‘Box workplace by-election in Keir Starmer’s previous seat has excessive stakes for Labour and the Greens’
Zack Polanski’s plans to enter the race puts rocket boosters under what’s shaping up to be a box office by-election in Keir Starmer’s old seat.
Holborn and St Pancras has been Labour since its creation in 1983, where the party has won at least 40% of the vote at every election. But the inner London constituency is a tempting prize for the Greens, and has long been in the sights of the party’s Hackney-based leader.
Polanski’s personal popularity has slumped since its peak in April, following a backlash to a tweet criticising the police response to the Golders Green attack. The Greens have also seen their poll ratings fall.
This contest offers an opportunity for the party to regain momentum and could give Polanski – if he’s selected by the local party – his Makerfield moment, an Andy Burnham-style gamble to prove he’s a winner. But if he loses, it would be a hammer blow to Green hopes.
For Labour, it presents a challenge – and an opportunity. The timing is a headache for the new Prime Minister, who is determined to keep the summer good vibes going into a packed autumn.
Losing a by-election so soon into his tenure would be a nightmare for Burnham. It will also inevitable divert attention from his agenda.
But there is a prize here too. This by-election gives Burnham the chance to show his Labour Party can win anywhere – not just in his North West heartland.
Grumblers who oppose his devolution plans accuse him of being too focused on the North of England, and communities outside of the Capital. Here’s a chance to see if Burnham’s blueprint for Britain can work in the heart of London.
It will also test Labour’s appeal to progressive voters under Burnham. In Makerfield, the now PM won convincingly in a seat that Reform had hoped to snatch, showing he could appeal to those who wanted to keep Nigel Farage’s party out, as well as Labour voters wavering toward Reform.
Holborn and St Pancras is a very different seat, and Labour’s main opponent here will be the Greens. There is also a sizeable Muslim vote in the constituency, and Labour has work to do to rebuild trust with the community over the war in Gaza.
If Labour holds this seat, it will offer hope that the party can beat Reform and unite the left as it sets its sights on the next general election.
