Holidaymakers ought to brace for ‘very, very costly’ airline tickets this summer season in a flight ‘worth disaster’ brought on by jet gasoline shortages, EU vitality officers warn

Britons heading abroad for holidays over the coming months are ‘very likely’ to face flight cancellations or ‘very, very expensive tickets’, energy officials warned today.

EU energy commissioner Dan Jorgensen warned tourists to brace for disruption and higher prices as airlines adjust schedules and costs to cover the higher fuel costs. 

The International Energy Agency (IEA) believes physical jet fuel shortages could start in June because of the prolonged blockage of the Strait of Hormuz amid the Iran war.

Carriers have been announcing increased ticket prices, with United Airlines saying this week they may need to rise by up to 20 per cent to offset the fuel cost surge.

Air France-KLM is planning to raise long-haul cabin fees by €50 (£43) per round trip, while Delta and Southwest are both hiking baggage fees to cover the higher costs.

Mr Jorgensen told Sky News: ‘Unfortunately, it’s very likely that many people’s holidays will be affected, either by flight cancellations or very, very expensive tickets. Even if we do everything we can do, if the jet fuel is not there, then it’s not there.’

‘It is primarily a crisis of prices and not yet a crisis of supply, but unfortunately we cannot be sure to prevent a crisis of supply, especially on jet fuel in the future, if the crisis continues.

‘If we had peace tomorrow and the Strait of Hormuz opens, I think we will manage without that happening, but I have to say that even in the best-case scenario the price crisis will still last for quite some time.’

IEA boss Fatih Birol told how Europe gets about 75 per cent of its jet fuel from the Middle East but this is now ‘zero’ as it tries to raise imports from the US and Nigeria.

He also said cancellations made by some airlines including Lufthansa, KLM and SAS could be ‘only the start’ as demand soars by 40 per cent in the peak summer season. 

Mr Birol told CNBC: ‘Europe gets about 75 per cent of its jet fuel from Middle East refineries and this is basically now almost zero and the rest coming from some big Asian countries who have no export restrictions.

‘Europe is now trying to get it from the US and Nigeria. If we are not able to get in Europe additional imports from the countries now, we will be in difficulties in Europe.

‘You might have seen that only in the last few days, Lufthansa, a German carrier; KLM; and Scandinavian Airlines, they have reduced their number of flights around the continent and beyond.

‘So I really hope, that first of all, the strait is opened and refinery exports start from there, but we may well need to take some measures in Europe to reduce air travel as well.’

‘It is only the start. The airlines I’m saying… at least the three big ones, Lufthansa, KLM and SAS, Scandinavian Airlines, they have reduced them.

‘The problem is when we move to summer, in August, jet fuel demand is about 40 per cent higher than in March. So demand will increase and if the supply stays where it is now, the challenge can be even bigger. But I very much hope that Europe will be importing energy.

‘I talked last week, in fact the day before yesterday, with the Nigerian petroleum minister to get some Nigerian jet fuel imports and from the US and elsewhere. But difficult days in Europe in terms of jet fuel and beyond, of course.’

Mr Birol previously estimated on April 16 that Europe had about six weeks’ worth of jet fuel remaining and said airlines would start to cut routes from their schedules without more.

Lufthansa said yesterday that 20,000 short-haul flights would be removed from its schedule through to October, equivalent to about 40,000 metric tons of jet fuel.

The German company previously said it would ground 27 planes servicing its short-haul CityLine subsidiary earlier than planned.

Scandinavian airline SAS said it would cancel 1,000 flights in April because of high oil and jet fuel prices, after cancelling a ‘couple hundred’ flights in March.

KLM said on April 16 it would cancel 160 flights in Europe in the coming month due to rising fuel costs.

All but one of the world’s 20 largest airlines have cancelled flights scheduled for next month spanning every major region, according to aviation analytics firm Cirium.

Senior consultant Richard Evans said this was a ‘direct result of airspace and airport disruption in the Middle East, as well as due to the cost impact of a doubling in jet fuel prices’.

Analysing the 20 largest airlines, Mr Evans said: ‘With one exception, Turkish Airlines, all the airlines have cut their May schedule. Most have made reductions of 0 to 5 percentage points, consistent with the global change of 3 per cent.

‘There is a noticeable contrast between Qatar, with schedule now down 33 per cent versus May 2025, and Emirates, who still plan a 2.4 per cent year-on-year growth.’

‘All regions have seen schedule cuts, with major airlines in North America, Europe and Asia Pacific reacting to a similar degree. The two purely short-haul carriers in this sample, Southwest and Ryanair appear to have been impacted less, making cuts of less than 1 per cent at present.

‘It appears extremely likely that more reductions are ahead. Delta guided to flat year-on-year capacity in Q2 2026, against its current plan of 2.7 per cent growth and Ryanair hinted it might trim schedules by 5 to 10 per cent if jet fuel prices remain at their current levels.’

Meanwhile the head of Italy’s Civil Aviation Authority, Pierluigi di Palma, has claimed people should consider staying in their home countries for their summer holidays.

He told Sky News: ‘In the past petrol prices have reached and exceeded more than $100 without any significant side effects on air travel but this time, the psychological effect is having a destructive effect on passengers.

‘It is best to recommend holidays nearby, rediscovering beautiful places in our country. For those who still want to risk taking a long trip, it’s a good idea to consider special insurance that can provide reassurance regarding a guaranteed refund in the event of a delayed or cancelled flight.’

The price of jet fuel has more than doubled in some markets since the war began with US and Israeli strikes on Iran.

The price increased from about $99 (£73) per barrel at the end of February to as high as $209 (£155) a barrel at the start of April. The latest figure from last week is $185 (£137).

Airlines are particularly vulnerable to fuel price shocks because jet fuel typically accounts for one of their largest operating expenses.

Tim Jeans, a former commercial director at Ryanair who was later managing director of Monarch Air, said today that there was a ‘triple whammy for airlines at the moment’, including ‘the issues in the Middle East which has caused a massive spike in the cost of fuel’.

Speaking on BBC Radio Scotland’s Breakfast programme, Mr Jeans added: ‘That in turn is pushing up ticket prices, and the uncertainty around whether it is going to be possible to travel, plus the increase in prices is reducing demand.

‘And so you have a situation where airlines are looking at their bookings for the next three months ahead and saying ‘should we fly that flight, is it going to be profitable?’

But he added that the so-called holiday airlines have ‘got very robust bookings for May, June and July’, saying that while there ‘may be some trimming of schedules’ by airlines, he did not expect firms to cancel routes altogether.

Fighting around the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway off Iran’s coast where a fifth of the world’s oil typically passes, has disrupted fuel prices and supplies around the world.

Airports Council International, which represents more than 600 airports, has written to European commissioners for energy and transport and tourism, claiming that if the strait does not reopen in a ‘significant and stable way within the next three weeks’ then ‘systemic jet fuel shortage is set to become a reality for the EU’.

Fellow trade body Airlines UK said ministers have to make preparations now if they want to avoid disruption later, warning of the ‘immediate impact on the UK aviation sector and UK consumers in the event disruption to jet fuel supply continues or worsens’.

The EU believes the war is costing Europe around €500million (£433million) each day.