‘Tories will probably be unnerved by how nicely Reform did in Blackpool South by-election’

Of all the election results to have been declared so far, by far the sweetest for Keir Starmer will be Labour regaining control of Hartlepool council.

Three years ago defeat in the Hartlepool by-election capped such a terrible night for the Labour leader he seriously considered resigning. It is a tribute to how much he has transformed his party’s prospects that this morning he woke up to Labour triumphing in the Blackpool by-election and winning council seats in parts of the country which were once regarded as being dyed with indelible Tory blue.

There are, of course, plenty of results to come and it is possible that Andy Street could save some Tory blushes by being re-elected as the West Midlands metro mayor but the picture as it stands could hardly be more desultory for Rishi Sunak. The elections sage, Prof Sir John Curtice, told the BBC this morning this was “one of the worst, if not the worst, Conservative performances in local government elections for the last 40 years.”

If winning Hartlepool was catharsis for Starmer, then Labour winning back councils such as Thurrock and Redditch will be regarded as vindication of his mission to drag the party to the centre ground. Labour is particularly delighted that it has taken control for the first time of Rushmoor council in Hampshire which is home to the Aldershot army base.

It has not been a perfect night for the party. They will be disappointed not to have taken control of Harlow council, a key Westminster battleground, and there is evidence from OIdham and Newcastle that they have lost some council wards because of the fall out from Gaza.

But these setbacks will not take the shine off the result in Blackpool South by-election which Labour regained with the third highest swing since the Second World War. What will unnerve Conservatives is not just the size of the swing to Labour but the fact they came within fewer than 120 votes of being pushed into third place by the Reform Party.

This is what will play on the minds of Tory MPs as they mull the results over the Bank Holiday weekend. Reform has gone from being an existential threat into a genuine one.

Much could depend on what happens in the West Midlands and Tees Valley metro mayoral elections but Blackpool will be cited in evidence by Conservatives agitating for Sunak’s removal. This is the fruitless bind which Sunak now finds himself in: he will be under increased pressure to move even further to the right to see off the threat of Reform yet by doing so he abandons more of the centre ground to Labour.