Rishi Sunak’s Tories are going through a 1997-style wipeout on the common election in accordance with a ballot giving Labour a landslide 120-seat majority.
The YouGov survey of 14,000 folks signifies the Conservatives might maintain on to as few as 169 seats with Keir Starmer coming into Downing Street with 385. It suggests the Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, the Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, and the Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt might be amongst 11 Cabinet ministers to lose their seats.
In a large blow to the PM, the ballot additionally exhibits the Tories dropping each so-called “red wall” that Boris Johnson gained from Labour on the 2019 common election. Support for Reform UK could be decisive in 96 Tory losses regardless of the Nigel Farage-linked occasion not choosing up a single seat, the polling suggests, whereas the SNP would additionally undergo.
The analysis was commissioned by a bunch of Tory donors working with former Brexit negotiator Lord David Frost, who advised The Telegraph the outcomes had been “stunningly awful”. He mentioned: “It makes clear that the Tory party faces a 1997-style wipeout, if we are lucky. The party will lose nearly 200 seats, the worst loss of seats since Arthur Balfour in 1906.”
In a brutal verdict, he added: “If we don’t act, there will soon only be smoking rubble left.”
The dire findings additionally come simply hours earlier than No10’s election chief Isaac Levido briefs Tory MPs on the 1992 Committee on the state of nationwide polling on Monday night. Responding to the ballot, ex-PM Theresa May’s former pollster, James Johnson, mentioned the figures prompt the Tories path to victory had “all but vanished”.
He mentioned: “Twelve months ago, I wrote that Rishi Sunak had a narrow but viable path to victory. That path has all but vanished — due to half-measures on immigration and the PM’s campaigning style. If he does not change his approach radically, he will be remembered as the PM that took a weakened Conservative Party and let it sink further into the depths of defeat.”
Some Tory MPs have already responded with panic to the ballot, together with ex-Cabinet minister Sir Simon Clarke, who mentioned the outcome could be a “disaster”. He mentioned on social media: “The time for half measures is over. We either deliver on small boats or we will be destroyed.”
Lord Zac Goldsmith, who stop the Government final 12 months, added: “Thank God for those clever-clog ‘Tory grandees’ who got rid of Boris. Dodged a bullet there didn’t they! Genuis.” Another Johnson ally and ex-Tory MP Nadine Dorries mentioned: “No10 can’t keep spinning that Sunak is more popular than the party – it’s proven that it’s total b******s it’s him bringing the party down as he has been doing from day 1.”
But talking on Monday, the Defence Secretary Mr Shapps, who might lose his seat, claimed the Tories can “absolutely” flip round their dire electoral prospects on the election later this 12 months. Despite being approach behind Labour within the polls, he added: “The reason I think we can turn it around is because at least people know we’ve got a plan and we’re working to it. There isn’t a plan under Labour.”