5 causes Rishi Sunak may name a normal election at present as rumours run wild

Westminster is gripped with election fever today – waiting anxiously to find out whether Rishi Sunak is going to ruin everyone’s holidays and go to the polls this Summer.

Rumours of an imminent election being called are nothing unusual. But this one seems like a bit more of a rumour. No10 have yet to squash the speculation – despite having repeated opportunities to do so.

And the stars are aligning in a number of other ways, pointing to the PM stepping out onto Downing Street to give a short speech – perhaps for the last time. But what makes this time different? Here’s five reasons it seems possible the PM could be planning to call an election today.

1. Rishi Sunak didn’t deny it at PMQs

Now, it’s not terribly unusual for Rishi Sunak to refuse to talk about when the election is going to be. It was repeated questions about the timing that prompted him to come up with the line that it was his “working assumption” that the election would be “in the second half of the year.”

But his reaction to SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn’s question at PMQs today made it seem like something else was going on. “Speculation is rife, so I think the public deserve a clear answer to a simple question,” Mr Flynn said. “Does the Prime Minister intend to call a summer general election or is he feart?”

Instead of damping down the speculation, or telling the world this was just a matter of the Westminster rumour mill going into overdrive…he laughed, and said: “There is – spoiler alert – going to be a general election in the second half of this year. At that moment, the British people will in fact see the truth about the honourable gentleman opposite me, because that will be the choice at the next election Mr Speaker, a party that is not able to say to the country what they would do, a party that would put at risk our hard-earned economic stability, or the Conservatives that are delivering a secure future for our United Kingdom.”

2. The timings work

On a purely practical level, today is a good day to call an election. Generally, before a PM tells the country he wants to call an election, they have to tell the King and the cabinet. As luck would have it, there’s a sit-down with the King already in the diary – the PM and His Majesty generally have their weekly audience on a Wednesday. And there’s an unusually scheduled cabinet meeting this afternoon too – at 4.15pm. More on that later.

Finally, it takes a week or so between an election being called and Parliament being dissolved, so the remaining Parliamentary business can be completed or shelved in what’s called the “wash-up”. Now, Rishi Sunak has been saying for a while that the election would be in the second half of the year.

If the usual timescales are followed, and Parliament was dissolved next Thursday (May 30th) – that would make election day July 4th. When does the second half of the year start? That would be July 2nd.

3. There’s a Cabinet meeting this afternoon

Cabinet normally meets on Tuesday morning – but this week it’s meeting at 4.15pm today. That’s unusual, but not unheard of – and the reason given is that Rishi Sunak was in Austria yesterday and couldn’t make the usual slot.

However, the Cabinet would also meet ahead of a general election being called – and an unusually scheduled meeting is sometimes a sign that something is afoot.

All Number 10 have said so far is that the meeting will include an update on the economy from Jeremy Hunt.

4. David Cameron is on his way home early

Lord Cameron had barely arrived for a visit to Albania this morning when he turned around and came home. (Seriously, he was there for a little over an hour). The plane carrying the Foreign Secretary back to the UK is expected to land at around 3pm – enough time to get back to No10 in time for the cabinet meeting at 4.15.

Meanwhile, it’s understood Defence Secretary Grant Shapps has delayed plans to fly to the Baltic states by a couple of hours, so he can attend the meeting.

5. The economy is …as good as it’s going to get

There was a smidgen of good news for the PM this morning – inflation is down to 2.3%, the lowest it’s been since Mr Sunak became PM, and down from the 3.2% level recorded in the year to March. And, of course, last week the UK officially grew out of recession – with Grant Fitzner, chief economist at the normally stoic Office for National Statistics said the economy was going “gangbusters”.

On the other hand, today’s inflation figure is slightly worse than was predicted by economists – and is unlikely to leave Jeremy Hunt any scope for more tax cuts in a pre-election Budget.

The whole reason Mr Sunak hasn’t called an election already is that he’s been waiting for things to get better. If he’s being told by his advisors that the economy is as good as it’s going to get, then the benefits of him waiting until November to go to the polls become fewer and fewer.