Where it’s gone wrong for the USMNT ahead of the World Cup – and how they can fix it with weeks left

It’s not enough that the US men’s national team drew with Saudi Arabia. It’s not enough they did it in an environment with less pressure than a flat can of Coke. It’s not enough that they suffered that draw to what was basically the Green Falcons’ B-team.

It’s that they did it while looking offensively bankrupt, tactically disorganized, and as lost as a child distracted by a shiny object at a county fair.

The United States seemed woefully unprepared on this stage – a mostly empty stadium in Murcia that serves as home for a Spanish third division team – in its final tune up match ahead of a World Cup appearance fans have been waiting eight years for.

If last night showed any indication of how the team is going to perform in Qatar, we may as well have been better off waiting a little while longer.

As a whole, this United States team has problems at seemingly every level of the squad outside goalkeeping. 

The defense and midfield have seen injuries leaving out key players – both for these last two games and in the future in Qatar. The attack is inefficient and inconsistent. The coaching and tactics have been suspect at times. 

Some of these problems are easier fixes than others. But, no matter how easy they are to fix, they still must be addressed if the US hopes to make it out of the group stages. 

Defense

The Problem:

Ever since Atlanta United’s Miles Robinson burst onto the scene at the CONCACAF Gold Cup Final, he’s locked down a starting spot at center back with the USMNT.

Ever since the Syracuse University product went down with an Achilles tear in May, the USMNT has known they’ve needed to find his replacement.

New York Red Bulls captain Aaron Long has been the preferred choice at center back to replace him alongside Nashville SC star Walker Zimmerman. For the most part, he’s done well. Fans will be quick to point out mistakes he made in the game against Japan while ignoring he logged six recoveries. Mark McKenzie, Cameron Carter-Vickers, Erik Palmer-Brown, and Chris Richards have shown they can work in this system as well.

On the wings, Reggie Cannon of Boavista and Sergino Dest of AC Milan have been the main choices at right back. But once again, injuries have deprived us from Fulham left back Antonee ‘Jedi’ Robinson.

Dest was used in his place against Saudi Arabia and he didn’t seem to make many errors, but it’s not his preferred position. Sam Vines of Antwerp didn’t perform to his best ability against Japan, making his spot in Qatar shaky. On the other hand, Joe Scally of Mönchengladbach made a good defensive impact when he was subbed on in the game against the Saudis. That might be enough for him to make use of his passport this November.

The Solution: Keep Calm and Carry On, but return to normal for Qatar

Injuries can’t be helped, and Jedi should be back in time for Qatar. But the experimentation needs to end. 

The defense is probably the group that needs the least work with all the positions pretty much locked down after this camp.

It could always be better, but with few players putting up significant challenges to those starting spots, Berhalter will just need to go with his starters.

Midfield

The Problem: 

If there’s one thing the Saudi Arabia game exposed, possibly more than anything else, it showed how much the US needs the midfield three of McKennie-Musah-Adams. 

Weston McKennie of Juventus is the team’s best box-to-box option and has generated great chances in the past for the Stars and Stripes. He hit 93% of his passes against Saudi Arabia, but failed to truly be dynamic in attack like he has before.

Tyler Adams of Leeds United is the true captain of this team. He was by far the man of the match for the USA against Saudi Arabia, completing 85% of his passes, grabbing two interceptions, making eleven recoveries, and winning 50% of his tackles. He’s not expected to generate offense, but he’s the spark plug for any attack the US has. 

Yunus Musah of Valencia was absent due to injury, leaving the USMNT to experiment with the third spot in their midfield. Luca de la Torre of Celta Vigo didn’t do the best he possibly could and it may have cost him a roster spot. Johnny Cardozo of Independiente was the player who replaced Musah at this camp and he made no impact in the Japan game.

Kellyn Acosta of Los Angeles FC started the Saudi Arabia game, and while it’s hard to say he’s the reason the midfield wasn’t productive, what can be said is that the midfield seems different with him there. Sure, the United States completed 85% of their passes, but they created only one big chance in the Saudi Arabia game.

