Will Trump’s conviction matter to voters?

Former President Donald Trump made history Thursday by becoming the first ex-president to ever be convicted of a crime

But polling data from NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist that dropped earlier in the day showed a common theme across party lines and demographics.

Voters are ambivalent about the outcome of the case. 

Two-thirds of voters – 67 percent – told pollsters that a guilty outcome of the Trump hush money case would have no impact at all on their vote in the fall. 

The group most likely to decide Trump and President Joe Biden‘s fate – that of independents – cared even less. 

On Thursday, former President Donald Trump became the first ex-president in U.S. history to become convicted of a crime as he’s also his party’s presumptive 2024 presidential nominee 

Polling data from NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist that dropped earlier Thursday showed a common theme across party lines and demographics – that. most Americans’ votes wouldn’t change if Trump was found guilty 

The survey found that 74 percent of independents said a guilty verdict wouldn’t change their vote.

That number is compared to 65 percent of Democrats and 64 percent of Republicans. 

Additionally, 25 percent of Republicans answered that they would be more likely to cast a ballot for Trump if he was found guilty in the hush money case. 

Late Thursday afternoon a Manhattan jury found Trump guilty on all 34 counts of falsifying business records related to hush money payments paid to porn star Stormy Daniels ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

Overall, just 15 percent of voters said they’d be more likely to vote for him if this outcome occurred, while 17 percent said they’d be less likely. 

The Marist survey was conducted from May 21 to May 23 when the hush money trial was already underway. 

Voters shrugged when asked if Trump being found guilty would impact their general election vote, a survey released Thursday indicated 

An earlier PBS NewsHour/NPR, Maris poll, which was released on May 1, found the electorate largely uninterested in the trial then too. 

In that survey, 55 percent of Americans said they were paying little to no attention to the hush money trial. 

That poll also found that 45 percent of Americans said the Trump investigations are unfair and designed to obstruct the 2024 presidential election.  

In both surveys Biden held a slight lead over Trump nationwide – 50 percent to 48 percent – which is in the poll’s plus or minus 3.7 percent margin of error. 

Recent swing state polls, however, show Biden trailing Trump in a number of battleground states.