Conservatives going through worst end in social gathering historical past with 130 seats

The Conservatives are charging in direction of their worst ever election defeat in historical past, that would see them win simply 130 seats, based on a famend polling knowledgeable. 

Sir John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, says prime minister Rishi Sunak has suffered a tumultuous autumn after a number of makes an attempt to present his premiership a lift failed to enhance his standing amongst voters.

The PM – who entered workplace on October 25 final yr after Liz Truss‘ disastrous 44 days in Number 10 – has up to now failed to enhance his voting prospects regardless of trying to appease the Tory proper on quite a lot of fronts.

Gestures such because the delay to the ban to new petrol vehicles, the scrapping of the costly HS2 mission’s northern leg, a minimize to National Insurance and final month’s dramatic reshuffle have all didn’t woo supporters.

Sir John has urged that the general public has ‘stopped listening’ to what the Tories need to say – and believes they may very well be heading for electoral meltdown. Polling knowledge from YouGov and Ipsos presently places Labour round 20 factors forward of the Tories.

‘If these patterns have been to be replicated in a basic election, the end result for the Conservatives may very well be bleak certainly – possibly as few as 130 seats, the worst end result within the social gathering’s historical past,’ he advised the Telegraph.

He added that the continuing infighting inside the Tories – worsened by the sacking of Suella Braverman, a favorite among the many social gathering’s proper, and the departure of Robert Jenrick as immigration minister – would do little to enhance its picture amongst voters.

Sir John mentioned: ‘In pursuing their disagreements with Mr Sunak over immigration, Tory MPs ought to realise they’re doubtlessly enjoying with hearth.’

Mr Sunak has used latest weeks to try a revival of his social gathering’s fortunes, from scrapping HS2’s northern leg from Birmingham to Manchester to delivering a two % minimize in National Insurance within the Autumn Statement.

He has additionally sought to appease the Tory proper by delaying internet zero insurance policies, together with the ban on new petrol vehicles, and by pushing again on ‘woke’ tradition. 

Early subsequent week, he’ll put his social gathering’s loyalty to the check with a crunch vote on emergency Rwanda laws that can search to declare, in UK regulation, that the nation is secure for asylum seekers – regardless of the courts ruling that it isn’t.

None of those efforts, nonetheless, have appeased voters – who’ve cited extra urgent issues, akin to the price of dwelling disaster and the state of the NHS, as being extra essential, based on a Survation ballot carried out final month.

Under present laws, a basic election have to be held by the tip of January 2025.

Winning simply 130 seats would spell catastrophe for the Tories, which returned to authorities beneath Boris Johnson in 2019 with 365 seats. It now has 350 MPs within the Commons.

It can be fewer than the 165 Conservative MPs returned in 1997, the yr of Tony Blair’s New Labour landslide.

Ongoing voting intention polling suggests the social gathering’s electoral prospects are exhibiting little signal of enhancing.

A YouGov ballot commissioned on December 7 put the Tories on 22 per cent, behind Labour on 45 per cent. Polls by We Think carried out at across the similar time put Labour on the identical determine, however the Conservatives at a barely greater 25 per cent.

Despite this, the hole between Labour and the Tories has remained in double digits for greater than a yr.