Italy braces for political earthquake as most right-wing government since WWII set to be elected

Italy is bracing for a political earthquake as the most right-wing Government seen since World War Two is expected to be handed power following tomorrow’s election.

The potential emergence of a far-right government in Italy has put the European Union on alert for disruptions – with fears that the unity of the war in Ukraine could be jeopardised.

The leader of the post-fascist Brothers of Italy Party, Giorgia Meloni, is a slated to be a big winner in Sunday’s election, becoming Italy’s first female Prime Minister.

If she wins, the other two parties expected to form a government with her include Matteo Salvini’s far-right League and Silvio Berlusconi of the centre-right, who has attracted younger voters over TikTok.

The election comes as the country is facing a number of ongoing crises, ranging from massive debt, rising inflation and an energy crisis, linked to the war in Ukraine.

The party, which has gained popularity with its ‘Italians First’ agenda, has sparked concerns in Brussels.

The campaign, sparked by outgoing prime minister Mario Draghi’s downfall in July, wrapped up on Friday, giving Italians a day of reprieve as electioneering is banned until the vote.

Draghi was respected on the international stage and a darling of the EU establishment.

A victory by Meloni and Salvini would follow fast on an election in Sweden where the virulently anti-migration and Eurosceptic Sweden Democrats entered a ruling coalition, just months before the Scandinavian country is due to take over the EU’s rotating presidency.

Wolfango Piccoli of the London-based political risk consultancy Teneo told AFP: ‘The country is eager for a change, a new face.’

But officials in Brussels said they would not jump to conclusions about Italy, cautiously hanging on to reassurances made by key right-wing players ahead of the vote.

‘This is not the first time that we risk confronting governments formed with far-right or far-left parties,’ said European Commissioner Didier Reynders, a veteran of EU politics.

He added: ‘Let voters choose their elected representatives. We will react to the actions of the new government, and we have instruments at our disposal.’

That was echoed by Commission head Ursula von der Leyen, who warned that Brussels had ‘tools’ to deal with errant member states.

She said: ‘My approach is that whatever democratic government is willing to work with us, we’re working together.’

As election day draws close, Italy has a huge amount of EU money on the line, awaiting nearly 200 billion euros in EU cash and loans as part of the country’s massive share of the bloc’s coronavirus recovery stimulus package.

In order to secure each instalment, the government must deliver on a long list of commitments to reform and cut back spending made by previous administrations.

Sebastien Maillard, director of the Jacques Delors institute said: ‘To do without the billions from the recovery plan would be suicidal.’

An EU official who works closely with Italy on economic issues added: ‘We will give them the benefit of the doubt.

‘We will judge them on their programme, who will be the finance minister. The names being mentioned are people that we in Brussels are familiar with.’

Concerns have been raised, however, about the impact the election could have with the ongoing war in Russia and Ukraine.

Many fear that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban will find in Italy a quick ally in his quest to water down measures against Russian President Vladimir Putin.

A longtime friend of the Kremlin, Salvini has promised that he will not try to undo the EU sanctions.

But many believe that his government will make the process more arduous in the coming months.

Whether the war or soaring inflation ‘what we are facing in the coming months is going to be very difficult and very much test European unity’, said Fabian Zuleeg, chief executive at the European Policy Centre.

The likely election result in Italy is “not going to help in making some of these hard decisions”, he added.

France’s European affairs minister, Laurence Boone, pointed to the headache of the far-right’s unpredictability.

‘One day they are for the euro, one day they are not for the euro. One day they support Russia, one day they change our minds,’ she told French radio.

‘We have European institutions that work. We will work together. But it is true that it is worrying,’ she added.

Last night, people in Rome said they were unsure who would win the election, but that the latest polls showed the Brothers of Italy party is likely to win and form a government.

Maria Tasca, 27, from Sicily said: ‘I am worried by the fact that the polls have the right-wing as the winner, especially Giorgia Meloni.

‘From what she has said on women’s rights, on young people’s rights, on rights in general, I see things going backwards by at least 50 years.’

A 75-year-old shop owner, who gave his name only as Dante, said: ‘The problems are worldwide, there’s no magic solution. But sometimes you have to change.’

Meloni, 45, has worked hard over the past few weeks to reassure skittish investors and an anxious Brussels that her party’s historic ties to supporters of dictator Benito Mussolini are a thing of the past.

She has softened her tone and posted a video of herself on TikTok making traditional pastries from the Puglia region.

But she channelled warrior Aragorn from Tolkien’s Lord of the Rings on Thursday at the closing rally for the right-wing coalition, which unites her Brothers of Italy with Salvini’s anti-immigration League party and billionaire Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia.

The self-described ‘Christian mother’ segued smoothly from the fantasy king to blaming the left for the country’s ‘drug dealers, thieves, rapists and mafia’, adding: ‘This Italy ends on Sunday’.

Berlusconi, 85, was at her side. The media mogul – who is on trial accused of bribing starlets not to testify about his allegedly erotic parties – has campaigned mainly online, wooing grandmothers and housewives with promises of stay-at-home salaries.

Former interior minister Salvini, 49, campaigned under the slogan ‘Credo’ (I believe), earning him a rebuke from the Catholic Church.

Fearful of losing a significant chunk of his supporters to Meloni, Salvini has tried to stand out by calling for an end to sanctions against Russia and railing against Brussels.

But the end of his campaign was overshadowed by a video clip of him describing a blind League candidate on Thursday as ‘an eye for Italians’.

The centre-left’s Enrico Letta, head of the Democratic Party (PD), rocked up to his final rally in an electric van – reminding voters of his earlier efforts to promote ecologically friendly transport, when his electric campaign bus ran out of battery.

His main rival for votes on the left, Giuseppe Conte, head of the populist Five Star Movement, seemed to have more staying power.

He was photographed so often standing head and shoulders above the crowd amid a throng of supporters that the media dubbed him the ‘travelling Madonna’.