Keir Starmer’s possibilities of survival revealed forward of ‘anticipated Labour massacre’
Sir Keir Starmer has been backed to narrowly survive a brutal local election bloodbath next month, even if his party is left humiliated by Reform and the Greens. Despite Labour’s polling numbers tanking to a dismal fourth place, a top political expert believes the PM has found a secret weapon in his war of words with Orange Manbaby Donald Trump.
While Sir Keir’s popularity previously slumped below even the levels of Boris Johnson, his decision to go toe-to-toe with the US President over the Iran war has given him a surprise bounce.
Professor Tony Travers from the London School of Economics and Political Science believes this friction is exactly what the doctor ordered for a Prime Minister under fire.
He said: “The heat is probably less on Keir Starmer now than it was a month or six weeks ago. It’s partly because everybody’s got used to the idea that Labour is going to do badly. The only question is, how badly?
“He’s probably been helped by the struggle with Donald Trump. Trump has helped Canadian and Australian politicians in the past after they stood up to him.”
The numbers make for grim reading at Number 10. A recent YouGov survey of 2,367 people put Labour on a measly 17 per cent, trailing behind Reform UK (24%), the Tories (19%) and the Greens (18%).
With some projections suggesting a loss of up to 1,700 council seats on May 7, Professor Travers warns that the sheer volume of Labour seats at risk makes the target on Starmer’s back even bigger.
He said: “Clearly, both he and Kenny Badenoch risk finding themselves or their parties losing seats. The scale of that defeat is very important. The scale of the loss will probably be worse for Labour than the Conservatives as Labour have got far more seats up.”
Labour insiders have long complained about the state of the economy they inherited in 2024 and Professor Travers agrees that a lack of money is Starmer’s biggest headache.
He said: “Labour took office in 2024, when many public services were not in great condition. The cupboard was bare financially so Labour had very little money to play with compared with the Blair government taking office in 1997 or even Cameron taking office in 2010. I think that’s the main problem that Labour has.”
He added: “If there were a different Prime Minister, they might be able to present things better. But I do think the key fact is that there’s no money for anything.”
While the PM’s rivals are sharpening their knives, the Professor notes that the most obvious replacements are currently at a disadvantage.
Former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner is still tainted by the controversy surrounding her tax affairs, while Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is stuck in the North with no easy route back to Westminster.
Travers said: “I think until Burnham gets back to Parliament, he just can’t do anything. The difficulty with that is there aren’t any absolutely certain rock solid safe seats anymore. That’s quite a big risk, because there’s a risk that you’d lose and he wouldn’t get into parliament.”
The Professor’s verdict is that Starmer will likely scrape through the May massacre, provided it isn’t a total wipeout.
He said: “I think he’s more likely than not to survive. The results will be judged against an expectation. But if they were very, very bad…if it gets to that degree of losing two thirds of their seats, then I think some of his opponents would think now is the moment to bounce.”
Even if he survives, Travers warns that the days of thumping majorities are over. He added: “I think it’s unlikely Labour are going to win all the way to being a majority party in the way they were in 2024.”
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