- Polls close in local elections across England and Wales as vote counting begins
- Council seats up for grabs in 107 authorities, while there are 11 mayoral contests
- Blackpool South by-election was also held on Thursday with Labour eyeing a win
- Rishi Sunak is nervously awaiting results that might decide his political fate
- Tory rebels are poised to pounce on a dismal night with a fresh bid to oust the PM
Polls have closed tonight in local elections that could decide Rishi Sunak‘s fate – as well as being a final test of voter opinion ahead of the looming Westminster contest.
The Prime Minister – and Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer – will be nervously awaiting the results of council elections across 107 local authorities in England.
Voting also took place from 7am on Thursday in 11 mayoral contests, 37 police and crime commissioner elections, and a parliamentary by-election in Blackpool South.
Tories fear they could lose up to half of the council seats they are defending.
Mayoral battles in Tees Valley and the West Midlands will also be a key barometer of Conservative and Labour fortunes ahead of the general election.
In London, Labour mayor Sadiq Khan is expected to win an historic third term in City Hall despite a challenge by Tory rival Susan Hall over ULEZ and crime rates.
The Conservatives are predicted to lose to Labour in Blackpool South, which would be the seventh Westminster by-election the party has lost with Mr Sunak as PM.
There are some concerns in Tory ranks that the party might even finish third behind Reform UK, the Nigel Farage-backed outfit, in the Lancashire seat.
Conservative rebels are poised to pounce on a dismal night for Mr Sunak by mounting a fresh effort to oust the PM from No10 in the coming days.
Sir Keir will be hoping for a strong performance from Labour – particularly in key ‘Red Wall’ areas – to show they are on track for power at Westminster.
The first council election results are expected shortly after midnight, while the mayoral results aren’t due to be announced until Friday afternoon.
The Blackpool South declaration should come in the early hours of Friday morning.
Rishi Sunak was canvassing in Chelsea with his wife Akshata Murty on Thursday morning as the country headed to the polls in local elections
Sir Keir Starmer and his wife Victoria arrived at a polling station in London this morning to cast their votes
As polls closed tonight, Labour MP Pat McFadden MP, the party’s national campaign coordinator, said: ‘The most important election of the night is the historic by-election in Blackpool, caused by yet more Tory chaos and scandal.
‘It’s the only election today where voters have had the opportunity to directly reject Rishi Sunak’s party in Westminster.
‘It’s going to be a long night and the full picture of results from local elections may not be clear until over the weekend, but we expect to see Labour gains that show we’re making progress in the places we need to win the next general election.’
Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey also sought to pile the pressure on Mr Sunak, saying: ‘Up and down the country, so many lifelong Conservative voters backed the Liberal Democrats today’.
Every voter in England and Wales was able to cast a ballot in at least one type of election before 10pm on Thursday.
There were 2,600 council seats in England up for grabs across 107 authorities.
Many of the seats were last fought in 2021 – a year in which the Conservatives did particularly well in local elections at a high point in Boris Johnson‘s premiership.
The Tory slump since then was demonstrated by the latest YouGov poll, published on Thursday, showing the party on 18 per cent with Labour on 44 per cent.
This was the lowest Conservative vote share of this Parliament, lower than under Liz Truss, when it sank to 19 per cent.
The survey of 2,010 British voters, conducted between April 30 and May 1, also showed the Tories only three percentage points ahead of Reform on 15 per cent.
As well as the mayoral contest in London between Mr Khan and Ms Hall, there are also likely to be close-run battles in Tees Valley and the West Midlands.
Polls suggested narrow contests between Conservative incumbents Ben Houchen and Andy Street, respectively, and their Labour rivals.
The result of the Blackpool South by-election is likely to be declared just before dawn breaks on Friday, with Labour tipped to take it from the Tories.
The parliamentat contest was prompted by the resignation of former Tory MP Scott Benton from the House of Commons after he was caught up in a lobbying sting.
The Conservatives won the Lancashire seat at the 2019 general election, with Mr Benton as the party’s candidate, with a more than 3,500-vote majority.
But Labour have overturned significantly greater Tory majorities in recent by-election contests in Kingswood, Wellingborough, Tamworth, Mid Bedfordshire and Selby and Ainsty.
On Thursday, Mr Sunak and his wife Akshata posed for pictures out campaigning in Chelsea, while Sir Keir went to vote in London with wife Victoria.
