Iran warfare might value 100k Brits their jobs as UK braces for unemployment surge
Experts have warned the US and Israeli war with Iran could hit the UK job market as rising energy costs force some business owners to slash their workforce
Thousands of Brits could be made jobless due to the ongoing war in the Middle East(Image: AFP via Getty Images)
Thousands of Brits risk being pushed out of work as the US and Israeli war with Iran threatens to wreak havoc on the UK job market. Economists have sounded the alarm that the UK’s unemployment rate could peak at higher levels in the coming month as a consequence of the war.
Experts have also warned the Bank of England will delay interest rate cuts due to the ongoing conflict. James Smith at ING, an investment bank, has revealed if the war in the Middle East continues, employers may seek to offset growing energy costs by reducing their workforce or pausing hiring.
Mr Smith said: “It depends how long energy prices stay high. If we’re in a scenario where the disruption lasts three months or so, then I would imagine [unemployment would be] be pushing above 5.5pc.” Jordan Rochester, at Japanese bank Mizuho, has also revealed the ongoing regional conflict will effect the UK job market.
After being asked if the war would increase the unemployment rate, he said: “Unfortunately, yes, it will. It’s already on a path higher. If the rate of unemployment’s ascent matches that of the past year, it would defy forecasts again and put us closer to 6pc rather than 5pc.”
Industry organisation Make UK warned that while manufacturing activity had risen at the start of 2026, domestic demand had collapsed.
The body cautioned high energy prices, exacerbated further due to the conflict in the Middle East, and employment costs are holding back growth.
Make UK’s senior economist Fhaheen Khan said: “While output and investment show some improvement after a challenging end to last year, rising costs and weakening domestic demand are creating real pressures for businesses.
“With UK industrial energy costs among the highest in the developed world, any sustained increase in oil and gas prices could quickly push up input costs, squeezing margins and limiting investment.”
Amin Nasser, CEO of Saudi Arabia’s Aramco, called the war the “biggest crisis the region’s oil and gas industry has faced.” The CEO also revealed in only 10 days of war nearly 180 million barrels have been affected by disruptions.
Speaking at the company’s third-quarter earnings call, he said: “There will be catastrophic consequences for the world’s oil market the longer the disruption goes on.”
