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Sadiq Khan’s bid for a third term as London mayor is hanging in the balance today as insiders warn the election is too close to call.
Votes are set to be counted in the capital with Labour on high alert for Tory candidate Susan Hall to pull off a shock upset.
Polls in the run up to the ballot on Thursday had shown Mr Khan with a comfortable lead of between 10 and 22 points.
However, jitters started spreading through Labour circles yesterday amid rumours of a spike in turnout in outer London – typically dominated by Conservative voters and where anger about the ULEZ expansion has been most fierce.
Official turnout figures last night suggested it had been higher in outer London and lower in inner London – Mr Khan’s normal stronghold.
Supporters of Mr Khan are worried that he could have been damaged by a wider trend of Muslim voters shunning Labour over Keir Starmer’s strong support for Israel.
Bookies change odds as London race tightens
As Labour fears grow over an election loss in London, the bookies have been changing the odds for Sadiq Khan winning a record third term.
Yesterday morning Khan was 1/25, this morning he is down to 1/10.
Meanwhile, Conservative rival Susan Hall was an outsider at 19/1 yesterday but is now at just 7/1.
If Khan wins this year, he will become the first London mayor to serve three terms in office.
Betfair spokesman Sam Rosbottom said: ‘While Sadiq Khan remains the favourite to win the race for London Mayor this morning, doubts are clearly creeping in and Betfair Exchange punters are now seriously eyeing Tory rival Susan Hall as a contender.’
Sadiq Khan ‘will be losing sleep over result’
As crunch time approaches for the London mayoral race, Labour worries are mounting over whether there might be a shock loss in the capital.
Labour has faced backlash among some of its supporters for its stance on the Israel-Hamas war and the ongoing situation in Gaza.
The i’s political correspondent Eleanor Langford told BBC 5 Live: ‘Three’s a lot of anxiety over the Mayoral race in London.
‘[I’m] sure Sadiq Khan has been losing sleep over it.’
The local elections for this year have proved to be torrid for the Conservative party as Labour have made hundreds of crucial gains in key election battlegrounds.
Rishi Sunak suffered the indignity of seeing a Labour mayor win in his own constituency.
The Prime Minister is braced for further pain as more results trickle in over the weekend which could increase pressure on his leadership of the Conservative Party and the country.
Elections expert Professor Sir John Curtice said the Tories could be on course to lose 500 councillors in ‘one of the worst, if not the worst’ performances by the party in 40 years.
To see which parties won in your area, follow our interactive map below to reveal all the changes in England’s political makeup.
Diane Abbott says Labour has dismissed supporters’ concerns about Gaza
Former frontbench Labour MP Diane Abbott has claimed Labour’s alleged dismissal of supporters’ concerns about Gaza is ‘shameful’.
Abbott lost the Labour whip in April last year after she said Irish people, Jews and Travellers don’t experience racism as black people do.
Today she said: ‘Labour dismisses concerns of its supporters about genocide in Gaza. Claims only Muslims care. Shameful. #FreePalestine’
Jess Phillips appears to mocks Tory response to disastrous local elections
Labour MP Jess Phillips has appeared to mock the Conservatives’ response to their disastrous results in the local elections as ‘weird’.
In a Tweet this morning she wrote: ‘Is there some psychological study that was done that politicians have read that says, “you will win more votes if you act really cheery and borderline unhinged when faced with massive losses.”
‘Does it convince voters in the future if you insist the sky is purple. It’s weird.’
She added: ‘Can we not just say, I’m upset about this, I wish it had been different and I’ll crack on making it so?’
Reform votes will make Starmer PM, Tory says
The Tories have claimed a vote for the Reform Party is effectively a vote for Labour.
The data seems to back that up. Psephologist John Curtis pointed out that in the the areas Reform ran, the Tories were down 17 per cent on average while in areas they didn’t rub, the Conservative vote was only down 11 per cent.
Science minister Andrew Griffith (pictured) told BBC: ‘If you vote for reform, you are going to get a Labour government, a Labour council, a Labour mayor.
‘You are going to get Keir Starmer in No 10 and an illegal immigrant amnesty.’
When are the results expected?
Although declaration times may vary, these are times when results are expected to come in:
Mayoral elections
Liverpool City Region: Midday
London: Official time to be confirmed, but the picture should become clear around 1.30pm
South Yorkshire: 2pm
West Midlands: 3pm
Yorkshire: 3.15pm
Greater Manchester: 4pm
Salford: 5pm
Council elections
North Tyneside, Stroud, Warrington: 4pm
Epping Forest: To be confirmed
Sunak braces for West Midlands mayoral result
Rishi Sunak is braced for the result of key mayoral elections in London and the West Midlands, after the Conservatives were trounced in the first day of local election results.
As Friday’s result declarations closed, the Conservatives had suffered a net loss of 371 seats, and lost control of 10 councils.
Despite widespread losses, the Prime Minister appeared to take solace from the Tories’ win in the Tees Valley mayoral election.
All eyes will now turn to mayoral contests in London and the West Midlands, the results of which will be declared on Saturday.
Labour incumbent Sadiq Khan is now believed to have a closer-than-expected contest with Tory challenger Susan Hall in the capital, while a narrow contest is also likely for West Midlands Tory mayor Andy Streets (pictured).
Labour insiders have claimed that the mayoral election for London is on a knife edge, as bookies have slashed their odds on a shock defeat for Sadiq Khan.
Labour jitters were already spreading over Sadiq Khan’s prospects in London amid claims of low turnout and a Gaza backlash.
Polls ahead of the election on Thursday suggested the incumbent, Khan, was on track for a comfortable victory over his Tory rival.
The final surveys gave him a lead of between 10 and 22 points. Yet rumours have been circulating today that it could be significantly closer, with senior figures pointing to the impact of Gaza on other results across England.
Mr Khan has faced intense scrutiny over his record on law and order during the campaign.