Mitch McConnell played down Republican chances of retaking the Senate on Thursday, when he said that ‘candidate quality’ would have a big impact on the outcome.
He did not elaborate further. But he made his comments at a time when many senior Republicans worry that former President Donald Trump has promoted celebrity candidates, with a high profile but no political track record, over more impressive campaigners.
His picks, such as TV physician Dr. Oz and former sports star Herschel Walker, are struggling to build momentum with less than three months until the midterms.
‘I think there’s probably a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate. Senate races are just different — they’re statewide, candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome,’ the Republican Senate leader said in Florence, Kentucky, at a Northern Kentucky Chamber of Commerce lunch.
‘Right now, we have a 50-50 Senate and a 50-50 country, but I think when all is said and done this fall, we’re likely to have an extremely close Senate, either our side up slightly or their side up slightly.’
Parties that control the White House, Senate and House usually face a drubbing in midterm elections.
‘I think there’s probably a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate. Senate races are just different — they’re statewide, candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome,’ said Republican leader Mitch McConnell during an event in his home state of Kentucky
First-time candidates such as Herschel Walker, left, and Dr Oz won their way through Senate primaries with the backing of Donald Trump, but are struggling against Democratic opponents
In Ohio, J.D. Vance won through a tight primary with the help of Trump, but is now running neck and neck with Democratic candidate Tim Ryan in a state that has trended Republican
Hillbilly Elegy author Vance (left) shakes the hand of former President Donald Trump during a Save America rally after Trump gave Vance his endorsement
Add in President Joe Biden’s historic unpopularity and Democrats had assumed that 2022 would follow that pattern.
But in recent weeks they have claimed a handful of legislative victories, while watching Republican primaries deliver wins to candidates backed by Trump, but opposed by other GOP heavy hitters.
In some cases, Trump’s endorsement was enough to put them over the top. But they are generally untested, first time candidates.
In Pennsylvania’s open Senate race, Dr. Oz is trailing far behind Democratic candidate John Fetterman, who has found his opponent to be an easy target for social media burns.
As a result, on Thursday the nonpartisan Cook Political Report changed its rating from ‘toss up’ to ‘lean Democrat.’
Fetterman’s campaign has successfully branded Oz an out-of-state carpetbagger, and raised money from a video in which the TV celebrity muddled the name of a grocery store while shopping for crudité.
‘Fancy French appetizer plates aside, a simple glance at Oz compared to the hoodie-and-shorts clad tattooed Fetterman, and it’s not surprising to discern who comes across as more authentic and relatable to voters,’ the Cook Political Report concluded.
Pennsylvania’s Democratic Senate hopeful John Fetterman raised half a million dollars overnight by chiding Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz for going shopping for ‘crudite,’ pushing that the Republican is too elite for his adopted state of PA
At the same time in Georgia, Walker has been unable to translate his status as a state sporting hero into decent poll numbers. He is running a double digit deficit to Raphael Warnock, even as Republican Gov. Brian Kemp is putting up a strong fight against his Democratic challenger.
Walker has been buffeted by questions about the number of children he has fathered, and adverts describing how describing how he once held a gun to a girlfriend’s head and threatened to pull the trigger.
In Ohio, which has trended more Republican in recent years, Trump’s pick J.D. Vance (who beat out a rival backed by the big spending Club for Economic Growth) is only running neck and neck with Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan.
And in Arizona, Blake Masters was trailing Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly by 14 points in Center Street PAC poll this month.
All of it has McConnell playing down victory hopes and Democrats jubilant.
‘Senate campaigns are candidate-versus-candidate battles,’ said the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s David Bergstein.
‘And right now, the Republican roster of recruits, it’s looking like a bunch of rotten crudité.’