Rishi Sunak insists common election outcome ‘not foregone conclusion’

Rishi Sunak today insisted the result of the general election is not a ‘foregone conclusion’ despite the Tories’ brutal drubbing in council and mayoral contests.

Appearing in front of TV cameras for the first time since the full outcome of last week’s local elections were revealed, the PM acknowledged ‘disappointing’ results.

He vowed he was ‘determined more than ever to demonstrate to the country that we are making progress on the areas that matter to them’.

A defiant Mr Sunak also said he was ready ‘to fight’ despite the local election results having thrown up fresh questions about his leadership of the Conservatives.

The PM evaded questions about Tory MPs urging him to change course rightwards to win back voters.

In the wake of his party’s local elections disaster, Mr Sunak had already conceded the Conservatives might not win the general election.

But, speaking this afternoon, he repeated his claim that the council contests showed Britain is on course for a hung parliament and Labour may not win outright power.

The PM was challenged over his prediction of a hung Parliament during a visit to a community centre in Islington, north London.

He told broadcasters: ‘The independent analysis shows that whilst of course this was a disappointing weekend for us, that the result of the next general election isn’t a foregone conclusion.

‘And indeed actually is closer than, or the situation is closer than, many people are saying or indeed some of the opinion polls are predicting.

‘And that’s why I’m absolutely determined to fight incredibly hard for what I believe and for the future country that I want to build, and that’s what I’m going to do.

‘Fight for this country, fight for the things I believe and deliver for everyone on the things that matter to them.’

Asked if he was planning changes in the wake of the local elections, Mr Sunak replied: ‘Obviously disappointing to lose Conservative councillors and a fantastic mayor for the West Midlands in Andy Street, and I’m grateful to them for their public service and all their hard work.

‘For my part reflecting on it, I’m determined more than ever to demonstrate to the country that we are making progress on the areas that matter to them and we are going to deliver for them.’

The PM dodged questions about MPs calling for him to rethink his strategy following the local elections.

‘What unites all members of our party, MPs and beyond, are our values as Conservatives and the type of country that we want to build,’ he said. 

The calamitous set of local elections saw the Conservatives lose almost 500 seats and all-but-one elected mayor, which has sparked a fresh battle in the Tory civil war.

Mr Sunak also saw the Tories lose the Blackpool South parliamentary by-election to Labour, with his party only narrowly beating third-placed Reform UK. 

The PM has since seized on an analysis of the council resuts that suggested Labour would miss out on a House of Commons majority.

‘These results suggest we are heading for a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party,’ he told The Times earlier.

‘Keir Starmer propped up in Downing Street by the SNP, Liberal Democrats and the Greens would be a disaster for Britain.

‘The country doesn’t need more political horse trading, but action. We are the only party that has a plan to deliver on the priorities of the people.’

Professor Michael Thrasher, a leading elections expert, said analysis of the results of Thursday’s council contest showed Labour as the largest party in Westminster but short of an overall majority.

A study of two million council wards for Sky News projected those voting figures into a nationwide estimate, with Labour leading the Tories by nine percentage points.

The analysis suggested Labour would be left 32 seats short of a majority at a general election.

But the study raised eyebrows as it flies in the face of the massive lead Labour has in almost all Westminster voting intention polls.

It was pointed out that people often vote differently in local and national elections, and there were no council contests in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland on Thursday.

Health minister Maria Caulfield this morning repeated the PM’s claim that Britain is on course for a hung Parliament.

She also claimed Tory voters who stayed at home for last week’s local elections would back the Government at the general election. 

‘It’s always difficult when you’ve been in Government and voters can send a message to a party in Government that they’re unhappy about certain things with the safe knowledge that they still have a Conservative Government in control,’ she told Sky News.

‘It’s very different come a general election where they really do have to make a choice.

‘If you look at Blackpool South, for example, the vast majority of our voters that voted for us in 2019 stayed at home, they didn’t switch to Labour.

‘They didn’t switch to Reform. They stayed at home and that shows that they haven’t really been tempted by other parties.’

Labour sought to dispel suggestions it would consider a coalition with the SNP after the general election.

Pat McFadden, the party’s national campaign co-ordinator, said: ‘Our aim is to win a majority, to govern, to meet the mood for change, and we’re not planning any alliances or pacts with anyone.’

Former home secretary Suella Braverman urged Mr Sunak to change course rightwards to win back voters in the wake of the local election results.

But she said a change of leadership was not a ‘feasible prospect’, adding: ‘There is no superman or superwoman out there who can do it.’

Among the measures Ms Braverman has urged the PM to adopt to win back voters are further tax cuts and a cap on legal migration.

Tory grandee Sir John Hayes signalled Mr Sunak should reshuffle his Cabinet, with his close ally Ms Braverman as a voice at the table for what he called the ‘authentic Tory part of the Conservative Party’.

But Conservative moderates warned against Mr Sunak lurching rightwards, with defeated West Midlands mayor Andy Street claiming after his loss that ‘winning from that centre ground is what happens’.

Damian Green, chairman of the One Nation Group of Tory moderates, made a similar plea on the BBC’s Westminster Hour.

‘I would just observe the seats that we have lost in the past few days – we lost to parties to the left of us. So I think suggesting that what we need to do is to move to the right is irrational in the face of the electorate,’ he said. 

Ben Page, chief executive of polling company Ipsos, told Times Radio that Mr Sunak’s prediction the UK is headed for a hung parliament is ‘for the birds’. 

‘I think it’s for the birds, to be honest, at the moment,’ he said.

‘If you look at the swing in Blackpool South, 30 per cent or so, you look at these local election results, which we haven’t seen anything of this kind since just before Labour won a landslide in 1997.

‘And finally, you look at Keir Starmer, and Keir Starmer isn’t particularly popular, but it’s always compared to what, if you look at how people rate Keir Starmer as best possible candidate for being prime minister with Rishi Sunak, he’s got double the score of Rishi Sunak.’