Virginia Could Decide The Redistricting War. Democrats Aren’t Taking It For Granted.

Top Democratic operatives are warning donors and elected officials the path to pass a voter referendum giving the party a likely 10-1 advantage in congressional seats in Virginia is narrower than many think, arguing the party does not have the same advantages it did when a similar referendum romped to victory in California last November.

The Old Dominion is simply less Democratic than California. The election is also at an odder time: April 21 instead of Election Day. While California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) was desperate to pass Proposition 50 to prove his bona fides to 2028 primary voters, Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger (D) has been only passively supportive of the efforts there.

And Democrats feel the Republican forces lining up against the referendum are more organized — and more closely tied to President Donald Trump’s political operation — than a California campaign that ran out of cash months early and led to bitter infighting.

While Democrats still think voters are more likely than not to approve the 10-1 maps in the April 21 referendum, the chances of repeating the 64% margin that “yes” forces reached in California are slim, and ensuring victory could be costly.

“This is going to be a messaging battle. People are looking for a way to push back on Trump, and this gives them a chance to do so,” said Jared Leopold, a former Democratic Governors’ Association official with extensive experience in the state. “But this isn’t California. Virginia is a blue-tinted swing state, not a true blue state. And Republicans have a more recent record of success here.”

The 10-1 maps, which the Virginia General Assembly passed earlier this week, were crafted in response to Trump’s push to redraw lines in Republican-controlled states to eliminate Democratic seats. It started with the GOP eliminating five seats favoring Democrats in Texas, and has continued in North Carolina, Missouri and Ohio. While the Republican push hit notable roadblocks in Indiana and Kansas, it’s expected to continue with Florida Republicans looking to gut Democratic districts later this year.

Democrats have responded with a referendum in California, which is likely to help the party pick up five seats in the bright blue state. The party could also act in Maryland in the coming months, and in New York, Colorado and other states after the 2026 midterm elections.

That makes Virginia potentially decisive in the Trump-launched mid-decade redistricting wars. If the referendum passes, Democrats could essentially draw even or even potentially come out ahead. If it fails, Republicans will likely have a small advantage.

The importance is underscored by who’s running the campaign on both sides. Officials closely aligned with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) are working for the Democratic campaign, known as Virginians for Fair Elections, and a nonprofit controlled by allies of Jeffries donated $5 million to the effort earlier this week as the party leader promises to spend tens of millions on it.

The GOP group pushing a no vote on the referendum, dubbed Virginians for Fair Maps, has extensive ties to Trump and FP1, the GOP consulting firm previously led by top Trump political aide Chris LaCivita. The endeavor is led by Michael Young, who was Trump’s state director for Virginia and North Carolina during the 2024 election and is a partner at FP1. The campaign manager, Finn Lee, was previously a director of “election integrity” at the Republican National Committee. The group’s state-registered lobbyist, Richard Cullen, is a partner at FP1’s public affairs arm.

And both former Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares — who raised significant sums in a losing effort in the state’s 2025 general election — and former House Majority Leader Eric Cantor are helping to raise money for the Republican group.

“All across Virginia, voters are speaking out against this brazen political power grab that allows politicians in Richmond to choose their own voters,” Miyares and Cantor said in a statement this week.” “It’s wrong, it’s illegal, and it will fail.”

Virginians for Fair Maps did not return a request for comment, but House Republican operatives were confident their attempt would be stronger than the “no” side in California, which was run by allies of former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and burned through $33 million donated by billionaire Charles Munger to little effect. The group was effectively broke before Election Day, allowing Newsom to stop fundraising for Democratic efforts.

Republicans were optimistic their efforts would be more organized, but privately said victory was unlikely ― an unusual election in a state where Trump is deeply unpopular is likely to attract fired-up Democrats. But they saw some hope in convincing voters were no longer simply countering Trump, but engaged in their own power grabs.

“We have to convince voters Democrats are the ones overreaching now,” said one GOP operative with extensive experience in Virginia who requested anonymity to speak frankly about party strategy.

Other Democrats noted the gap between Spanberger and Newsom’s relative enthusiasm for new maps. Newsom, considered one of the Democratic Party’s best fundraisers, essentially treated the Proposition 50 referendum as the beginning of his 2028 presidential campaign.

Spanberger, a moderate more eager to prove her bipartisanship than her progressive bona fides, was not involved in the General Assembly’s decision to redraw the congressional maps, and worried the party should draw a 9-2 map instead.

“When other states take extreme measures, I trust Virginia voters to respond,” Spanberger said in a statement after signing the bill creating the redistricting referendum.

Republicans are still holding out some hope that the Virginia Supreme Court could strike down the entire maneuver as unconstitutional, though a ruling Friday that the referendum can proceed for now indicates the chance of a legal rescue may be slim.

Public polling on the referendum has been limited: A Christopher Newport University survey released last month showed that 51% of registered voters in the state backed the referendum, with 43% opposed.