The Solution: Keep it simple and start Musah 

In the 12 matches the USMNT played in 2022, Berhalter fielded eight different starting midfield combos featuring various lineups of McKennie, Adams, Musah, Acosta, de la Torre, and Brenden Aaronson. He’s also subbed on players such as Cardozo, Malik Tillman, Cristian Roldan, Gianluca Busio, and Paul Arriola. The last time he put the same starters on the pitch in consecutive matches was in January.

Berhalter mentioned after the Saudi draw that his team lacked confidence, but it’s hard to build that confidence when the lineup in the midfield constantly changes. 

It goes without saying that the M-M-A midfield group is the best the USMNT has to offer. Musah’s injury isn’t serious and he should be good to go to Qatar. Acosta is a perfectly viable option off the bench, but Berhalter needs to dance with the ones that brought him. 

When fielded, M-M-A won 1-0 over El Salvador, lost 2-0 to Canada (with Gyasi Zardes playing striker for 69′), and drew 0-0 with Uruguay. In those games, they held 63% possession, 64% possession, and 54% possession respectively. The team as a whole generated at least nine shots in those matches with at least three on target and completed at least 80% of their passes.

They’re the most consistent three midfielders the US has to offer. If we don’t see them walking out of the tunnel together onto the field against Wales, the USMNT could be in for a rough go at it.

Attack

The problem:

Eric Wynalda. Brian McBride. Landon Donovan. Clint Dempsey. When the United States made each World Cup between 1990 and 2014, these were the strikers they used. Going into Qatar, they’d wish they had that level of striking efficiency.

In this section, we’re going to analyze the statistics of six players: Jesus Ferreira of FC Dallas, Jordan Morris of the Seattle Sounders, Jordan Pefok of Union Berlin, Josh Sargent of Norwich City, Ricardo Pepi of Groningen, and Christian Pulisic of Chelsea.

In the 12 games the United States has played this season, this group only scored ten goals. Total. The leading scorer of this bunch is Ferreira with five, Pulisic has four to his name, Morris has one, and the others haven’t scored. 

There are caveats to that. Of Ferreira’s five, four were scored in a 5-0 CONCACAF Nations League game against Grenada. Of Pulisic’s four, three were scored in a 5-1 thrashing of Panama. 

Pulisic leads the team in total minutes in 2022 with 741 and naturally, Ferreira follows with 522. Following them is Pepi with 277 minutes. Morris has 248. Sargent and Pefok have each played less than 50.

Looking at their club scoring statistics, these minutes aren’t exactly distributed according to merit. While Christian Pulisic will clearly get the most minutes – and at times can be the most dynamic player on the field – there are three major discrepancies.

First, Josh Sargent has been the highest scoring American since August in his league games alongside Ferreira. With Norwich City in the EFL Championship, Sargent has been brilliant, grabbing six goals and an assist in eight matches. Ferreira is level on goals, but Sargent has shown he deserves to be back in the conversation for forwards. However, that appears to be too late. He only got 45 minutes of play against Japan as his only time with the US this year.

Second, Jordan Pefok is arguably the best striker the United States has as of right now based on performance related to the challenge given by the league. Sargent’s six goals are nice, but he never scored in 2022 in the Premier League. Ferreira’s goals came atop the scoring table in MLS. Pulisic hasn’t scored for Chelsea this season.

Meanwhile, Pefok has formed a perfect tandem with Sheraldo Becker at Union Berlin. He’s joint-sixth in the Bundesliga scoring table with four goals and two assists as Union sit atop the league. But the last time he touched the field for the US was against Mexico in March.

Finally, Ricardo Pepi has the greatest discrepancy between goals and minutes given. He hasn’t scored for the USMNT since October 2021, yet of this group, he has the third most minutes in 2022. Pepi flopped at an Augsburg side desperate for a striker and only put up his first goal of 2022 earlier this month playing with Groningen in the Eredivisie. 

As of late, he hasn’t shown that he deserves a roster spot. Berhalter has given him plenty of chances, yet he has not scored.

There’s also the question of Timothy Weah. The winger has been injured for a while but is due back sometime in early October. He scored against Morocco in June, but with all this time missed, it’s unclear if he’ll make the roster. 

