UK’s ‘one in, one out’ migrant take care of France ‘might be springboard for EU settlement’

France has indicated it wants to walk away from the ‘one in, one out’ migrant deal with the UK when it expires on October 1 – saying Britain must reach a wider deal with the EU

View 3 Images

Labour’s ‘one-in-one-out’ migrant deal with France could pave the way for a wider deal with Europe despite the low number of returns, experts say.

The agreement, which comes to an end this week, has seen around 1,400 small boat arrivals sent back to France in a year – with a similar number coming the other way. Despite hopes it could be ramped up after a year-long trial, its future has been thrown into doubt after France’s interior minister said he wants to bring it to a close.

The UK has now been urged to seek a wider returns deal with the rest of the EU. Andy Burnham will hold a crunch summit with the 27-member bloc later this year, and faces calls to explore entering a new pact that would once again give Britain legal powers to return migrants to the first European country they pass through.

Migration experts told The Mirror the number of returns under the scheme with France was far too low to be a deterrent – but it did achieve its aim in showing legal hurdles could be overcome. This was something the Tories failed to do with their Rwanda scheme.

It came at a high cost, though, with Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood last week telling MPs it cost around £56,000 per person removed. Small boat arrivals have dropped by over 40% since last year, and reached a seven year low in June, July and August, but specialists agree the deal with France is unlikely to have been a major factor.

Dr Mihnea Cuibus, a senior researcher at the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, said: “In terms of proof of concept, we’ve definitely seen that this scheme can work. There were concerns at the time about the logistics of this deal. There were some legal challenges as well, particularly in those first few months.

“And I think what we’ve seen over the last year is that, in theory, the scheme can work.” But he said with a mere 4% of arrivals returned under the agreement, it was unlikely to have been much of a deterrent.

Between August 4 last year and the end of June, 1,087 people were removed. During the same period, 27,920 reached the UK by small boats, Home Office data shows. Ms Mahmood last week told MPs the figure was now around 1,400 – but the Home Office declined to give a precise figure.

Dr Cuibus said: “That risk of being sent back if you get on a boat that has stayed relatively low. And ramping up numbers under this scheme has proven a bit of a challenge.”

Marley Morris, associate director for migration, trade and communities at thinktank the IPPR, said the France deal had done what the Tory Rwanda plan failed to do – by getting people removed.

“Obviously, it hasn’t worked at scale,” he said. “I don’t know whether that was ever the intention of the pilot, but I think the hope was that following the pilot there would be this ramping up and you would be able to do it at scale.”

Earlier this month it emerged that France was seeking to walk away from the agreement – arguing the UK must do a deal with the rest of the EU.

French interior minister Laurent Nuñez said: “We consider that France should not have to carry it alone, and that it would be better to integrate it into an agreement between the EU and UK.

“So I have already clearly told my counterpart (Ms Mahmood) that this pilot agreement, which we signed in August 2025, was not intended to be renewed beyond October 1, 2026.”

In June the EU launched a new pact on immigration and asylum, which includes border screening measures and swift return procedures. Four non-members, Norway, Iceland, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein, have been permitted to join the pact.

But Ms Mahmood has voiced scepticism, saying the scheme has not yet been proven to work. She told MPs: “It is a real mistake to think that that pact is the future and if we were in that, this problem would go away – because I promise you it would not.”

It is unclear what the EU would demand in order for Britain to join – with the UK likely to have to accept a number of new arrivals and make a financial contribution to the project.

Mr Marley said: “I think it’s not an easy thing to negotiate, but I do think that it’s probably the best way forward, assuming that France isn’t willing to continue the pilot or to scale it up.

“You literally have a ready-made arrangement to manage asylum that the EU has just agreed, so in that respect, it would be a shame not to at least explore whether it’s possible to join that.”

The Home Office refused to be drawn on negotiations with France over extending the deal. A spokesman told The Mirror: “The government’s agreement with France has been extended until the end of September. This will ensure we will continue to remove those who arrive illegally on small boats over the summer.”

It comes as Angela Rayner insisted there is no split at the top of Andy Burnham’s Cabinet over controversial migration reforms she previously labelled ‘un-British’. She reiterated concerns about changes to settlement rules on the eve of Labour’s annual conference – but said she was not getting into a row with Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood.

The reforms, which were first proposed under Keir Starmer’s premiership, would increase the timeline for permanent residence from five years to 15 years for foreign social care workers. People who come by small boat would have to wait 30 years – although there will be shorter waits for NHS workers and high earners.

It has sparked an outcry among Labour MPs, with critics are furious changes will apply to people already in the country legally. Ms Mahmood is expected to announce her plans later this year following a consultation which attracted more than 200,000 responses. Asked about her opposition to the migration plans, Ms Rayner said: “Shabana had a consultation on the transitional arrangements, and she’s been really clear that we’ve got to have a fair system that is fair for people that contribute today, and those that come to this country to contribute.

“I have absolute support for Shabana in that, and I’m sure she’ll come to a good conclusion on that. I contributed to that consultation, and I’m on the record for that. We’re all united.

“We’ve seen on illegal migration, those figures coming down, so I think that she’s doing a fantastic job.” And she insisted: “So there’s no split story there, unfortunately.”