England live by the sword and they’re prepared to die by it too… it’ll be an Ashes series for the ages: Our experts NASSER HUSSAIN, DAVID LLOYD and JASON GILLESPIE give their predictions
- The Ashes begin on Friday and promises to be one of the most exciting series
- England have had success with their fresh attacking approach under Ben Stokes
- They are, however, yet to come up against a side as good as the Australians
It is the most keenly-awaited Ashes since 2005. England have had a whirlwind 12 months during which they have won 11 out of 13 Tests, but Ashes holders Australia are as strong as ever and have just been crowned World Test champions after their comprehensive victory against India.
Here our experts — former England captain Nasser Hussain, former England coach David Lloyd and Australian fast bowling great and former Sussex and Yorkshire coach Jason Gillespie — answer the big Ashes questions…
England have been transformed under Ben Stokes and Brendon McCullum with their ‘Bazball’ heavy metal cricket while Australia remain formidable but largely traditional under Pat Cummins. Will this Ashes see a clash of styles?
Nasser Hussain: It’s a clash of styles to a degree. England are playing a different brand of cricket to any of their sides of the past whereas Australia are a more orthodox team with the likes of Steve Smith, Marnus Labuschagne and Usman Khawaja looking to bat normally.
But they do have Travis Head, who Ben Stokes said he admired in our recent interview, doing it differently, as we saw in the World Test Championship final. Both sides have players who can adapt.
Ben Stokes’ side have won 11 of 13 Tests under the all-rounder’s stewardship but are yet to face a side as good as Australia
England’s new attacking mindset has set up the most intriguing Ashes series since 2005
Australia themselves are the best side in the world – proved by their recent World Test Championship win over India
David Lloyd: I think Australia will, to an extent, go toe to toe with England. The thing that struck me about the Ireland Test was England didn’t break sweat. There were no silly shots but they just kept scoring quickly.
It might be a different kettle of fish now because this is a formidable Australia attack but England will still try to be very aggressive. Australia have always wanted to score quickly, too — they will just have their own type of aggression.
Jason Gillespie: I don’t think it will be a clash of styles as such but what I am sure about is that the cricket will be of a very high standard. The team that hold their nerve the most will win.
It must be said, England have been playing some wonderful cricket. People talk about ‘Bazball’ and how aggressive it is but it’s certainly not reckless cricket. It’s not slogging and what stands out for me is good decision-making with a really positive mindset.
Will England have to adapt their approach against Australia or can they succeed with all guns blazing?
Lloyd: England will have to adapt. They will still have attacking intent but it won’t be a six or seven-an-over onslaught. They might have to settle for four or five. It’s going to be a hell of a battle between our batters’ style and their top quality bowlers.
Gillespie: They will find it more of a challenge because of the quality of Australia’s bowling. I can’t see England scoring at the same rate as they have been.
Good teams think on their feet but I do believe that, come rain, hail or shine, England’s approach will continue to be ultra-positive and if in doubt they will go even harder. They have lived by the sword over the last year and they will be prepared to die by it, too.
England have adopted an aggressive philosophy with the bat, but may have to adapt their approach
Harry Brook has been one of the key finds of Stokes and Brendon McCullum’s reign
Joe Root, meanwhile, remains England’s best batter and is the stalwart of the side
Hussain: What Stokes, McCullum and Rob Key want in their line-up are batters who can soak up pressure but also put it back on the bowlers. It’s not been all gung-ho even if the run-rate suggests it has been. But you only have to look at those run-rates to know that if in doubt they will take the attacking option against Australia.
Are you worried about Ben Stokes’ knee?
Gillespie: If I were England I’d be a bit concerned because his ability to bowl dictates the balance of their side. I don’t think anyone’s expecting him to bowl 20 overs a day but he can still be an impact bowler, maybe 10 overs a day over three spells. If his knee is bad and he can’t do that, it will put more onus on the other quicks.
Hussain: No more than I have been over the last year or so and England have been winning plenty of games in that period.
Long term he’ll probably end up as a batter who bowls very few overs but in this Ashes I think he’ll bowl when needed. We will all be asking if he’s injured for two sessions of a day’s play and then he’ll come on and bowl six overs. We’d love him to be the old Ben Stokes and bowl 15 overs on the bounce but I think those days are gone.
Lloyd: No, I’m not actually. I watched him put a decent session in off a full run before play on the last day against Ireland so I’d expect him to do his bit as fourth seamer. The problem he’ll have as captain is when will he take himself off because there’s evidence in the past that once he’s got the ball in his hand you can’t get it off him.
Ben Stokes continues to struggle with a knee issue and it’s likely his bowling abilities will be limited
Were England right to recall Moeen Ali and would you throw him straight in at Edgbaston or go with an all-seam England attack? And if you’re picking Moeen, who misses out?
Lloyd: I’d definitely play a spinner at Edgbaston and if they’ve decided it’s Moeen then so be it. It could have been a real exciting time for Rehan Ahmed— and both of them would improve the batting — but Moeen will be more effective if there’s any spin in the pitch.
I also want pace so Mark Wood or Josh Tongue have to be there — if you’re asking me I’d go for Tongue — so there’s no Stuart Broad for me. England must have both spin and real pace.
Hussain: The way the weather has been and with a good forecast I would play Moeen in the first Test. Edgbaston can be flat and take turn before the end.
It is a sad indictment of our spin bowling reserves that we have to turn to a guy who retired two years ago from Test cricket but we have to go on Moeen’s word that he’s ready to come back into that Ashes cauldron. It’s a difficult one but I would probably leave Broad out here too and play him at Lord’s because I want the extra pace of Wood or Tongue at Edgbaston.
