Pollsters say by-election in Keir Starmer’s outdated seat could possibly be ‘make or break’ for Zack Polanski
EXCLUSIVE: Pollsters explained Labour were still the favourites for the Holborn and St Pancras seat, and that the ‘shine’ had come off Zack Polanski with voters
The by-election could be make or break for Zack Polanski(Image: TOLGA AKMEN/EPA/Shutterstock)
The bombshell by-election in Keir Starmer’s old seat could be “make or break” for the Green leader Zack Polanski, polling experts have claimed.
The former PM announced he was standing down this week, just months after leaving Downing Street.
Speaking to this newspaper, pollsters explained Labour were still the favourites for the Holborn and St Pancras seat, and that the “shine” had come off Mr Polanski with voters.
Polling guru Sir John Curtice said: “Polanski obviously made quite a name for himself, but his personal popularity isn’t quite what it was, and hasn’t been since the Golders Green incident. This looks at least as tough a gig for Polanski, if he stands, as Makerfield looked for Burnham.
“The difference is that Burnham could always hope to and did succeed in persuading people who might otherwise vote Green, Lib Dem or even Tory to vote Labour to keep Reform out. Those kind of dynamics are not really available to Polanski as he’s the extremist in this instance, rather than the person in the centre.
“It will be a real test to use his personal popularity to defy the odds. Polanski’s chances are greater than zero, but he will be taking on a quite considerable challenge. It might be make or break for him in terms of his political future”.
The Green Party leader had been forced to apologise after sharing a post on social media questioning the actions of police in the Golders Green attack. The officers had kicked a man in the head after he’d stabbed two Jewish men in a horrifying terror attack.
Pollster Luke Tryl also labelled Labour favourites, and suggested Mr Polanski would have had a much greater chance if Mr Starmer was still in Downing Street.
He said: “If this election were in May I think I would say the Greens might have had a really good chance at taking the seat.
“Since then, Andy Burnham has re-engaged a group of disillusioned progressives, the Burnham bounce largely comes from voters on the left.
“Also Zack Polanski has had some personal missteps, including Golders Green, his response to that, but also council tax. He’s just taking a bit of a shine off, and you’ve seen a dip in the polling.
“Labour start off as favourites, but we have seen when party leaders stand themselves in by-election contests, the candidate really matters.
“Makerfield should have been an easy Reform win but it wasn’t because of Andy Burnham.”
Labour has won the inner London constituency since it was created in 1983, winning at least 40% of the vote at every election.
