Donald Trump’s Iran warfare may price him his most loyal supporters – how we obtained right here and why he gambled
Why now? Didn’t Iran promise not to make nuclear weapons ever again as recently as last night, and wasn’t that the sticking point? Also, this doesn’t sound particularly America First – isn’t MAGA going to be very upset about it? Here’s how we got here
Trump is taking a big risk(Image: Getty Images)
Donald Trump this morning announced the US had joined Israel in launching military strikes on Iran.
And while Trump has been building up to this for weeks, it’s still a confusing move for many reasons.
Why now? Didn’t Iran promise not to make nuclear weapons ever again as recently as last night, and wasn’t that the sticking point? Also, this doesn’t sound particularly America First – isn’t MAGA going to be very upset about it?
Here’s where we are and how we got here.
1. Trump announced bombing of Iran on Truth Social, because of course he did
In a move that should surprise nobody, because he’s been doing the Hokey Cokey with it for weeks, Trump this morning announced that US forces had launched strikes against Iran. In a video posted, of course, on Truth Social, and wearing a white ‘USA’ golf hat, Trump announced the US had begun “major combat operations in Iran,” saying the objective of the strikes was to “defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime.” He vowed to “destroy their missiles and raze their missile industry to the ground.” Israel, who announced it about half an hour earlier, described it as a “pre-emptive strike”.
2. Hang on, didn’t he say he’d already ‘obliterated’ Iran’s nuclear capabilities?
He did. After the ‘Operation Midnight Hammer’ strikes on Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities last summer, Trump said they had been “obliterated”.
Not only that, but he became enraged by anyone who even questioned whether that was the case – branding them “fake news” and “sleazebags”.
And yet here we are. Trump argues the strikes were necessary because Iran hasn’t super-duper promised, no takesy backsies, no fingers crossed behind their backs, never to make a nuclear weapon.
Except they have, most recently about eight hours before the strike was launched. During indirect talks with the US facilitated by Oman, Iran promised never to stockpile enriched uranium.
Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi also said he believed a deal could be reached “amicably and comprehensively” within a few months.
It’s also worth remembering that before Trump took office the first time, the US had a nuclear deal in place with Iran, signed by Barack Obama in 2015 after years of negotiations. He pulled out of it in 2018.
3. So why now?
A combination of factors. First off, the Trump administration doesn’t buy the “breakthrough” with negotiators in Oman. Trump thinks they’re stalling so they can have more time to seal off their remaining nuclear facilities in Isfahan and Natanz, making them more difficult to take out with bunker buster bombs.
Second, Iran is pretty fragile at this moment. After the brutal protest crackdown last month, there remains the biggest gap between the regime and its people than has been seen in decades.
But that still leaves the question…
4. This doesn’t seem particularly ‘America First’…
It doesn’t.
Boiled down, Trump’s surprise victory in 2024 was based on three promises: ‘I will make your groceries cheaper’ (failed), ‘I will deport millions of people’ (work in progress, but it turns out American voters really hate having masked paramilitaries invading their cities) and ‘I will stop America involving itself in costly foreign wars’.
That last one is perhaps the clearest lie of the three. From his illegal invasion of Venezuela to the strike on Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities last summer, the Trump administration has regularly started or involved itself in conflicts that it didn’t strictly speaking have to. And you might think that would trouble his America First base.
Indeed, last week a YouGov poll found just 27% of Americans and only 58% of Republicans supported the idea of such an attack.
But a closer look reveals that among those who describe themselves as “MAGA supporters”, support for an attack shot up to 72%, which seems weird.
Except that it’s not – it just represents a massive risk for Trump.
5. Trump is making out this will be a one-and-done strike, not a forever war
While he used the word “war” in his statement last night, Trump was careful not to make this sound super different from Midnight Hammer, or the illegal invasion of Venezuela he ordered in January.
Because while American involvement in long-term conflicts overseas is very unpopular with MAGA, the US military flexing its muscles in short-term surgical strikes goes down quite well with Trump’s base.
Indeed, from Trump’s statement this morning, the approach to regime change in this case seems to be America and Israel hopping in, removing the government and getting out, and hoping the people of Iran take the opportunity to ‘rise up’.
“When we are finished, take over your government,” he said. “It will be yours to take. This will be, probably, your only chance for generations.”
All of which is fine, as long as whoever rises up to take over isn’t worse than the regime already in charge…and when has that ever happened in the history of the Middle East?
And here comes the gamble. Trump’s poll numbers are, famously, in the toilet. After Epstein, he’s barely even holding on to MAGA by the very end of his fingernails. The second this stops looking like a surgical strike and starts looking like a forever war, he loses his last, most loyal supporters.
