Farage stuns No 10 and bombshell ballot suggestions Labour for large victory

Rishi Sunak suffered the darkest hour of his election campaign yesterday afternoon.

During a dramatic 60 minutes, the Prime Minister suffered a double blow as Nigel Farage entered the fray and a new poll predicted a Tory wipeout.

At 4pm, Mr Farage stunned Westminster by announcing he would return as leader of the Reform Party and stand for Parliament in the Essex seaside town of Clacton. The veteran Brexiteer declared he would lead a ‘political revolt’ – and predicted his party could overtake the Tories.

An hour later, the largest poll of the election predicted Labour was on course for its biggest win in history, with the Tories reduced to just 140 seats. 

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps and Justice Secretary Alex Chalk are among the senior ministers predicted to lose their seats.

Mr Sunak will launch a fightback today, with plans for an annual cap on immigration to cut the number of arrivals ‘year on year’.

The Prime Minister is also preparing for his first televised debate with Sir Keir Starmer tonight, in which he is expected to paint the Labour leader as an unprincipled politician willing to ‘say anything’ to seize power while hiding his true agenda.

Senior Tory sources last night insisted that opinion polls are painting an overly gloomy picture of their prospects.

One said: ‘The situation on the ground is significantly better than the polls would have you believe.’

But Mr Farage’s decision to fully commit to the election campaign dismayed many Tory candidates. One described it as ‘a disaster’, adding: ‘To have any hope of holding on I need to squeeze my Reform opponent right down and that is just not going to happen if Farage is on the TV every day making their voters think they can win.’

Another former Cabinet minister paraphrased Churchill’s comments after losing the post-war election in 1945: ‘If this is a blessing, it is very heavily disguised.’

A senior Tory last night warned that the former Ukip leader ‘risks handing Keir Starmer a blank cheque to rejoin the EU, impose the Retirement Tax on pensioners and hike taxes on hardworking Brits up and down the UK’.

But Mr Farage predicted Reform could now win ‘many, many more votes’ than the four million recorded by Ukip at the 2015 election and said he expected to attract disenchanted supporters from both parties.

Mr Farage had ruled out making an eighth bid for Parliament when the election was called last month, saying the short timescale did not give him enough time to prepare.

But, in a major U-turn yesterday, he announced he was replacing Richard Tice as Reform leader and running as a candidate in Clacton, which experts believe is the party’s most winnable seat.

Defending his decision he said: ‘I’ve changed my mind, it’s allowed.’

Mr Farage said there had been a ‘massive betrayal’ of Brexit, and that people were urging him to stand. ‘I can’t turn my back on the people’s army,’ he added.

However, the latest mega-poll last night predicted Reform would win no seats at all.

His return to front-line politics came as: 

• Labour was accused of letting down women and girls after it rejected Tory plans to protect single sex spaces;

• Home Secretary James Cleverly warned that Labour would turn the UK into a ‘global magnet for migration’;

• Diane Abbott accused Sir Keir of telling ‘more lies’ about her;

• Penny Mordaunt was asked to deputise for Mr Sunak in a seven-way TV debate on Friday where Angela Rayner will represent Labour;

• Former Neighbours star Holly Valance attended Mr Farage’s press conference and said she was willing to campaign for him on the doorstep.

Mr Farage yesterday vowed to turn the contest into an ‘immigration election’ –and highlighted the sharp rise in legal and illegal migration in recent years.

Today’s plan proposed by the Tories to ask MPs to vote on an annual cap on visa numbers is designed to address public concern over the issue.

For the first time, the Government’s immigration advisers will be asked to consider the impact of greater migration on issues like the housing crisis and access to health and education when making recommendations.

Writing in the Mail today, Mr Cleverly warns that backing Reform is equivalent to ‘a vote for Labour’, adding: ‘If Reform gifts Sir Keir Starmer the keys to No 10, people smugglers and those looking to game our generous system the world over will prick up their ears.’

Meanwhile, the biggest poll of the campaign to date suggested Sir Keir is on course to eclipse Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide win.

