EU’s asylum company warns Iran turmoil might result in migrant disaster of ‘unprecedented magnitude’

Turmoil in Iran could lead to refugees flooding to Europe at an ‘unprecedented magnitude’, the European Union’s asylum agency has warned.

The EU described Iran as a ‘potential flashpoint’ in a report written before the United States and Israel launched airstrikes against the country.

Outlining the possible effect on the number of asylum seekers arriving at European borders, the EU Agency for Asylum said the ‘scale of potential risk is significant’.

There is yet to be a surge in Iranians leaving their country as military action continues.

But the EU report made clear that destabilisation of the country could trigger migration flows to rival others seen in recent decades.

The last time Europe faced such a major exodus was during the 2015 Syrian refugee crisis, when more than a million asylum seekers arrived in Europe fleeing civil war in their country.

The upheaval in 2015 had a knock-on effect on Britain’s asylum numbers, after higher numbers of migrants crossed the continent and lodged humanitarian claims here.

The EU report said: ‘Displacement of just 10 per cent of Iran’s population would rival the largest refugee flows of recent decades.

Migrants cross the Channel aboard an overloaded dinghy on Tuesday this week

‘With a population of approximately 90million, even partial destabilisation could generate refugee movements of an unprecedented magnitude.

‘Although Iranian displacement has so far remained limited … the scale of potential risk is significant.’

The report went on: ‘Observers increasingly view Iran’s turmoil as a major and long-term risk, for which the outlook remains highly uncertain.’

A man walks past destroyed buildings following airstrikes in central Tehran

It said any major refugee exodus from Iran was ‘highly speculative’ but it remains unclear how risk may now have changed in the wake of the US-led conflict.

The EU organisation said a 30 per cent reduction in global humanitarian funding last year, such as cuts by President Donald Trump’s White House, could make matters worse.

It said that in the event of new crises, the funding cuts could ‘accelerate onward movement’ of refugees into other regions of the globe.

It noted that Iran currently hosts the second-largest number of refugees in the world, with 2.5million.

The EU saw 822,000 applications for international protection lodged last year, down 19 per cent on the previous year.

The fall was mainly due to fewer applications from Syrians, which fell 72 per cent from 151,000 in 2024 to 42,000.

By comparison, the number of asylum claims lodged in the UK last year fell by only four per cent to 100,625, the second-highest level on record.

Of those claims, 7,419 were from Iranian nationals and their dependants.

One European diplomat told the Times: ‘Around one in three of the irregular migrants coming into Europe are headed to the UK.

‘If we have a crisis it will be one for the Brits as well.’