STEPHEN GLOVER: If Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer have been GPs…

Rishi Sunak was probably exaggerating when he said in his speech yesterday that ‘more will change in the next five years than in the last 30’.

But we do live in an age of flux and uncertainty, and the Prime Minister has quite cleverly put his finger on the nation’s pulse.

I doubt, in fact, that any election has taken place in recent history at a time when there was more disquiet and unease about the way the world is going.

Although public alarm was obviously high at the outbreak of war in 1939, there hadn’t been an election since 1935, when the prospect of another conflict still seemed distant to many.

In 1974, Tory Prime Minister Ted Heath went to the country as Britain was mired in strikes and suffering the economic shocks of an oil crisis. But I doubt there was as much fear about the future as there is today.

People are gloomier than ever, and not just because the convulsions of the pandemic are vivid in many minds, and the country is only at last emerging from a long economic malaise.

There is a sense of unprecedentedly rapid change, and of old values being challenged and undermined. We don’t live in a happy country.

Mr Sunak focused on three issues that are contributing to public angst: the threat of war, mass migration and artificial intelligence, which he said carries benefits as well as dangers. His message was that the electorate should have more confidence in the Tories than in Labour to steer the nation through turbulent waters.

Let’s put AI to one side for the moment. Many people will reasonably say that Rishi has an infernal cheek. Given the Conservatives’ pretty abysmal record on defence and mass immigration, it’s hard to see why voters should have confidence in their ability to do better next time.

Admittedly the Government recently announced a modest increase in defence expenditure from around 2.3 to 2.5 per cent of GDP by 2030. But this only repeats a pledge made by Boris Johnson as Prime Minister nearly two years ago.

David Cameron, then PM now our lordly Foreign Secretary, slashed the defence budget by 8 per cent.

The Tories have underfunded the Army, Navy and RAF for 14 years. It took wars in Europe and the Middle East for Mr Sunak finally to see the light. Even so, it is certain that increasing the defence budget by a fairly small margin to 2.5 per cent won’t be enough to address present dangers.

As for immigration, the Tories have presided over the largest increase in the number of people arriving here legally in our history. The net figure of 745,000 for 2022 was more than double the pre-Brexit high in 2015.

The Prime Minister talked more in his speech about illegal immigration but here too — with the numbers crossing the Channel rising and not a single migrant yet packed off to Rwanda — he has nothing to boast about.

In view of the Tories’ performance on both defence and migration — before Rishi came to office and during his 19-month stint in No 10 — he might have been well advised not to have banged his drum quite so triumphantly.

And yet — and this is the paradox — I think it’s perfectly possible that voters could be convinced that, despite everything, the Conservatives are more to be trusted than Labour on these two defining issues, as well as on much else.

The reason is Sir Keir Starmer. I am thinking of his extreme caution, his almost comically transparent calculation, and his lack of abiding principle.

Look at Labour’s response to the Government’s announcement of an increase in defence spending. Instead of doing the obvious thing — namely, immediately matching Mr Sunak’s pledge — Sir Keir merely said that Labour would get to 2.5 per cent when economic conditions allow.

Presumably he was afraid that if he undertook to follow the Tories, he would be asked where the extra money is coming from. His timidity was characteristic. At a moment of international crisis, with Russia on a war footing and making advances in Ukraine, Sir Keir lacks the courage and political acumen to commit to doing the right thing.

He is similarly vulnerable on immigration. Having berated the Government over its Rwanda scheme, he has failed to produce an intelligible alternative policy capable of convincing voters.

And while the Government seems belatedly to be getting legal immigration under control — though there’s a long way to go — neither Sir Keir nor Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper is likely to persuade the electorate that they would take the issue seriously.

The unspoken truth is that many Labour MPs are relaxed about uncontrolled immigration, and indeed favour it. Sir Keir has never given us reason to believe that he shares, or even understands, the public’s dislike of it.

Disappointing though the Tories’ record has been on these two fronts, it’s not preposterous for Rishi to maintain that he would do better than Sir Keir Starmer. It’s possible that enough voters will believe him.

Every time the Russians make a further advance in Ukraine, people will ask themselves: whom do I trust more, Rishi or Sir Keir? When — or if — migrants are sent to Rwanda, many will say: at least the Tories have a plan that’s beginning to work, even if it is incredibly expensive.

Of course, there are some issues where it’s impossible to imagine the Tories catching up Labour. The NHS would be one. But in some other areas — the improving economy, for example — Mr Sunak’s pitch could be more convincing to many ears than Sir Keir’s.

I certainly don’t think that Rishi’s speech was a humdinger. He tried to cram the kitchen sink and too much else into it. Nor is he a great orator. This wasn’t Winston Churchill confronting the gathering storm.

But in warning of ‘dangerous years ahead’ and in saying, rightly, that the world is closer to nuclear war than it has been since the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, the PM touches a nerve. And in invoking the alarming pace of change, he reaches many troubled hearts.

On artificial intelligence, he convinced me that he understands its dangers and benefits better than Sir Keir Starmer, who seems scarcely to have thought about it. Rishi called an international conference on AI last November, let’s not forget.

Mr Sunak is offering himself as a leader who has considered the perils facing us. Yet unlike the chameleon Sir Keir — who exudes waves of gloom as he bangs on about decline — the PM is a sunny and optimistic soul.

This was a foretaste of the election. If they were doctors, Sir Keir would be the one telling you that you have six months to live, and he can’t make up his mind which medicines to give you. Mr Sunak would say, having conceded the previous operation didn’t go entirely according to plan, that there definitely is a future.

And do you know what? Rishi might just pull it off.