‘Some say Dan Jarvis’ £15billion defence spend continues to be not sufficient amid Russia’s warnings’
In just a few weeks since John Healey quit as Defence Secretary in a row over military funding the government’s increased spending commitment has soared by £1.5billion. Britain lost one of the hardest-working, dedicated and respected defence secretaries in decades over a shortfall in the government’s offer to our hollowed-out.armed forces.
Healey was torn because he knew how much money defence chiefs were telling him that they need to protect Britain from attack or at least deter aggression. It is possible, according to some sources that Healey may have stayed had the Defence Investment Plan stretched as far as an increase of £18bn. Now former Parachute Regiment officer Dan Jarvis, MP has taken over and announces a total increase of £15bn over the next few years – still short of what service chiefs demanded.
It has increased from £13.5bn, a figure so far from the £28bn they wanted that Healey walked out of the job that he had loved so much. So the good news is the increase which will hopefully mean that the UK is safer than it would have been had it not been agreed upon. The bad news seems to be that most observers believe it is still not enough. Against a backdrop of repeated warnings the Kremlin could be ready for war by 2030 service chiefs had insisted they needed as much as £28 billion by the end of 2029.
The increase was much – needed according to industry insiders, as the requirement to join the drone warfare arms race has become an urgency.Just look at what has happened in Ukraine, troops once trained by the UK just a few years ago are now passing on their drone wars expertise to western forces. Ukraine has become the world’s leading country in drone warfare after over four years of brutal fighting caused by Russia’s horrific full-scale invasion.
Against all expectations it has shocked the Kremlin by near-crippling its ability to pay for its war by hitting it with drones continually oil and gas installations across Russia. That snapshot illustrates just how rapidly the nature of warfare is changing. And the need for that requirement to be met as speedily as possible is being stressed in briefings throughout the defence industry and the military.
There is a new £5bn increase on the UK’s drone wars, including air, land and sea, even undersea unmanned craft aimed at surveillance and attack use. This is an emphasis that has only emerged recently and in a sense the MoD is playing catch-up. When Healey quit his supporters were all calling for boosts to the UK’s drone capability and it now seems that some money has been found – but the MoD will pile through it.
The Defence Investment Plan clearly acknowledges that the number of Army soldiers has to be increased urgently but only acknowledges it must go up to 76,000. It actually says: “Major investments through 2030-35 include increasing the Army’s regular component to 76,000 personnel.”
Increasing or maintaining soldier levels has been difficult for over a decade since it was disastrously privatised so it remains to be seen if this will actually happen. There are so many nuggets that show how every piece of the military has been pored over to see if it is efficient to make savings to that the DIP will work. One example is that the Army’s Wildcat Helicopters are being slashed by roughly half, with 34 of these battlefield troop carriers retired from service.
One source said: “This is another lesson learned from Ukraine – it was not a useful, efficient method of carrying troops into battle so they are being retired.” So perhaps for the first time in many decades, defence spending, whilst going up, is being forensically examined to ensure only what is needed is funded.
There is an alarming but informed urgency in the air and the government has bent to that pressure whilst maintaining control. Many, such as John Healey, feel they know it is probably not enough. We may well know the truth, whether the government has gambled with our security or not, in less than three years.