The YouGov survey for Sky News predicted Sir Keir could claim a 194-seat majority, with Labour winning 422 seats to the Tories’ 140. 

The result would reduce Mr Sunak’s party to its lowest number of MPs since 1906.

The sophisticated poll which analyses results down to constituency level, predicts that the Liberal Democrats will quadruple their seats, the SNP will collapse and Reform will win no seats – though it was conducted before Mr Farage announced he was standing.

It has the Tories losing 232 seats, Labour gaining 222, the Lib Dems gaining 40 and the SNP losing 31.

This would give Labour a majority of 194 seats – an increase on Sir Tony’s majority of 179.

The poll – which redraws the political map – predicts several Cabinet ministers are on course to lose their seats to Labour or the Lib Dems.

They include Welsh Secretary David TC Davies, veterans minister Johnny Mercer and Attorney General Victoria Prentis. 

Commons leader Penny Mordaunt, Education Secretary Gillian Keegan, Chief Whip Simon Hart and minister for common sense Esther McVey could also lose their seats.

Other big names including Jacob Rees-Mogg are likely to lose.

Labour is set to make gains across all areas of England, holding more seats than the Conservatives in London, the North East and the North West.

They are also expected to make huge gains in Scotland, leaving the SNP with just 17 seats.

Labour’s predicted 194-seat majority would be the highest since Stanley Baldwon a majority of 208 in 1924.

The first of three YouGov MRP polls of the election campaign collected data from more than 58,000 people.

I’m launching a revolt, he said. A deal with Rishi? Not on your nelly!

Nigel Farage said he wanted to lead a ‘political revolt’ as he announced he was standing as an MP for Reform UK in a dramatic U-turn yesterday.

Revealing he will run in the Essex seat of Clacton, he also said he will take over as Reform leader from Richard Tice.

But Mr Farage was warned that, by running for election, he risks handing Sir Keir Starmer a ‘blank cheque’ to reverse Brexit.

It also creates a headache for Rishi Sunak as Mr Farage’s popularity threatens to split the Right-leaning vote deeper, allowing Labour to seize dozens of seats without a fight.

Previous polls already predicted the insurgent party could cost the Tories as many as 50 seats.

Last night, a Tory party spokesman said: ‘Nigel Farage risks handing Keir Starmer a blank cheque to rejoin the EU, impose the Retirement Tax on pensioners and hike taxes on hardworking Brits.

‘Farage knows that Reform won’t win any seats, but he doesn’t seem to care that a vote for Reform only helps Labour. He’s doing exactly what Keir Starmer wants him to do. 

Just yesterday, European Union insiders voiced their expectation that Starmer would seek a softer Brexit deal, opening the door to rejoining the EU.

‘That would mean uncontrolled immigration and betraying the will of the British people. Only a vote for Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives can deliver a clear plan and a secure future.’

But Mr Farage defended his decision to stand, saying the Tories were on course to lose the election anyway.

‘Not on your nelly,’ he replied when asked if he was open to a pact with Mr Sunak to stand down candidates in some constituencies, having struck such a deal with Boris Johnson in 2019 to help hand the Tories an 80-seat majority and deliver Brexit.

He insisted Reform could win more votes than the Tories, but refused to say how many seats he thought his party would secure.

He said his ‘real plan’ was to overtake the Tories as the party of opposition in the next Parliament, conceding Sir Keir will win.

Revealing that he intends to lead Reform until at least the end of the next Parliament, he added: ‘We’ll be the biggest party at the 2029 general election.’ 

He said he wanted to lead a ‘political revolt’, adding: ‘Yes, a revolt. A turning of our backs on the political status quo. Nothing in this country works any more.’

The former MEP and Ukip leader has repeatedly ruled out running as an MP, but said he changed his mind on Sunday after campaigning with Mr Tice the day before. ‘What really shook me was the number of people on the streets saying, ‘Nigel, why aren’t you standing?’

‘I began to feel an enormous sense of guilt . . . I can’t let down those millions of people. So, I’ve changed my mind.’