The UK sunk into recession on the finish of final yr in unwelcome information for a Prime Minister who’s already dealing with issues in all places he seems.
At the beginning of 2023, Rishi Sunak optimistically vowed to develop the economic system, however at present he finds himself blamed for a disaster which critics are dubbing “Rishi’s recession“. On prime of that, a devastating mega-poll urged the Tories may face an unprecedented wipeout on the subsequent common election, dropping all however 80 seats.
Needless to say the stress is on to ship, with the nation set to go to the polls inside months. Unfortunately the PM’s dug himself right into a gap by making 5 massive pledges for the general public to guage him by. Ominously, these embody stopping the boats and chopping NHS ready lists – extra on these beneath.
Here’s how he is faring on the 5 key guarantees. Spoiler – it makes grim studying for No10.
Pledge 1: Grow the economic system
The PM began final yr with such optimism, pledging that issues would get higher on his watch. But figures launched by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) confirmed the economic system shrank by 0.3% between October and December final yr – worse than consultants had anticipated. This adopted a decline of 0.1% the earlier quarter.
A recession is outlined as two consecutive quarters – or two three-month durations in a row – the place gross home product (GDP) declines. GDP is a measure of the scale and well being of the economic system.
No10 and Chancellor Jeremy Hunt are desperately attempting to place a constructive spin on issues, claiming the economic system has turned a nook, however there is no doubt that is damaging in an election yr. Both Labour and the Lib Dems have branded it “Rishi’s recession” and that can be a really troublesome factor for the PM to shake off.
Pledge 2: Stop the boats
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PA Wire)
Rishi Sunak should lie awake at evening wishing he’d by no means made this pledge.
Last yr 29,437 individuals are recognized to have reached the UK by crossing the Channel. And an extra 1,553 have made the damaging journey for the reason that begin of 2024.
That, coupled with a mammoth asylum backlog, which was near 100,000 on the finish of December, explains the PM’s desperation to push by means of the Rwanda scheme. He claims it will deter folks coming to the UK with out permission – however critics say it is simply an costly gimmick.
Pledge 3: Cutting NHS ready lists
Another pledge that hasn’t aged properly.
In January final yr the PM instructed voters: “NHS waiting lists will fall and people will get the care they need more quickly.” At the second, NHS England figures present, 7.6million individuals are ready for non-emergency remedy.
Unfortunately from the Government, that is 600,000 greater than it was in December 2022. Earlier this month, when requested on TalkTV whether or not he’d didn’t ship on this promise, Mr Sunak conceded: “Yes, we have.”
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Pledge 4: Cutting nationwide debt
Mr Sunak will need to have a minimum of achieved this, having bragged about doing so, proper? Not so, sadly.
In November, the PM stated in a social media that the nationwide debt was calling, a declare he repeated later within the month. In actuality it is gone up, with newest figures displaying Government debt was 97.7% of GDP.
That’s 1.9 proportion factors increased than it was a yr earlier. To make issues worse, ONS factors out it is at a degree “last seen in the early 1960s”. And Mr Sunak was rapped by Sir Robert Chote, chairman of the UK Statistics Authority (UKSA).
He stated the PM’s claims “may have undermined trust in the government’s use of statistics and quantitative analysis in this area”. Eesh.
Pledge 5: Halving inflation
The under-pressure Prime Minister can take coronary heart that from the 5 issues he stated would occur, one in every of them did.
He stated that inflation would halve by the top of 2023. In January final yr it stood at a large 10.7%, with spiralling costs piling distress on thousands and thousands as the price of dwelling disaster took maintain. By December the determine had lowered to 4.2%, based mostly on the Consumer Prices Index.