Veteran strategist reveals main issue all pollsters are ‘lacking’ as he predicts secret wave on eve of one of many closest presidential elections in historical past
Veteran political strategist Alex Castellanos has said pollsters are overlooking a huge shift in Republican voter registration – which could tip the scale toward Trump in the final days of the campaign.
Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are locked in what polls indicate is a razor thin margin and some are predicting the presidential election could unravel as one of the closest in US history.
Harris is set to appear in Pittsburgh on Election Eve along with pop star Katy Perry as Trump barnstorms through North Carolina, Pittsburgh, and Grand Rapids, Michigan.
On Sunday, Melania and Barron Trump were spotted jetting to Mar-a-Lago, where the MAGA crew was expected watch the election results pour in.
Meanwhile, Castellanos – who worked on campaigns for Mitt Romney and George W. Bush – told Fox News that he believes pollsters are missing a key piece of evidence.
Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign rally at Jenison Field House on the Michigan State University campus in Lansing, Michigan on Sunday
Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump holds a rally in Kinston, North Carolina, on Sunday
‘I think the pollsters are getting this wrong. They are all missing something because they’re giving us the same poll over and over again’, he said.
He continued: ‘What I think they are missing is a massive shift in voter registration underneath all of this.
’31 states have voter registration by party, 30 of them in the past four years have seen movement towards Republicans.
‘Yet we are getting these surveys that are off base. I’m not going to call it a wave but I think there’s a “wavelet” out there of Republican enthusiasm in registration.’
The prediction came as Trump finished off a marathon swing state tour with a rally in Georgia after appearing at events in Pennsylvania and North Carolina.
He started all three Sunday rallies with the same question: ‘Are you better off now than you were four years ago? Kamala broke it and I’ll fix it very quickly’.
Appearing an hour-and-a-half late to the event in Macon, Georgia, he adorned himself in a black-and-gold MAGA cap.
He told the packed crowd: ‘The United States is now an occupied country. This is thousands of people all over our towns and cities.’
He referenced the case of Minelys Zoe Rodriguez-Ramirez, who was murdered in the state last week. The suspect was in the country illegally, according to Trump.
Trump also backed Robert F. Kennedy Jr, who dropped his own bid to be president to support Trump, to work on ‘women’s health’ and ‘pesticides’.
Addressing the crowd, he said: ‘With your vote on Tuesday, I will end inflation, I will stop the invasion of criminals coming into our country.
‘We’re at the five-yard line, maybe even the one-yard line. This is really all you need to know: Kamala broke it and I’ll fix it.’
Secret Service agents are seen here as the ex First Lady made her way onto a private plane in New York on Sunday
While he covered serious ground, his wife Melania and son Barron were spotted leaving Trump Tower in New York City
A mass of Louis Vuitton luggage and Presidential emblem on 6 Suit clothing covers were loaded into a support vehicle before leaving in a motorcade of 10 vehicles
More than 75 million Americans have voted early in an unprecedented and exhausting campaign where the candidates are separated by razor-thin margins in the states that will decide the election.
A stunning Iowa poll by famed pollster Ann Selzer showed the Democrat leading in the deep-red state sparked a sudden shift in momentum as Trump and Harris frantically rallied across the swing states.
On Sunday morning, a New York Times poll had Harris leading in five of the seven battlegrounds, with ties in Michigan and Pennsylvania – the state expected to decide who will take the keys to the White House.
But the results were in the margin of error, and pollsters have said the race is a coin flip that will be decided by a few thousand votes.
The Selzer results out of Iowa were the most shocking. The state has been solidly red for years, backing Donald Trump in 2016 and 2020 by almost ten percentage points.
A 21-point swing toward Harris, in a decidedly Republican state, would certainly be cause for concern for the Trump campaign – especially since the findings highlighted a glaring vulnerability for the former president – his support among women.
The boost in last-minute polls for Harris over the weekend and saw her chances of beating Trump in the betting markets improve.
On the betting platform Polymarket, Trump is the favorite to take victory in five of the seven swing states.
The Real Clear Politics average of the battlegrounds also gives Trump similar odds, even with the race tied nationally.
While he covered serious ground, his wife Melania and son Barron were spotted leaving Trump Tower in New York City.
A mass of Louis Vuitton luggage multiple suits were loaded into a support vehicle before leaving in a motorcade of 10 vehicles.