When it comes to a roster spot, Pulisic and Ferreira have a place in the team locked down. The US should have room for at least two more offensive players, but it’s unclear who they’ll bring.

The solution: Bring Jordan Pefok, Timothy Weah, and Jordan Morris

Pefok has shown that he is more than deserving of a roster spot, even before the Union move. He showed out with BSC Young Boys in the Champions League and grabbed eleven goals for them in 2022. The consistent decision to not play him is baffling.

Morris has proven himself as a valuable option coming off the bench in replacing Pulisic. Despite low goal numbers, he’s proved to be dynamic as a substitute.

Weah fits into the same category of dynamic substitute. Brenden Aaronson and Gio Reyna will most likely be given starting minutes at right wing, but Weah can provide a great burst of pace off the bench in the late stages of matches. 

Sargent needed to go down a division in order to find goals and he found them just a little too late.

Bringing Pepi would show that Berhalter is blind to statistics and reason. His star burned bright and fast, but he shouldn’t be on this roster.

Coaching  

The problem: 

This is less of what the United States can do now, and more of what they can do in the future.

Gregg Berhalter was hired as USMNT coach in 2018 after a successful time with the Columbus Crew, qualifying for MLS Cup Playoff berths four times in five years – including a march to the finals. 

He was chosen over coaches such as Tata Martino and Miguel Herrera by the United States Soccer Federation, whose chief commercial officer at the time was Jay Berhalter – Gregg’s brother.

It would be lazy and possibly unfair to suggest this was a nepotism hire – but it’s not entirely out of the question. From an outside perspective, there seemed to be very little debate as to who would eventually get the job – with Berhalter seemingly hand picked from the beginning of the search.

Berhalter has owned a winning record of 36-10-10 in his time in charge of the Stars and Stripes. However, those ten losses have stung the USMNT.

Tactically, Berhalter has been inconsistent and inefficient. It’s been a criticism that’s followed him since the day he took the job.

It was seen last night. The United States continually tried playing lofted through balls down the wing – something that isn’t typical of their traditional style of play. It didn’t work, with the US generating only two shots on target.

With just over 50 days until Qatar, the United States needs to find a way to get back to a place they’re comfortable. Otherwise, they’re doomed to fail. 

The solution: Replace Berhalter before the World Cup OR simplify the game 

Let’s start with the second option, which is the easiest and more likely than the first one. As we’ve illustrated, the United States is set up pretty well defensively and in the midfield. Before, Americans criticized the team for relying mostly on counter attacking to generate chances. It was a valid criticism, seeing as players like Dempsey and Donovan were great strikers who could benefit with more offensive chances. 

The way the team is currently set up, it seems like a perfect chance to rely on counter attacking. When healthy, the midfield is strong; and the United States did well against Saudi Arabia defensively. 

If Berhalter can’t adjust to his team, he needs to go. His constant changes haven’t allowed the squad to gel and it’s hurting them. There’s little time for a replacement in this cycle and the fanbase is impatient and has called for Berhalter’s firing for some time now.

If American Soccer Twitter had its way, Thomas Tuchel would be announced as the USMNT manager tomorrow – seeing as he isn’t doing anything else. Beyond it being a highly unlikely move, it would be an awkward reunion with Pulisic – who was consistently benched under Tuchel at Chelsea.

A more practical option would be to find a coach who has experience with coaching a majority of this team. The easiest move would be a promotion for Anthony Hudson, who worked with the U-20s for a year before moving up to assistant coach with the USMNT.

Another option could be Tab Ramos. He led the U-20s for eight years and has seen the development of most of the current USMNT squad. Ramos was boss of the U-20s for three straight U-20 World Cup appearances and took players like Yedlin, Acosta, Adams, McKenzie, Dest, and Weah along with him among other Qatar hopefuls.

Ramos was recently announced as the head coach of Hartford Athletic in the USL Championship and has turned that team around to win three of their last four after a slow start to the season.

It might be hard to pry him away from Hartford to take this job, but if it’s just for this World Cup cycle, it might be worth it.

Either way, the interviews for next head coach need to start lining up soon. Unless Berhalter pulls out some miracle run in Qatar, it’s hard to see any way he keeps his job.