acted to block Andy Burnham from quitting his post to return to Westminster(Image: PA)
Once Andy Burnham said he wanted to contest the Gorton and Denton by-election, Keir Starmer was left with only bad choices.
Letting Burnham run risked fuelling speculation he could mount a leadership challenge – and removed an obstacle to him doing so, as only MPs can stand to be leader.
Add to that the prospect of fighting an unexpected mayoral by-election in Greater Manchester when Labour already faces difficult elections in Scotland, Wales and English councils in May. Terrible results for Labour in these races could be a moment of real danger for Starmer – with Burnham and others with their eyes on the top job ready to pounce.
The other option – which the PM took – was to block him and cite the cost to the taxpayer of staging a mayoral race, and the diversion of party resources from the May elections. It wipes out the immediate threat but the long-term consequences could be calamitous.
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In the hours after the news broke, my phone glowed red hot with furious messages from MPs accusing Labour’s ruling body of a stitch up. Burnham risks becoming a martyr for fed-up backbenchers who see the decision as control freakery from Downing Street.
The Parliamentary party has already got a taste for rebellion after forcing the Government into several U-turns, and winding them up won’t make Starmer’s job any easier.
A minister I spoke to before the decision was made suggested privately that the stronger move would be to let Burnham run, and Starmer risks looking weaker by blocking him.
No10 has already briefed aggressively against Wes Streeting, who is seen as a potential leadership challenger, and now barred Burnham from returning to Westminster. Whether these moves come from a place of strength or weakness depends on who you talk to, but most favour the latter.
The PM’s supporters argue that the Burnham decision should put an end to the internal wrangling that the public are rightly fed up with. But in reality it doesn’t. Until Starmer can revive Labour’s flagging poll ratings, there will be whispers about his future.
Burnham has his detractors, and some argue that he is putting his own ambitions before the people of Greater Manchester who elected him less than two years ago. Also don’t forget he has run to be Labour leader twice and was beaten by Ed Miliband and then Jeremy Corbyn.
But he is a popular politician, and has burnished his reputation outside of Westminster, even being dubbed the “King of the North” during the pandemic.
Labour won Gorton comfortably in 2024 but the party will face a test to hold it as Reform throws everything at trying to pull off an upset, and the Greens squeeze their vote from the left. Burnham tonight warned of the impact of blocking him on the result.
If Labour loses that by-election now, there will be hell to pay.
