How the climate forecast may predict if Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins the 2024 election
On Tuesday, Americans will decide whether Vice President Kamala Harris will be the first female president, or former President Donald Trump will win a second term.
The economy, abortion, January 6 and the southern border will influence how Americans will vote. But experts say another factor will play a big role in their decision: the weather.
AccuWeather meteorologists have issued a severe thunderstorm and flood warning on Election Day for much of the central US, including in the pivotal swing state of Michigan.
‘Torrential downpours, localized flash flooding and the risk of lightning strikes can cause trouble for workers and voters waiting in long lines at the polls, as well as travel delays,’ the alert reads.
Oklahoma is currently under a tornado warning after intense storms crossed the state Saturday night and Sunday. It’s unclear whether the threat will extend into Tuesday, but it’s possible that the rough weather could affect voting in this state.
And it’s not just the logistical barriers that the bad weather throws up.
A political strategist told DailyMail.com that a stormy day can also impact voter mood and sway the undecided toward a particular candidate.
When an undecided voter goes to the polls feeling pessimistic, they may be more inclined to vote for a candidate whose campaign is based on doom and gloom, Bradley Tusk explained.
It’s a general rule of thumb that rain benefits the Republican ticket, Tusk said. Storms throughout the central US could give Trump a boost on Tuesday
He claimed that Trump’s campaign strategy falls into that pessimistic category, whereas Harris’ messaging revolves around optimism and hope for the future.
Therefore, ‘If you went to the to the polling place on a miserable day and you were truly undecided, from a pure subconscious standpoint, arguably, that would advantage Trump,’ said Tusk.
In fact, it’s a general rule of thumb that rain benefits the Republican ticket, Tusk said.
But that’s not because all Republicans run pessimistic presidential campaigns.
‘Lower voter turnout works better for Republicans,’ Tusk said.
That’s because more people tend to vote Democrat – which is also why this party sometimes wins the popular vote, but not the electoral vote, he explained.
Research has shown that rainfall negatively impacts voter turnout.
One study estimates that for every centimeter of rain that falls on voting day, turnout falls by 0.95 percentage points.
Rain can induce a bad mood. When undecided voters go to the polls feeling pessimistic, they may be more inclined to vote for a candidate whose campaign is based on doom and gloom
While that may seem like an incremental impact, heavy rain or extreme weather in a swing state could, in theory, alter the results of an election.
While the central US will be mired in storms, AccuWeather has predicted warm and dry conditions on Election Day across much of the East Coast and Southeast.
This could boost voter turnout and mood, thus increasing support for Harris, according to Tusk.
Parts of the Rocky Mountains could see rain and snow, and temperatures will be chilly throughout the West and Southwest on Tuesday, possibly resulting in a slight advantage for Trump.
But election day weather in the seven swing states – Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada – is really ‘the only weather that matters,’ Tusk said.
As for the reason why: ‘Ultimately, it’s because of the Electoral College,’ he said.
‘The US does not determine the president by who wins the most votes. It determines who wins by 270 Electoral College votes, which are allocated by state,’ Tusk said.
Therefore, a bad weather forecast in Michigan could have a significant impact on the election results, helping Trump to win this critical battleground state.
Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump visited North Carolina in the wake of Hurricane Helene. This storm could have a strong influence on the 2024 election
As North Carolinians pick up the pieces of their homes and communities, it’s safe to assume that this will have a negative impact on voter turnout, though this remains to be seen
And Hurricane Helene’s devastating impact on swing state North Carolina could prove to be influential too, Tusk said.
‘North Carolina is one of the seven states that will determine who the next president of the United States is going to be,’ he said. ‘You can’t really have much higher stakes than this.’
The storm made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane on September 26.
Of the six southeastern states that it impacted, North Carolina took the brunt of the devastation, and also happens to be the only affected swing state.
About half of the total deaths occurred in North Carolina, which was battered by torrential rain, widespread flooding and high winds.
State officials have reported 96 deaths related to the storm, and estimate that Helene caused at least $53 billion in damages and recovery needs.
As North Carolinians pick up the pieces of their homes, it’s safe to assume that this will have a negative impact on voter turnout, though this remains to be seen, Tusk said.
Western North Carolina can expect between 0.01 and 0.50 inches of rain on Tuesday, according to the National Weather Service.
This could dampen the mood among voters that do make it to the polls and further increase support for Trump.
Some experts believe voting day conditions have swayed elections before, though this is less fact than political lore, Tusk cautioned.
During the 1960 election when John F. Kennedy beat Richard Nixon, voting day was clear and sunny across the US. Some experts speculate that this gave the Democratic ticket an advantage.
And in 2000, when George W. Bush ran against Al Gore, election day was rainy in Florida – the deciding state for this election.
The bad weather lowered voter turnout in some strongholds for Gore, such as Pensacola. This may have played a role in securing the presidency for Bush.
