Putin ‘sabre-rattling’ however China would not need Russia to make use of nukes

Vladimir Putin’s talk of a potential change Russia’s nuclear policy is merely “sabre-rattling”, an expert has said, explaining the Russian president could be too worried about a response from China.

Bad Vlad’s deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov said over the weekend that Russia is engaged in a process to change its nuclear doctrine. This is the policy that outlines the circumstances in which nuclear weapons can be used.

The Russian president and his Kremlinite cronies have been infuriated by the cross-border incursion by Ukraine into Kursk. Ukrainian President Voloydmyr Zelenskyy told NBC News that Ukraine has no plans to “bring our Ukrainian way of life” but will hold the territory for as long as it deems necessary.

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“For now, we need it,” he said.

Furious, Russia slammed “escalation” by the West, blaming the situation on Ukraine’s major backers.

To the Russian state media agency Tass, Rybakov said: “There is a clear direction to make adjustments, which are also conditioned by the study and analysis of the experience of conflict development in recent years, including … everything related to the escalation course of our Western opponents in connection with the SVO [special military operation].”

Russia has the most nuclear warheads of any country in the world, with over 5,500. At Putin’s fingertips is the capacity for total devastation, but using a nuke is likely to bring about an escalatory counter-strike that will plunge the world into armageddon.

Currently, Russia says it has the “right to use nuclear weapons in response to the use of nuclear weapons and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it and/or its allies, as well as in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation using conventional weapons, when the very existence of the state is threatened.”

Dr Rod Thornton, Reader in Russian Defence and Security Studies at King’s College London, said Russian talk of changing its nuke doctrine is merely an attempt to warn the West over its support over Ukraine.

“Their talk of changing nuclear doctrine is a bit of sabre rattling, or what used to be called in the Cold War “rocket rattling” to try and stop the West from giving Ukraine more help,” he told the Daily Star.

The Russia and military expert added that Putin is “very unlikely” to use nuclear weapons because it needs the support of China.

China has denied supplying Russia with weapons, but the US said China has given Putin vital components to bolster its war machine.

Dr Thornton said: “Putin is very unlikely to use nuclear weapons.The Chinese will not want the Chinese to use nuclear weapons because then the whole world might go up in flames which won’t suit the Chinese at all given their economy and the fact they need peace around the world.

“Any upsetting of the apple cart in terms of international stability by Putin – more than he has done already – will not be approved of in Beijing. It is just a bit of sabre rattling.”

Since the war in Ukraine broke out, there has been consistent talk of the potential use of so-called “tactical” nukes.

These weapons have a lower destructive yield and could be used to target smaller military targets with a force that can be as little as 1 kiloton, around 14 kilotons less than the Hiroshima bomb dropped during World War Two.

Some experts are concerned Russia might consider tactical nukes to be a viable alternative to using its biggest warheads and that this could be brought closer to reality by a change in nuclear doctrine.

But the power of tactical nukes is still massively destructive. An explosion would still produce radiation and has the potential to cause thousands of deaths.

Dr Thornton also suggested the use of a tactical nuke is still likely to have massive consequences, saying “It is not a question of gradations, you either use nuclear weapons or you don’t”.

He said: “The thing about nuclear weapons use is you cross a rubicon… Whether it is a big one or a small one it is the symbolic nature of their use that is the rubicon. Even if it was a very small one it is going to produce radiation, a mushroom cloud, all the kinds of things you associate with nuclear weapons… China wants a peaceful world and Putin needs Chinese support in his war.

“They can change nuclear doctrine all they like. Why would they want to rhetorically say ‘Ah, we’re going to change nuclear doctrine’? It is just a signalling kind of tool, just trying to signal to NATO ‘Back off’.

“If they want to use nuclear weapons, they just use them.”

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