The Met Office has confirmed a “one in 250-year” climate occasion is underway. And it has the potential to ship temperatures within the UK plummeting.
Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) is occurring excessive within the environment for the third time since November. It’s the primary time three SSW occasions have occurred throughout an prolonged winter interval since data started.
Despite its title, SSW tends to result in durations of chilly climate – typically even snow. It happens when temperatures within the stratosphere improve and chilly air descends quickly within the polar vortex. This in flip could cause modifications within the jet stream.
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Changes within the jet stream may create what are referred to as “areas of blocking pressure”, which preserve chilly circumstances in situ over the UK for extended durations. This course of is what led to the notorious ‘Beast from the East’ in 2018.
Although snow like we noticed in 2018 is not anticipated within the coming days, some elements of the nation (notably within the north) may see some over hills in the beginning of subsequent week. Temperatures are anticipated to fall on the similar time.
Boffins on the Met Office have calculated simply how uncommon it’s to get three SSW occasions like now we have had in latest months.
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Professor Adam Scaife, Head of Long-Range Forecasting on the Met Office, mentioned: “Although we have not seen it before, we recently documented the chances of an unprecedented three SSW events happening in one winter. Our research work, using multiple computer simulations, showed that this could occur about once in every 250 winters.
“Although that is very uncommon, we additionally discovered that the possibility of a number of SSW occasions is elevated throughout El Niño and so the possibility of a number of occasions this winter is raised.”
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