Harris, meanwhile, appeared confident. She told supporters in East Lansing, Michigan, on Sunday night that she ‘has the momentum’.
Harris walks to board Air Force Two as she departs Oakland County International Airport in Waterford Township, Michigan, on Sunday
Trump also backed Robert F. Kennedy Jr, who dropped his own bid to be president to support Trump, to work on ‘women’s health’ and ‘pesticides’
Trump finished off his marathon swing state rally day on Sunday evening with a rally in Georgia
The Vice President dashed across four stops throughout battleground state Michigan on Sunday without even using Trump’s name
The vice president dashed across four stops throughout battleground state Michigan on Sunday without even using Trump’s name.
She said she trusts the upcoming vote tally, and urged voters ‘in particular people who have not yet voted to not fall for this tactic, which I think includes suggesting to people that if they vote, their vote won’t matter.’
Throughout the appearances she sought to contrast her optimistic tone with the darker message of her Republican counterpart.
She said: ‘We have an opportunity in this election to finally turn the page on a decade of politics driven by fear and division.
‘We are done with that. We are exhausted with that. America is ready for a fresh start, ready for a new way forward where we see our fellow American not as an enemy, but as a neighbor.’
While Trump branded America a ‘failed nation’, Harris said: ‘There are those who seek to deepen division, sow hate, spread fear and cause chaos.’
As Trump referred to Harris’ party as ‘demonic’, Harris quoted the prophet Jeremiah and told her friendly audience she saw ready to ‘chart a new way forward.’
Addressing what was a largely student crowd in East Lansing, Harris promised to seek consensus.
Nate Silver, pictured, said Trump’s momentum ‘petered out’ in November, bringing the race back to a coinflip
Alex Castellanos, who worked on campaigns for Mitt Romney and George W. Bush, told Fox News that he believes pollsters are wrong with their predictions
‘I don’t believe people who disagree with me are the enemy,’ she said. ‘In fact, I’ll give them a seat at the table because that’s what strong leaders do.’
Polling guru Nate Silver gave Trump a 51.5 percent chance to win the electoral college, while Harris walked away with a 48.1 percent chance of victory.
Silver, who left Five Thirty Eight in 2023 and took his forecasting model with him, made his latest prognostication on his Substack blog called the Silver Bulletin.
Silver was first referring to the final poll done by The New York Times that showed Trump running behind Harris in four critical swing states: Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin.
That poll also showed Trump with a lead in Arizona, while the two were tied in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
The Morning Consult poll results, as Silver mentioned, were slightly kinder to Trump.
He led Harris by two points in Georgia and in North Carolina. Morning Consult also found that three states were in a dead heat: Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Silver also said the bombshell poll from famed pollster Ann Selzer showing Harris beating Trump by three points in Iowa ‘probably won’t matter’ in determining the electoral college winner.
Trump Force One prepares to land at a campaign rally at Kinston Jet Center on Sunday
Trump supporters parade through West Point Palm Beach on Sunday in support of the former president
Polling guru Nate Silver gave Trump a 51.5 percent chance to win the electoral college , while Harris walked away with a 48.1 percent chance of victory
But Silver wasn’t too quick to dismiss the results as totally meaningless, saying Harris supporters were right to have a strong reaction.
‘I think Harris voters are reasonable in rejoicing over the Selzer survey. At the very least, it clinches the case that there will be plenty of numbers from high-quality pollsters in the final batch of polls that support a Harris victory – along with roughly as many that imply a Trump win,’ he continued.
‘If Trump had “momentum” in October, it has now petered out in November. And we will very likely go into Tuesday night with the race being truly a toss-up, not leaning or tilting toward Trump.’
DailyMail.com’s polling partners J.L. Partners have also seen movement in their election model following the stunning Iowa poll.
The results have had a ripple effect through the Midwest in our model, shifting Michigan from ‘TOSSUP TRUMP’ to ‘TOSSUP HARRIS’.
Wisconsin also sees a two-point drop for Trump, but that is not enough to change it from ‘TOSSUP TRUMP’.
The final DailyMail.com/J.L. Partners national poll before Election Day showed Trump overtaking Harris by three percentage points nationally.
The poll of 1,000 likely voters, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent, shows that Trump is trending up, with the support of 49 percent to Harris’ 46 percent.
