The Last Dance: Why the penny has FINALLY dropped for Andy Farrell, how he can now BREAK Ireland’s 40-year World Cup hoodoo and what the long run holds for our GREATEST EVER coach post-Australia 2027…

IRELAND head coach Andy Farrell is entitled to feel a degree of bemusement around the punditry and coverage of this Six Nations campaign.

Despite the considerable credit he had built up over the years, there was a fair whack of criticism flung his way following the opening night hammering in France, including justifiable question marks over his long-term planning and loyalty to the old guard.

But Farrell got little credit when he then ripped up the script with his team selection to face Italy, leaving out established frontliners and rolling the dice on promising newcomers. The result was a surge of energy through the Ireland squad.

A SENSE OF JEOPARDY

All of a sudden, there was a genuine sense of jeopardy, a brutal realisation that, no matter how big your reputation or how storied your career, if you do not perform to the standards expected, you are out.

This had not been the case previously on Farrell’s watch, with the general policy revolving around running the same established names almost regardless of form, an approach that persevered even after the 2023 World Cup failure.

It was a defiant change of direction, an era-altering policy shift, yet it was largely dismissed as ‘rotation’ for the perceived lesser challenge of facing the Italians at home.

For some, this correspondent included, the subsequent victory over Italy was hugely positive.

Yes, there were lots of errors and areas to improve in a win that could be more readily described as ‘nervy’ than ‘convincing’, but Italy are a decent side now and Ireland digging themselves out of a hole with a bunch of new faces catching the eye was a major plus.

Or so we thought…

It quickly became apparent that this was a minority opinion as the widespread reaction across was doom and gloom – with little recognition of what Farrell was, belatedly, trying to do in terms of widening options.

‘TERMINAL DECLINE’

Phrases like ‘terminal decline’ and ‘irreversible recession’ abounded after the Italy game and the general consensus was that Ireland’s efforts to extricate themselves from the deep trough they now found themselves in ‘could take years’.

It took Farrell a week.

When he reinstated a clutch of his tried-and-trusted for the (on paper) daunting trip to Twickenham, they returned to a side re-energised by the Italy reshuffle and ruthlessly determined to prove their worth, driven by the unsettling knowledge that their places were no longer guaranteed.

The result was a performance of ferocious intensity that proved far too much for a brittle England side, still assailed with doubt after their shock Murrayfield humiliation.

It was a euphoric occasion for Irish rugby and, suddenly, the same heads who had been talking about the dark days being here to stay, did a 180 with frothy talk of ‘rebirth’ and ‘rejuvenation’.

There is a tendency in modern media – driven by the internet’s insatiable demand for clip-worthy reaction, and over-reaction – to get mired in the immediate.

There is also a lemming-like, ‘we are all individuals’ aspect to rugby analysis where nearly everyone dives frantically for the consensus and starts parrotting the same phrase du jour along the way.

This month it was ‘intent’ after Farrell questioned the lack of it from his players following their Paris pummelling. 

As soon as he said it, the word ‘intent’ was being sprinkled excitedly across Irish rugby analysis, as though pundits had been gifted a secret sauce to use at will.

Farrell must be shaking his head at it all.

Now, post Twickenham, the analysis has shifted to the head coach’s next career move, with stories linking Farrell to a return to his old haunt of Saracens in English rugby on a whopping €1.2million contract.

This has led to a cacophony of calls for Farrell to be handed an extended Ireland contract to keep at the helm for the foreseeable future.

Another knee-jerk, instant reaction to breaking events when it would be better to step back and assess the overall picture.

THE PENNY FINALLY DROPS

Farrell’s time with Ireland has been a remarkable story of progression and success – with the obvious exception of the World Cup.

And now, finally, it appears as though the penny has dropped and he is viewing everything through the prism of next year’s World Cup – because the rhetoric from Farrell, and his assistants, is radically different to what we have heard before.

After the 2023 disappointment, it was ‘as we were’ with the message that the ‘journey continues’ and, while Farrell oversaw a thumping win over France in Marseille and landed a Six Nations, it all seemed a little ‘after the Lord Mayor’s show’.

This Six Nations feels a whole lot different, the right attitude seems to have been adopted (namely that this tournament is a means to a World Cup end) as Ireland continue to assess options for down the road.

