Sadiq Khan pulled ahead in early results for the London mayor election today despite rumours he could be in trouble.
Votes are being counted in the capital after Labour insiders were spooked by rumours that Tory candidate Susan Hall could pull off a shock.
Figures from Merton and Wandsworth and Greenwich and Lewisham suggest that Mr Khan has seen a swing towards him from Conservative voters – although there is a long way to go.
Polls in the run up to the ballot on Thursday had shown Mr Khan with a comfortable lead of between 10 and 22 points.
However, jitters started spreading through Labour circles yesterday over a spike in turnout in outer London – typically dominated by Conservative voters and where anger about the ULEZ expansion has been most fierce.
Supporters of Mr Khan are worried that he could have been damaged by a wider trend of Muslim voters shunning Labour over Keir Starmer‘s strong support for Israel.
But Labour aides were said to be ‘looking confident’ at the count this morning. And on a visit to Mansfield Sir Keir insisted he is ‘confident’ that Mr Khan can keep control of City Hall.
Official turnout figures last night suggested it had been higher in outer London and lower in inner London – Mr Khan’s normal stronghold.
Sadiq Khan with his wife Saadiya this morning as his bid for a third term as London mayor hangs in the balance
The count taking place at the ExCel centre in London today
Polls ahead of the election suggested that the incumbent was on track for a comfortable victory over Tory rival Susan Hall (pictured)
On a visit to Mansfield this morning, Keir Starmer (pictured with new East Midlands mayor Claire Ward) insisted he is ‘confident’ that Mr Khan can keep control of City Hall
The final surveys gave Mr Khan a lead of between 10 and 22 points
Mr Khan won 83,792 votes in Greenwich and Lewisham, one of the first London boroughs to declare its mayoral vote, with Conservative Susan Hall on 36,822 and Zoe Garbett of the Greens third with 11,209.
That was equivalent to a 4.5 per cent swing from the Tories to Labour compared to the previous contest in 2021.
In Merton and Wandsworth Mr Khan received 84,725 and Ms Hall 50,976.
That was a 5.1 per cent swing away from the Conservatives.
The row over the expansion of the £12.50-a-day ULEZ charge was previously credited with helping the Tories to cling on in the Uxbridge by-election, although Mr Khan’s team had hoped the fallout was dissipating.
Mr Khan was one of the first Labour politicians to call for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, but Sir Keir’s strong support for Israel’s right to self-defence caused anger among many supporters.
There was evidence of that in the results yesterday, with Labour losing overall control of Oldham council after independents claimed seats.
One senior ally of Mr Khan told MailOnline that it is ‘going to be close’. ‘The polls were rubbish,’ they added. ‘London is exceptionally difficult to poll.’
Another political veteran, who still believes Mr Khan will win, pointed out that Labour has not been performing well in local council by-elections.
But Sir Keir said: ‘Sadiq Khan was absolutely the right candidate. He has got two terms of delivery behind him and I am confident that he has got another term of delivery in front of him.’
Asked on Sky News yesterday about the jitters, shadow health secretary Wes Streeting – MP for Ilford North – said: ‘We’ve always feared this race will be close.’
He highlighted that Mr Khan only won the first round of voting by 5 per cent in 2021. Since then the government has changed the voting system to first past the post, meaning Mr Khan will not benefit from second preferences of Greens and Lib Dems.
‘We were warning Londoners you know, don’t take the risk of waking up with a Conservative mayor,’ Mr Streeting said.
He went on: ‘It is too early to say yet what we think the result will be, verification of votes are taking place today the counting will be tomorrow.
‘I mean, based on what I saw in my own constituency and bearing in mind the last election a few years ago – Sadiq lost every ward in Iford North bar one – I felt that there was a bit more support for him this time in my constituency.
The count taking place at the ExCel centre in London today
Asked on Sky News yesterday about the London jitters, shadow health secretary Wes Streeting – MP for Ilford North – said: ‘We’ve always feared this race will be close.’
‘There are people who are angry with him about Ulez we sort of had that argument of following the Uxbridge by election.
‘And, you know, I didn’t agree with him, but he stuck to his guns, stuck to his convictions. Fair enough.’
Mr Streeting hit out at racial abuse suffered by Mr Khan, but acknowledged that Gaza could be a factor in the election.
‘There’s no doubt looking at some of the results across the country that have already come in that Gaza has been an issue,’ he said.
‘And I say say that with great respect to voters who sent us a message on Gaza. So we’ll have to wait and see where the results come in.’
Betfair spokesman Sam Rosbottom said: ‘While Sadiq Khan remains the favourite to win the race for London Mayor this morning, doubts are clearly creeping in and Betfair Exchange punters are now seriously eyeing Tory rival Susan Hall as a contender.’