Other politicians gave a glimpse into their family lives, with Mr Houchen carrying his baby into a polling station in Tees Valley.
Both main parties sought to manage expectations ahead of polling day, with Chancellor Jeremy Hunt insisting governments can get ‘punished’ in local elections.
He told Sky News: ‘Tony Blair easily lost those amounts of councillors.
‘And, you know, David Cameron lost hundreds of councillors in the run up to the 2015 general election.
‘So, you know, we are expecting to see significant losses. That often happens in local elections.
‘But what we say to people is, look, this may be a moment when you want to express a view about the national picture.
‘But actually the local services you depend on will be decided by how you vote.’
Meanwhile Labour said the mayoral system favours incumbents, though Sir Keir Starmer said he is ‘hopeful’ it will win the West Midlands contest.
Wins for both Mr Houchen and Mr Street and would offer the Tories a ray of light in what forecasts suggest could be a dismal set of results.
But experts warned the metro mayor races would be the ‘least reliable indicator’ of what could happen at a general election.
Both Mr Houchen and Mr Street received backing from Mr Johnson.
The PM’s press secretary said the former premiers interventions were welcome, despite both candidates having appeared to have distanced themselves from their party allegiance throughout campaigning.
Polling guru Sir John Curtice told an Institute for Government event this week the Tories were emphasising the two mayoral battles ‘because they think they might manage to win the contest and therefore they’ll be able to cover whatever disasters happen elsewhere’.
‘Because of the personal votes of these two, (these contests are) going to be the least reliable indicator,’ he said.
‘Equally, conversely here in London, Sadiq Khan will not do as well as the Labour Party would do in a general election because Sadiq has a negative personal vote. But this city is now so strong Labour, he’s going to win anyway,’ he said.
In a final message before polling stations open, Sir Keir said: ‘Britain is, despite everything this Tory government has thrown at it, a great country.
‘Its people, businesses, and communities continue to come together in the face of adversity. It is a strong nation of pride and potential, with boundless ambition for its family and its community.
‘But it needs a government to match that ambition, and with a plan to unlock it. Today, you have a chance to vote for that change, and pass a verdict on fourteen years of decline. You can start to rebuild our country and take your community in a different direction.’
The Liberal Democrats, who have focused campaigning efforts in traditional Conservative areas, said polling day would be a moment for Mr Sunak to ‘face the music’.
Sir Ed Davey said the results would be a ‘damning verdict on record waiting lists, sewage destroying rivers, and the worst cost of living crisis in a generation’.
‘The country knows the buck stops at the door of Downing Street,’ he said.
Sadiq Khan and his wife Saadiya Ahmed voted in London this morning as the London mayor seeks to win an historic third term in City Hall
Tory candidate Susan Hall challenged Mr Khan over ULEZ and crime rates in the capital as she sought to oust him from office
Enzo the dog waits at a polling station in London
Top Cabinet ministers rushed to Mr Sunak’s defence ahead of the local election results.
Penny Mordaunt, the Leader of the Commons, dispelled rumours of a leadership bid and pledged to stand by the PM.
She told MPs on Thursday: ‘I too have read that I’m to be installed rather like a new boiler into No10 next week.
‘And I have to say there is as much truth to these stories as there is in Labour’s assurances to its business community that it isn’t actually going to do the things it’s been saying it’s going to do, as it’s promised its union paymasters.
‘But let me say again, I support our PM and I will continue to support him after this weekend and beyond.’
On Wednesday, Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch insisted that the PM was safe regardless of the outcome of the local elections.
She told Sky News: ‘I think there’s a lot of noise being made by people who want to get attention but the PM has the full backing of the Cabinet, he has my full backing.’
Asked whether that would be the case even if the Conservatives suffered a drubbing on Thursday, Ms Badenoch said: ‘I think that is right.’
Mr Sunak’s press secretary did not deny a Bloomberg report that Mr Sunak told Tory staff that they could be part of the ‘greatest comeback in history’, in an admission of the scale of the challenge he faces.
The press secretary said: ‘There is no doubt that we have work to do. It’s obviously been a really tough time for the country with Covid and Ukraine and the impact of that on inflation.
‘But… I can look back at the last week, we’ve done a massive defence announcement which Labour have not matched, which means that our country would be at risk under Labour.
‘We’ve done a massive welfare intervention to address the unsustainable rise in the welfare bill. And we are clearly making some progress on tackling illegal immigration.’