Even in the euphoria of the win over England last weekend, Farrell impressed hugely with his calm, bigger picture observations.

‘I didn’t care whether we won or lost today, just whether we grew as a group because we know where we want to go,’ he said afterwards.

Irish rugby has been waiting to hear those words from a head coach for 15 years.

The message, and mind shift, appears to have been embraced by everyone in camp, based on Johnny Sexton’s observations when asked about the contest for his old No 10 jersey between Jack Crowley, Sam Prendergast, Harry Byrne and Ciaran Frawley.

‘All the criticism from previous World Cup cycles is that we did not develop guys and we have relied too heavily on one player in some positions,’ said Sexton, referencing the over-dependence on his own role at the 2015, 2019 and 2023 World Cups.

‘So, we are doing it a different way now.’

Amen to that.

THE LAST DANCE

Whatever way you look at it, Farrell has been a phenomenally good coach for Ireland since coming on board as Joe Schmidt’s defensive coordinator in 2016. 

By the time of the World Cup in Australia next year, the Englishman will have been 11 years working for the IRFU and living in this country, where he and his family are known to be very happily settled.

However, every coach, no matter how talented, popular or successful they are, has a shelf life, and when his contract expires next year, it feels like a natural conclusion to this Irish rugby chapter.

The concern is that, if the IRFU were to make that decision and announce it later this year, there is the danger of Farrell becoming a ‘lame duck’ coach.

There is evidence to suggest that this is what happened to Joe Schmidt in 2019 after Farrell was announced as the Kiwi’s successor a year out.

The New Zealander, who had been the most influential and transformative head coach in Irish rugby history up to that point, had difficulties selling his message in his final year as players began to gravitate towards his successor.

However, there is less chance of that happening this time around.

For Farrell and the core of the squad he has been loyal to over the past five years, it’s ‘Last Dance’ time – the final chance to crack the World Cup code.

That incentive would be hugely motivating and more than enough to keep Farrell and the likes of Tadhg Furlong, Andrew Porter, Tadhg Beirne, Josh van der Flier, Jamison Gibson-Park and Garry Ringrose right on message through to the conclusion of Australia 2027.

The alternative approach, and one that has widespread support, is to hand Farrell another deal to keep him on board for yet another World Cup cycle – but Ireland have been burned this way before, most famously in 2007.

That summer, prior to the World Cup in France, the IRFU extended Eddie O’Sullivan’s contract and when the announcement was made to the squad, the story goes that, rather than the standing ovation which had been possibly expected, there was an awkward shuffling of feet and half-hearted murmurings of congratulations.

It was reflective of a bubbling desire for change, amid fringe frustration at O’Sullivan’s loyalty-driven selection policy, and when Ireland crashed horribly at that tournament, there was an enormous backlash against the contract extension and the head coach was gone within a matter of months.

There are obvious differences between the O’Sullivan landscape then and Farrell’s now – not least the English man’s focus on keeping a happy camp.

But, when you look at how a Farrell contract extension plays out, it does not make much sense.

If Ireland did manage to finally have a successful World Cup and reach a first semi-final or go further, it would be a tough mental challenge to start from scratch again on yet another four-year cycle, especially with the complication of the Lions tour to New Zealand in 2029 which Farrell is known to be keen to lead.

Alternatively, if Ireland bombed out yet again at the quarter-final stage, or earlier, there would be a massive outcry for change and Farrell’s position would surely be untenable, regardless of past achievements.

Far better to take the ‘Last Dance’ approach, confirm Farrell’s departure after the World Cup, announce his replacement – ideally Ronan O’Gara – and pour everything into going out on a high.

PERFECT ENDING

As for Farrell’s next move, he is not short of options. Saracens have hotly denied any approach or €1.2m contract offer but those words can be taken with a large dollop of salt – this is Sarries we are talking about, after all.

England would also appear a highly plausible option; the RFU blazers watching Farrell’s team dismantle Steve Borthwick’s side in Twickenham last weekend would surely have been thinking how to break the bank to get the proud Englishman back on board – and few here could quibble if they did.

Whatever happens, the good news for Ireland is that Farrell appears to have got his focus back in a big way following the drift post-2023. 

That bodes extremely well for next year and what better way for Ireland’s greatest coach to step off the stage than by ending this 40-year World Cup hoodoo?

The perfect ending.