Iran strikes leaves 25% of world’s oil and gasoline in danger – how may it influence you?
A new war in the Middle East, sparked by US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran and threats to block the vital Strait of Hormuz, could send UK petrol, energy, and everyday costs soaring
The Palau-flagged oil tanker Skylight, under US sanctions(Image: UGC/AFP via Getty Images)
A new war in the Middle East could hit your wallet hard, with experts warning that a significant portion of the world’s oil and gas is now at risk. This warning comes after Iran was attacked by the US and Israel.
Iran has already fired back and is threatening to block the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global energy supplies. If that happens, petrol and energy prices in the UK could skyrocket, making everything from filling up your car to heating your home much more expensive.
With the fighting still raging and world leaders on edge, Brits are being told to brace for higher bills and more global chaos in the weeks ahead.
The US and Israel have launched a massive wave of airstrikes on targets across Iran, setting off a dangerous new conflict in the Middle East. In response, Iran has fired back with its own attacks on US bases in places like Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain, and reports of casualties are already coming in.
Controversially, US President Donald Trump didn’t bother to get approval from Congress or the United Nations before launching the attacks. The strikes also happened right in the middle of important talks between Iran and the US. Experts are calling this an “illegal war, both in terms of US law and international statutes.”
It looks like the US is less interested in a nuclear deal and more focused on trying to force regime change in Iran, The Conversation suggested. Bombs are falling on Iranian cities, families are hiding, and it’s clear that “tragedies will inevitably happen and the innocent will suffer”.
According to The Conversation, the fallout from these new attacks could be disastrous for the whole world. Iran has powerful allies in the Middle East, including the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and militias in Iraq.
If they all get involved, the fighting could spread fast. Iran has also warned it might close the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway for global oil and gas.
If that happens, “oil prices will explode and the world economy will suffer”. Analysts at ING warned that a prolonged closure of the Strait could push Brent crude prices as high as $140 (£110) per barrel.
Most experts expect an immediate surge toward $100 (£79) per barrel as markets reopen. “As oil markets reopen Sunday evening… crude will almost certainly jump… the exact move will depend heavily on how deep and prolonged the attacks are,” Petroleum Analyst Patrick De Haan said.
Although Ofgem recently announced a 7% reduction in the energy price cap starting April 1,2026, analysts at Sky News and Smart Energy warned that geopolitical tensions are “eating into those discounts fast”, potentially causing prices to bounce back. Moreover, Petroleum analysts reportedly expect an immediate spike at UK pumps as wholesale costs react to the risk of supply disruption.
“Iran is a larger oil producer than Venezuela… the consequences of a disruption could be larger… significant market impacts, not just in the US,” Samantha Gross from the Brookings Institute said. Additionally, European gas benchmarks (like the Dutch TTF) could surge to €80-100 (£68-85)/MWh, directly impacting UK wholesale electricity and gas costs.
Beyond fuel, experts at WIRED noted this could trigger a global “inflation shock”, raising costs for airline tickets, food, and general goods due to increased transport and logistics expenses.
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