Experts weigh in on Kamala Harris’ ‘hundreds of thousands’ of silent Republican voters within the 2024 election
In the closing weeks of the campaign season, Kamala Harris has been ramping up her outreach across the aisle with an appeal to more moderate Republican and Independent voters.
On the campaign trail, the vice president says she is for ‘all Americans’ and has held a series of swing state events with anti-Trump Republicans including with former Republican Rep. Liz Cheney.
It comes as the presidential race appears razor-thin with Harris leading by less than half a point nationally according to polling averages.
In order to win, Harris will also need Republicans voting for her on November 5.
Earlier this week, Cheney claimed that Harris would receive that support with ‘millions of silent’ GOP voters who are turned off by Trump.
But do hoards of these mysterious GOP voters leaning toward voting Democrat actually exist? Experts tell DailyMail.com that it is a bit more complex.
Liz Cheney speaking alongside Vice President Kamala Harris in Royal Oak, MI on October 21. She said millions of Republicans will quietly vote for the Democratic presidential nominee in the November election
‘I certainly have many Republicans who will say to me “I can’t be public.” They do worry about a whole range of things regarding violence, but they’ll do the right thing,’ Cheney said in Oakland County, Michigan, on Monday.
She claimed there are ‘millions of Republicans’ who are ‘concerned’ and will ‘vote their conscience’ come November 5.
Republican strategist Kevin Madden believes the idea of ‘hidden’ voters is unfounded at this point as both campaigns have spent billions identifying voters and what motivates them.
‘Both campaigns know where they are and what they need to do to mobilize them. The election is the test of their ability,’ he said.
‘Harris is in a difficult position because, just like her first campaign effort in 2019, she enjoyed a brief surge of attention, but then failed to close the deal with voters,’ he went on.
But others have been spending millions and significant time trying to reach potential Republicans for the vice president. They believe the ‘millions’ estimate is not unfounded.
One group to look at when it comes to Republicans willing to vote for the Democrat is those who voted for Nikki Haley in the Republican presidential primary.
In the seven battleground states alone, nearly one million people voted for the former South Carolina governor in the 2024 primary.
While a vast number are expect to return to the fold and vote for Trump in the general election, whom she endorsed, there remains those who are done with the MAGA wing of the party.
Robert Schwartz is the Michigan director of Haley Voters for Harris.
‘Based on people that are answering the polls is that a third, you know that a third of these Haley voters, at least, and probably another five or 10 percent are absolutely going to vote for Kamala Harris,’ Schwartz said.
‘There’s certainly going to be a million, more than, probably closer to 2 million people that voted in the Republican primary for Nikki Haley nationwide that are going to be voting for Kamala Harris this year,’ he said.
His group has been testing for digital ads targeting center-right voters. It found democracy messaging was not moving the needle, but economic messaging was.
They’re now targeting the Republican Haley voters and some 300,000 others with the ads in an effort to shift their thinking.
Voters participating in early voting in the 2024 election in Greensboro, NC. More than 33 million people have already cast ballots in the election including early voting and vote-by-mail
Down in North Carolina, the state’s Haley Voters for Harris director Michael Tucker, who previously served on the board of the Mecklenburg County GOP, argued they don’t even need ‘millions’ or Republicans when Trump only won the state by less than 75,000 votes.
He said the outreach there has been about giving Republicans the ‘permission structure’ to vote for a Democrat without being one because the current Republican party doesn’t represent the values of Ronald Reagan and John McCain.
While some of the GOP voters planning to vote for a Democrat also backed Biden in 2020, he has found there are more registered Republicans joining the group in 2024 as they hit a tipping point with Trump’s rhetoric.
‘It’s not a big tend party anymore,’ Tucker said of the Republican party after Trump rejected the support of Haley voters from the primary.
‘There’s no room in the MAGA GOP extreme party,’ he said.
‘People are kind of having an identity crisis,’ he added of the Republicans who are not onboard with MAGA.
Tucker said there has been a silent element to it too.
When door-knocking, he comes across split households with husbands and wives voting for different candidates and focused on different issues.
‘Reproductive rights has hit a chord,’ he said, noting that’s part of what is behind the large gender gap.
Former GOP presidential candidate Nikki Haley endorsed Trump months after bowing out of the Republican primary race. She has been vocal in her criticism of Harris and Biden but when asked about getting her out to campaign with him, Trump touted how badly he beat Haley in the primary rather than asking her to appear with him on the trail
As for Haley herself, she has endorsed Trump. But the ex-president has not been keen to see her out on the campaign trail for him. When asked about it recently, he touted her losing badly to him in the primary.
John Conway from Republican Voters Against Trump agrees with Cheney’s assessment, pointing out Trump has been alienating people since 2016.
‘There’s going to be a cascade of Republican voters who are going to reject Trump at the ballot box,’ Conway said.
He has been working on Republican voter focus groups where they speak with two-time Trump voters who will not vote for the ex-president a third time. The number one reason why they are breaking with him is the attack on January 6.
Some were reluctant to cast a ballot for him in 2020 but insurrection was the final nail. Since then, some have shared that Trump as become more extreme speaking about the ‘enemy within’ as well as becoming a convicted felon.
Conway said the majority of Republicans will support Trump and many will do so enthusiastically, but he is looking at the margins which he believes will decide the election.
Republican Voters Against Trump has also been doing focus groups with so-called ‘flippers’ who voted for Trump once and Biden once. He said a number of them were backsliding with the Trump-Biden debate in June, but when Harris took over the ticket, she was able to reconsolidate some of those voters.
Those who voted for Biden but are reverting back to Trump have shared their number one issue is the economy followed by immigration.
Conway said while the GOP coalition will have shifted in 2024 from the past, the vast majority that have moved away from Trump are still locked in for Harris.
Where the vice president has also been vulnerable is being an undefined candidate with such a short campaign, but Conway believes she has been able to introduce herself successfully to these voters.
What remains to be seen is who actually turns out versus who stays home on Election Day, but more Republicans continue to speak out.
Retired Michigan Congressman Fred Upton is one of the latest Republicans to publicly back Vice President Kamala Harris
Former GOP Michigan Congressman Fred Upton who served 36 years in the House was one of the latest Republicans to endorse Harris this week.
Waukesha, Wisconsin, Mayor Shawn Reilly, who represents a deep Republican stronghold, is also among those who are publicly speaking out about voting for Harris. He left the GOP after the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol in 2021.
Reilly previously voted third party in 2016 and for Biden in 2020 but kept it to himself.
‘I feel in my heart that this is something that I need to come out and say,’ he told a local TV station. He said his vote this year is one against Trump.
