Burnham’s bond nightmare means greater payments for already hard-pressed households, warns ALEX BRUMMER

During the spring and summer of 2022, as energy bills from Russia’s war on Ukraine rolled in, the governments of Boris Johnson and successor Liz Truss came under intense pressure from Keir Starmer to mitigate fuel costs for British households.

Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s Energy Bills Rebate plan and the Truss Energy Price Guarantee followed.

Both proved a huge burden on the public finances, eventually scored at £51.1bn by the Office for Budget Responsibility.

Arguably, it was the potential cost of these fuel subsidies as much as the tax changes in Liz Truss’s ill-fated mini-Budget that were responsible for the meltdown in the bond markets that drove the then Prime Minister from office.

Indications are that Prime Minister Andy Burnham, fresh from his Liverpool love-in, is staring in the face of a similar crisis.

Despite all the rhetoric and no decisions on North Sea drilling and the creation of GB Grid, there has been little to offset an impending winter fuel shock.

Energy market data firm Cornwall Insight reckons first-quarter 2027 energy bills could surge to £1,999, and EDF, one of the biggest suppliers, could go stronger at £2,076. Working people, to use Labour’s favoured term, face increases bordering on 20 per cent.

Burnham, his ideological Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh and Chancellor John Healey seem blissfully unaware of the energy price tsunami coming their way. Financial markets have made up their own minds.

In the latest trading, the yield on Britain’s 30-year gilt climbed to 6.029 per cent. The Government will doubtless explain this away as the result of energy supply problems in the Arabian Gulf and surging bond rates in the US. 

It is worth noting that the rise in the cost of British borrowing exceeded that of German Bunds. This points to a lack of faith in Britain’s energy strategy. 

The irony is that the UK is better equipped with oil and gas resources in the North Sea than most European competitors.

The Government’s response so far has been to remove VAT from domestic bills, saving households £45 a year. That barely scrapes the surface.

The pressure on less well-off households is already evident in projections showing unpaid bills reaching £7billion. Wearing an extra sweater this winter is one option, and more challenged pensioners will receive the Winter Fuel Payment.

The pressure to do more on diesel – vital to transport, petrol at the pumps and household bills – will intensify. 

Yes, the Government could provide better subsidies (never wise) and borrow more. There is no free lunch. Rising interest rates, which determine the cost of fixed-rate mortgages, are having an impact.

Nationwide reports that house prices rose in September at their slowest pace since December 2025. Climbing repayments will not encourage housebuilders to press hard on the accelerator.

Retail therapy

Land Securities boss Mark Allan makes no secret of his desire to shift away from the group’s traditional strength in developing City and central London property towards shopping centres.

The adventurous redevelopment of the area around Victoria station is nearly done. 

Landsec’s latest move is to snap up the Metrocentre in Gateshead, over the Tyne from Newcastle, for £516million.

It is a brave investment at a time when bricks-and-mortar shopping is under strain, and consumer budgets are under pressure from constantly rising food and energy prices.

The shopping deal is a long-term investment. The capital outlays needed for new London developments are riskier.

Depleted Gnomes

Hard to imagine that Switzerland’s last global investment bank, UBS, could decamp from Europe.

Then again, who would have thought mighty Credit Suisse would collapse in March 2023?

Top 20 UBS investor Artisan Partners wants a switch in domicile to New York or elsewhere. 

Artisan argues that tough new capital requirements for Swiss banks are ‘punitive’ and will destroy value for shareholders. 

Closing the door on overzealous lending comes at a high commercial and reputational price.