England recalled Moeen Ali (left) to the side after two years away from red ball cricket
It’s likely he will play the first Test, but England could go for an all-seam attack at Edgbaston
Gillespie: I’d be reluctant to go into a five-day Test without a spinner, especially if Stokes is able to be the fourth seamer. I thought England might have gone for Will Jacks instead but, look, we can all see why they went for Moeen because he’s a quality cricketer.
I don’t think it really matters that he hasn’t played a Test in two years. He’s been there and done it. Their best seam attack for me is Broad, James Anderson and Ollie Robinson — Wood will come in later for a couple of Tests depending on conditions and to give someone a break.
One of the big questions in 2019 was how on earth do you get Steve Smith out? Is it as pertinent now as ever and will he have benefited by playing for Sussex this season?
Hussain: Nothing’s changed, as we saw in the first innings at the Oval against India. Just because he was leg before three times in county cricket doesn’t mean suddenly he’s a walking lbw. England — and all sides — have bowled one way then another at him and he just makes hundreds. It is still the puzzle everyone is trying to solve, that’s why his stats are phenomenal.
Gillespie: It can’t have hurt for him to play county cricket before an Ashes series! There are a lot of theories about how to bowl at him and people talk about hanging the ball wide. I’d be more inclined to attack that off-stump, fourth-stump line because he can nick one, just like anyone else, and if it nips back the stumps are in play.
Lloyd: I think England will give him a good examination this time, especially with pace. It benefits any player to play and I have no issue with him playing for Sussex but he didn’t have it all his own way. Look at the times he was out lbw — so the No 1 plan for me would be for England to bowl straight and at his pads. He got hit on the legs a lot at Sussex…
England will again be tasked with getting out Steve Smith, who dominated the last Ashes series in England
Smith scored 774 runs for Australia – the most of any player – as they retained the urn in a 2-2 draw
Who are the key performers on both sides and who do you expect to stand out?
Gillespie: I’m biased as his coach at South Australia but I’m a huge fan of Travis Head. He has experience of English conditions, he’s in good nick, as we saw at the Oval, and is playing in his typical aggressive way. If England really want batting-friendly surfaces, that could play into his and Australia’s hands. Pat Cummins is a key figure and how much he bowls himself is a good question.
For England, I’ll be fascinated to see how Jonny Bairstow goes. He’s been preferred to Ben Foakes with the gloves and before he was injured was in as good form with the bat as ever in Test cricket. Ben Duckett has come on in leaps and bounds, too.
Lloyd: I look at both pace attacks and think they’re both bang on but the one bowler nobody will say too much about is Nathan Lyon and he is one hell of a spinner.
We’re talking about whether Moeen will play but there’s no way Australia are leaving Lyon out. He’s a match-winner with almost 500 Test wickets and, if I were having a little bet, I’d have him as leading wicket-taker in the series.
Hussain: David Warner is very important for Australia. He can take games away from England but if they get him cheaply they might get Labuschagne and Smith in at 20 for two rather than 150 for two and that could be key. Cummins against Joe Root is a big battle and whether the Australian captain can stay fit for the whole series is a big factor, too.
Bairstow is very important with both bat and gloves. His keeping will be under the microscope with Foakes left out.
David Warner is important for Australia – he can take the game away but is also not in form
All eyes will also be on Jonny Bairstow after the returning Yorkshireman took the gloves from Ben Foakes
Stokes told Nasser he would still declare on the last day at The Oval should England be 2-1 up in the series and leading by 300 with three wickets down. Is that right or are the Ashes simply too important to take the draw out of the equation?
Hussain: He has stuck to his word every step of the way after telling Ian Ward on Sky right at the start he wouldn’t play for draws and he did tell me I could hold him to it!
Whether McCullum would be tapping him on the shoulder on that final day and saying ‘let’s just win the Ashes’ I don’t know. But they have been consistent in saying making Test cricket entertaining is the bigger picture, so I do think Stokes would declare in those circumstances.
Lloyd: I loved it when he said that, Nasser. Ben is turning the game on its head! I’m all for it. I just wonder whether this is a message to the game. There are no draws in Twenty20 cricket — why should we have them in Tests? It’s like he’s saying, ‘We’ll let you have a go but we can bowl you out’.
Think about captains who have declared and then lost in the fourth innings. David Gower and Garry Sobers? They were both similar to Ben in their desire to entertain.
Gillespie: It’s easy for Ben to say that now — but when we get to the nitty gritty and in that moment, only he knows if he will really do that.
Don’t get me wrong, I like the thinking. That’s a winning mentality and looking to entertain the crowd has been the hallmark of the Stokes-McCullum partnership. It pains me to say it about England but it’s great viewing and an attitude they have never remotely had in the past. It looks a hell of a lot of fun and it will rub off on the next generation.
England are looking to regain the Ashes for the first time since 2015, with Australia dominating the last series down under, winning 4-0
Can we have a prediction please?
Hussain: 3-2 but I just don’t know which way it will go! I’ll go England but Australia won the World Test Championship final for a reason. They are a very good side. It could be a special series.
Lloyd: Much as my heart says England, I’m afraid you’re not going to like this. I’m going 3-1 Australia — this is England and there must be some rain around at some point to allow one draw — because they’re such a powerful side. The gambler in me would be having a little tickle on that…
Gillespie: I agree with you Bumble, I’m going for Australia to win 3-1. I also think there will be one draw, with a bit of weather around or just a hard-fought match, but I’m backing the Aussies to win! They’re in great shape…