UK faces ‘La Niña’ return as colder winter could come early with spring a washout

A “weak” La Niña could emerge within just weeks, potentially bringing a cooler start to winter and a wetter spring for Britain.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasts a 55% likelihood of La Niña forming between September and November, increasing to 60% from October 2024 through February 2025. El Niño and La Niña represent the warm and cool phases of a repeating climate pattern across the tropical Pacific, with each phase impacting global weather and ocean conditions in contrasting ways.

Last year marked the third consecutive La Niña event, dubbed a ‘triple dip’, which was linked to disasters like severe flooding in Australia and drought in the southwestern United States, reports AP.

Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the Met Office, explained in 2020 that “La Niña has a profound effect on weather across the globe with us even seeing impacts that extend across the UK.”

He added: “In late autumn and early winter, it historically promotes high pressure in the mid-Atlantic, which stops Atlantic weather systems from delivering mild air to the UK, and therefore can allow cold conditions to intensify. However, in late winter La Niña can drive a shift of the jet stream towards the poles, increasing storminess and heavy rainfall, while bringing milder conditions.”

Meanwhile, the Met Office has issued its latest verdict on reports that parts of the UK could see snowfall at the end of October, reports MEN. The agency gave a ‘fact check’ on recently reported suggestions that the country would be blasted by snow at the end of October – with some publications saying a ‘150-mile snow blitz’ was heading our way.

The Met Office said while “chillier weather” could be expected in the north, there is no forecast suggesting that widespread snow will hit the UK in the coming days. They added there is a possibility of snow on “high ground”, but that this is “normal” for this time of year.

Posting to X/Twitter, the weather agency wrote: “A reminder that some online snow headlines don’t always reflect the reality of the current forecast.” In its own forecast, the Met Office said: “Late-month weather is likely to be more settled in the south, with more frequent wet and windy weather in the northwest. Any snow will likely be confined to high ground in the north, as is normal for the time of year.”

In its long-range forecast for October 28 to November 6, it said: “Initially breezy with large amounts of cloud and some outbreaks of rain, especially in northern and western areas, with generally drier conditions farther southeast. However, high pressure is likely to build more strongly across the southern half of the UK by midweek, tending to restrict any wet and windy weather to the far northwest. That said, areas of cloud trapped underneath this high pressure may still produce drizzle in places, with also an increased chance of frost and fog.

“Later next week and into the following weekend there may be a tendency for high pressure to retreat, bringing an increased chance of breezier conditions and some rain at times, possibly wintry on northern high ground. Temperatures near or above average initially, but possibly turning colder later, especially in the north.”

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