Two key conflicts around the world could be possible flashpoints for the escalation of global war, experts have explained.
The news comes as China has begun conducting what have been described as “punishment drills” in the media coinciding with Taiwan’s election of President Lai Ching-te. Along with ongoing conflicts in Gaza, Ukraine and beyond, concerns have been simmering about any of these fights spilling over and pulling the world’s major powers.
“I don’t think that it’s going to be China or Taiwan,” said Matthew Powell, a conflict and defence specialist from the University of Portsmouth. “I think that [because of] the way the West, in general, responded to the invasion of Ukraine, the Chinese feel any action over Taiwan will yield a major reaction from the US and so won’t want to do anything too overt.
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“I still think that the biggest flashpoint is going to be Israel [and] Gaza. I think that’s got the potential with all the interests in the region [like] Saudia Arabia, Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Egypt. You’ve got all these nations that are increasing their predominance of the Middle East.
(Image: AFP via Getty Images)
“The West has got interests in that area as well in terms of Arabic nations – the West are big supporters of Saudi Arabia. I think this is where you’re going to see the major flash points.
“In terms of Russia and Ukraine, it’s not stable by any means but both sides seem to be accepting what the other is doing. What Russia is doing is increasing the rhetoric and the threat of nuclear strikes against the West for continuing to support Ukraine – it’s unlikely they’ll do that because of the consequences that will follow – so I think there’s a stalemate there. The West doesn’t seem to be overly keen on providing Ukraine with increased weapons at the moment.”
(Image: Getty Images)
Matthew continued: “The way the Israelis view the fighting is as an existential crisis, fighting for Israel’s existence. The way they’ve gone about in conducting it that’s not going to make friends and will make them more isolated, then you become more willing to take risks.”
But, despite all of this Matthew felt that it wasn’t the likely “deliberate” intentions of leaders that would create flashpoints. Instead, he thought it would be “mistakes and missteps, perhaps not fully understanding how an adversary is going to react.”
He, however, didn’t think that any, even the ongoing conflict in Gaza, was likely to spill out and cause an escalation between major powers.
(Image: Getty Images)
“I’m not sure any of these is going to lead to a major global conflict between the major powers of the world.”
General Sir Richard Barrons agreed that it seemed unlikely Taiwan would be the reason for major escalation. “I agree Taiwan is a hotspot and has enormous consequences hanging off it, but I don’t think it is the most likely flashpoint just now,” he said. “Taiwan is a really serious issue, but also well understood and rehearsed, so less likely to erupt. It would crash the global economy, including wrecking Chinese prospects and stability.
“The most likely flashpoint with China is with the Philippines over the small disputed islands and the ‘9 dash line’. The risks for China are much lower than for Taiwan.
(Image: Israeli Army/AFP via Getty Image)
“The risk of a regional war erupting in the Middle East is under control now, but the risks from a deepening of the crisis around Gaza and the West Bank are still there.
“The Russian confrontation with the West is about much more than Ukraine, but circumstances in Ukraine could still spiral up into the Russia/NATO war everybody sane wants to avoid. If China is now supplying Russia with lethal material to use in Ukraine that could become a game changer and far more dangerous – but not proven yet.”
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