Early jail launch scheme – the way it works and what has modified underneath Andy Burnham

In his six weeks as Prime Minister, Andy Burnham has made huge changes to the prisoner early release scheme he inherited – excluding killers and rapists, but major question remain about what happens next

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When he walked through the door of No10 six weeks ago, Andy Burnham was faced with a situation no Prime Minister would want to grapple with.

Thousands of prisoners – including rapists, killers and child sex offenders – were lined up for early release because of the dangerous capacity crisis facing the country. Keir Starmer had made the difficult decision to introduce a scheme that would see criminals serve just a third to a half of their sentences.

Victims were furious, and the public found it unpalatable that rapists and killers would be among those set free. The inclusion of Jessie Cole and Albert Bowers – both currently in prison for manslaughter over the death of PC Andrew Harper – sparked an enormous backlash.

Mr Burnham announced a series of carve-outs last month, and on Sunday went further. Here we look at the key points around the early release scheme.

Why was it needed?

Years of neglect under the Tories meant Labour came to power facing imminent catastrophe.

While violence tore through Britain’s streets following the Southport attack in July 2024, there were fewer than 100 prison spaces available in England and Wales. Mr Starmer said he faced the prospect of having nowhere to send violent criminals – putting the entire justice system at risk.

In their 14 years in power the Tories added just 482 places to the prison estate after shutting 7,500 cells and closing 23 jails.

Longer sentences, large numbers of prison recalls and a rising population have all added to the pressures. Without sentencing reform, the Ministry of Justice estimates the prison population could overtake capacity by November this year. Inaction was not an option.

So what did Starmer’s government do?

One early step was to announce a prison building programme, with an extra 14,000 spaces promised by 2031.

But while that would help in the long term, it could not be done fast enough to deal with the immediate crisis. For this reason, the government drew up plans for a prisoner release scheme.

This is not a new phenomenon – the Tory End of Custody Supervised Licence in October 2023 was one such example. But the latest scheme had to go further.

Legislation passed under Mr Starmer meant that from October 1, prisoners convicted of less serious offences – who currently spend 40% or 50% of their sentence behind bars – will be released after a third. And more serious offenders who would otherwise do two thirds of their sentence will leave after half.

There were some exemptions – murderers and terrorists were never in line to be freed early, for example. But Mr Burnham would come to power amid powerful calls for wider carve-outs.

What changed under Andy Burnham?

The prospect that rapists, killers and groomers would be among those released early fuelled public anger.

Days into his premiership, Mr Burnham ordered his new Justice Secretary, Alex Norris, to undertake a review. As a result the government confirmed at the start of August that those convicted of rape, serious child sexual offences and grooming would be excluded.

But those guilty of unlawful killing were not in the carve-out – meaning two of PC Harper’s killers remained set for release next year. More than a million people signed a petition calling for them to remain in prison, and over 50 police chiefs wrote to the PM voicing their outrage.

Despite saying at the time that he had pushed the limits of what could be done, weeks later Mr Burnham went further.

On Sunday the PM announced a breakthrough. He said that those serving sentences for unlawful killing would also be included. This included manslaugher, death by dangerous driving and causing or allowing the death of a child.

How many will be released, and how will space be found?

Victims Minister Alex Davies-Jones confirmed that the latest carve-outs meant around 4,500 prisoners would be in scope for early release. When the scheme was unveiled under Keir Starmer, that figure was around 6,000, so the impact is significant.

The government has said it will be looking at ways to free up more prison spaces. These include deporting foreign prisoners, with more than 10,000 currently in jails across England and Wales.

Mr Burnham also said prisoners serving indefinite sentences for public protection (IPP) would also be looked at. And moving male prisoners into female prisons after women are released is also an option.

Deporting foreign prisoners

One of the options the government is looking at is deporting foreign criminals when they are sentenced.

This could free up significant space. In September last year there were 10,737 foreign nationals behind bars – around 12% of the prison population.

But it poses some tricky questions. Ms Davies-Jones said on Monday that the target is to remove all of them. But this will depend on home countries wanting to take criminals back, which will take some serious diplomacy.

Where that hurdle is overcome, it is unclear whether criminals would be made to serve time in their homelands. This is significant – how satisfied would a victim be if they knew the person that wronged them was free, albeit somewhere else in the world?

Asked if prisoners will be sent to foreign jails, Ms Davies-Jones said: “That would be for the determination of their country of origin.”

Shake-up of indefinite sentences

Successive governments have long faced calls to deal with controversial indefinite sentences.

These were handed out to people considered dangerous but whose offence did not merit a life sentence. Those handed these sentences face a potentially unlimited time in prison until they can prove they are no longer a threat to the public.

IPP sentences were abolished in 2012 – but this was not applied to those serving them.

By the end of June there were 856 people in prison – with eight out of 10 of them having served at least 10 years above the minimum term they were originally jailed for. The United Nations has criticised the UK government, and human rights groups have voiced their outrage.

But any release scheme would have to be handled very carefully. Earlier this year justice minister Jake Richards said including IPP prisoners “would result in prisoners being released whom the independent Parole Board has determined are too dangerous”.

Releasing female prisoners

Another option being explored is releasing female prisoners and using womens’ jails for men.

This could see around 2,000 in jail for non-violent crimes released. There are currently 12 prisons that exclusively house women, so freeing one up could make it easier to find spaces for newly-imprisoned men.

One advocated for this was former prisons minister Lord Timpson. But critics of the idea warn that reducing the number of female jails would mean inmates would be held further from their families, and it could be harder to get them to court appearances.

Will prisoners be properly monitored?

The government has insisted that protections will be in place to prevent criminals being a danger to their victims.

There will be a presumption of GPS tracking for all those freed as part of the scheme. And victims will have an input into licensing conditions, with new restriction zones created – a world first.

Failure to comply will result in released prisoners returning to jail. They also face bans from places and events including pubs, football matches and concerts, the government said.

Ms Davies-Jones said: “We’re ensuring that victims have the opportunity to feed into licensing conditions. Because release does not mean freedom.”